Southampton–Blackburn

The floodlights at St. Mary's cast long shadows across the pitch, and it's on nights like these that teams in flux really show who they are. Southampton are unstoppable, and when Blackburn visit, at a stage of the season where everything is at stake, there's a smell of pace, intensity – and goals.

The home team is no longer just chasing the playoffs, but has started to cast its eyes up the table towards direct promotion and the Premier League. With only 12 points left to play for, and a form curve that points straight to the sky, this is a team that plays with both confidence and hunger.

Southampton – the department's form team

Southampton are currently the best team in the Championship. A 17-game unbeaten run (13-4-0) speaks for itself, and when they also knocked out Arsenal in the FA Cup earlier in April, it's hard not to be impressed. Offensively, they also deliver the goods: 31 goals in 20 home games are evidence of a team that creates enough to break most people. They have won 11 of their last 15 games, and even when they go down – as they did against Derby last time – they find their way back. This is a team that not only wins games, but also pushes forward goals.

In addition, there are few concerns related to the squad and injury situation for the gang from the south coast. More changes are expected, with both Shea Charles and Kuryu Matsuki likely to start. Up front, Cyle Larin could be trusted centrally in the attack, probably at the expense of Ross Stewart, while Cameron Archer is still an option that can be used. There could also be adjustments at the back, with Nathan Wood getting playing time in central defence – potentially in for Jack Stephens.

Blackburn – towards renewed contract

Blackburn, on the other hand, are fighting a completely different battle. They are four points above the relegation zone, but with Oxford facing a tough away game against Derby, and Portsmouth and Leicester facing each other, it would take a lot for the situation to deteriorate dramatically this round. At the same time, they are a team that is plagued by injuries, with several first-team players out, and who have only won 3 of their last 10 away games.

They have shown the ability to resist – including 3-2-0 in their last five – but this feels like a completely different task. Southampton's form, combined with Blackburn's challenges, makes this a match where the away team could quickly find themselves in a tight spot.

O'Neill could use the opportunity to freshen up the Blackburn side, with Taylor Gardner-Hickman a possible return to midfield. There could also be changes up front - Yuki Ohashi has played three straight 90 minutes without finding the net, opening the door for Mathias Jørgensen to get a chance. Meanwhile, Scott Wharton's hamstring injury is still being assessed, but at such a critical stage of the relegation battle there is little indication that O'Neill will take unnecessary chances with the defender.

Conclusion – we believe in the home team

So we are left with the following; a Southampton team in great form, with the promotion dream alive, at home in one of the league's toughest arenas – and a Blackburn team that will primarily survive. When the hosts have also scored consistently, and show an ability to both turn games around and dominate them, a lot points in one direction. This team creates enough, presses enough, and delivers well enough to pass the following line;

Championship at 21:00: Southampton - Blackburn: Southampton over 1.5 goals (1.76)

If anyone is worried about Blackburn's good defensive form, they can look towards corners. The home team will probably dominate the play, and if there are no goals, the home team could easily get a lot of corners.

They are producing 5.56 on average so far this year, and Blackburn are giving away 4.98. So if goals aren't your thing, you might consider the following bets;

Championship at 21:00: Southampton - Blackburn: Southampton over 5.5 corners (1.66)