Sierra – Siegemund 06-07-2025

After two days where almost everything went our way, we've had three lean days from the women's Wimbledon. But last night's match between Sabalenka and Raducanu gave us renewed faith that it is possible to predict correctly. And when our personal favorite is going to step into the ring against a lucky loser, we have to try.

Solana Sierra

It's only been a few days since we last had Sierra under the microscope, and back then she surprised us. And even though she's still only 21 years old, she's probably grown considerably in recent days. Because as we wrote last time; Sierra was supposed to be out of Wimbledon, but was still allowed in after another player had to withdraw. And Argentina's best female tennis player has grabbed that opportunity with both hands.

Beating Boulter on home court is impressive. But without stepping on any Argentine toes, it is fair to say that Boulter beat herself in that match. The Briton made a whopping 14 (!) double faults, and then it becomes difficult to hold her own serve. And if you don't, you lose tennis matches. Which she did. But there is much to suggest that she cannot rely on the same tactics against Siegemund.

In the following round, Sierra drew one of the few players ranked lower than her, Spain's Cristina Bucşa. And once again she had to go out in three sets to advance. And thus she has shattered her personal best in a Grand Slam, as Sierra has never won the first round before. Now she is in the round of 16. But she has three 3-setters behind her, and will possibly feel the wear and tear here.

But no one should take away from her the magnitude of the performance she has delivered so far this week, and not least how impressively she has taken care of the golden opportunity she was given after she lost in qualifying. We mentioned it last time, how dangerous it is to play against players who have been given the gift of life. But this time we think it is over. For Sierra is an aggressive baseline player who is fueled by opponents who hit hard, are aggressive and produce their own mistakes. Just like Boulter did. In Siegmund she meets something completely new.

Laura Siegemund

The German has become our personal favorite at this year's Wimbledon. We gave her a handicap in the match no one thought she could win, against Fernandez, and then she sent her opponent home to Canada with a 2-0. And we were convinced that she would give the world No. 8, Madison Keys, a fight, and ended up with an overmatch. We regret that bitterly, when she sent a new player across the Atlantic with a 2-0. But we have learned.

Because even though Siegemund is now 37 years old, she moves like a cat on the grass. And it's not just her footwork that is made for the grass. Her unique hitting technique has also frustrated players for several rounds now. Because we saw how Keys struggled to attack Siegemund's unorthodox forehand slice. It's not often you see a slice on the forehand side, but every time Keys tried to counter when the ball came from the German's forehand, she hit the net. And the aggressive Argentine could easily experience the same.

Keys tried to get as many balls as possible onto the German's backhand, and in that way became very locked into her style. Very predictable. And she lost a lot of the opportunity to vary. So it remains to be seen what tactics Sierra chooses. Because it is reasonable to assume that she is well prepared. But should she try to avoid Siegemund's forehand, the German has other tools in his toolbox. Just look here;

• She has produced 1, 0 and 1 double fault in her three matches this week.
• She won 95% of the points on Keys' 2nd serve.
• She has served in 67%, 69% and 80% of her first serves so far at Wimbledon.
• She won 80% of the balls at the net against Keys.

And the impressive online statistics are no coincidence. Siegemund has been ranked No. 4 in the world in doubles, and in doubles it's all about taking the net. And although she has never been further than the 4th round of Wimbledon in singles, she has two quarterfinals behind her in doubles. So both playing style and experience suggest that it is Siegemund who will advance from here. So we can rather ignore the fact that the German is ranked a few places below Sierra. That is due to a rather lean 2025. But as soon as the grass turned green, most of it was forgotten.

Conclusion

We have been impressed by the aging German. And I promised myself to delve into Laura Siegemund if she advanced to Keys. And what I have found is a tactically astute player who has a playing style that is perfect for the surface. A playing style that is difficult to meet with aggression. And is it reasonable to expect that the young Argentine has had time to develop a plan-b? I don't think so. In addition, Sierra will not get any free points here, all the while Siegemund produces so few errors. She will put all the serves into the square, even if they are not the hardest, and she will send most of the balls back into the court with a tired screw. I think it will be too much for Sierra, and that her dream week is over. Therefore, I try the following play;

Tennis at 14:00: Sierra - Siegemund: Siegemund wins (1.65)

Alternative game:

Tennis at 12:00: Sierra – Siegemund: Siegemund wins -1.5 sets (2.60)