Shanghai Port – Yokohama F. Marinos 19-02-2025

We are at the final round of this year's AFC Champions League group stage, and the train is about to leave without Shanghai Port having found its place on board. This sets the stage for a very interesting showdown in the Chinese metropolis.

Analysis of the teams

Both of these two have a rich history in their domestic league. But while the home team secured league gold in the last round of the league, back in November, it has been a few years since Yokohama F. Marinos was a force to be reckoned with in J1. The old greats have breathed life into Steve Holland, and have kept most of their most important players in the hope of finding a return to the recipe for success.

Shanghai Port – life after Oscar

Kevin Muscat gained legend status back home in Australia when he led Melbourne Victory to The Double in 2015, and that also led to the door opening wide. Because after a short stay in Belgium, he took over the current away team, and led Yokohama F. Marinos to league gold in 2022. And when he now meets his old employer, he needs a helping hand.

Because Shanghai Port is in trouble. One round before the end they are outside the top 8, and if they don't get all the points here then the Champions League is over for this year. That would be a serious scratch on the paint for the Chinese giant. But there is hope. Because as many as six teams can end up inside/outside, and it is especially crucial that Pohang meets Johor DT. As long as none of them can get the full pot, Shanghai Port has a chance. But then they have to win, and they should preferably have a few goals.

But as mentioned, they must learn to live their new life without their long-time captain and star player, Oscar. The former Chelsea player left for Sao Paulo, leaving a void that none of the other five Brazilians have been able to fill. But with Matheus Vital, Matheus Jussa, Gabrielzinho, Gustavo and Leonardo as five of the front six, they should be strong. At least offensively.

Yokohama F. Marinos – the sleeping giant has awakened

As mentioned, it's been a while since our favorite team in Japan has delivered anything of high quality. But they are at the top of this year's CL table, and can stay there if they win this one. And they probably want to. But both Vissel Kobe and Kawasaki Frontale can get past if they stumble, and therefore we think the away team will also go for three points.

And they have the crew for that. The front three in particular is good. Also the Brazilians, actually. Elber, Yan Matheus and especially the team captain; Anderson Lopes are absolutely crucial to the team's success. But for those of you who are old enough, you may remember the injury-plagued express train that was at Arsenal; Ryo Miyaichi. He still runs fast, but is unfortunately still just as injured.

But they also have Japanese players who can play football, and my personal favorite is Kenta Inoue. The explosive winger can remind a bit of Shaqiri, in body shape. And to some extent also in playing style. And there is a good chance that he will start on the wing in Elber's absence.

We play on goal

When Shanghai Port and/or Yokohama F. Marinos are involved, you can almost bet blindly on goals. And especially now that advancement is in the pot. The home team has to advance, and the away team will take the counterattack space that will naturally open up. And should Shanghai Port take the lead, it will be Yokohama F. Marinos who has to advance, to regain the top of the table. This is the optimal starting point for a goal-rich match.

In addition, we should remember that Yokohama F. Marinos almost never manages to keep a clean sheet. Now they did it in the last CL match, which was a bit lucky, but the opening match in J1 this weekend was a good picture of the Yokohama team we know. 1-1 at home against Albirex Niigata. A match they should have won. And with a 61-62 goal difference in 38 matches, no one had a higher goal average in J1 than Yokohama F. Marinos last year. Then they clocked in 3.2 goals per match.

And with 96-30 in 30 league games, no one came close to the goal average Shanghai scored in the Super League last year. A whopping 4.2 goals per game. And that's why I think this game could explode quickly. Both teams have an offensive mentality, they have offensive players with qualities good enough to score goals, and there is an advancement in the pot. At least for the home team. That's why we're trying a game that we think will fall sharply towards the start of the game;

AFC Champions League: Shanghai Port – Yokohama F. Marinos: Over 2.5 goals (1.65)