Sarpsborg 08 – Viking – 09-07-2025

The cup is getting closer as there are now 4 teams fighting for the final ticket at Ullevaal Stadion. Sarpsborg is coming off a 3-1 win against Haugesund while Viking beat Strømsgodset 1-0. Sarpsborg had intentions of saving a number of players before this match, but stumbled at the start against Haugesund after a roar of dimensions from N'diaye. It was a slightly more tiring match than they expected and wanted with two late goals, especially as they get one less rest day than Viking. Viking, on the other hand, completely demolished Strømsgodset, even though it was only 1-0. They came away from the match without a scratch and without digging in the basement.

When the teams met in Stavanger in May, it was 0-0. Strictly speaking, there should have been goals there, with both teams missing big chances and Viking left with an xG of 1.96 and Sarpsborg with an xG of 0.66. The form has continued, and improved, for both teams since then. Sarpsborg is now undefeated in 5 matches, while Viking is undefeated in a total of 19 matches! Two teams that absolutely believe in a final meet, and this will be an even affair in a semi-final that could quickly take on a life of its own. The hosts announced on Sunday evening that over 5,600 tickets had been sold at Sarpsborg Stadium. Over a thousand of these are away fans. There will be good cooking in the summer sun in Sarpsborg!

Sarpsborg – Rising form and real belief in the cup final

Sarpsborg have not lost since Tromsø visited Sarpsborg Stadium in May and won 1-0, and are suddenly emerging as medal candidates in the Eliteserien. The 2-1 win in Bodø was particularly impressive, even though it was strictly speaking a robbery. They have also done well in the cup, where they have beaten RBK away, EIK away and Sandefjord at home on their way to the semi-finals. Now they face an even bigger test, but on a good day anything can happen. Sarpsborg have got their offensive playing style to sit under Michelsen. The chance production is consistently high, against Haugesund they ended with an xG of 2.07, and it was no worse against, for example, Bodø/Glimt (1.96) and FFK (2.55). They play consistently against most, they beat the teams below them and they also show that they can absolutely keep up with the teams above them. It is shown again with draws away against Viking, Brann, FFK and RBK (where they beat RBK on penalties in the cup), not to mention the away win against Bodø/Glimt. They have stumbled twice, once against Strømsgodset and once against Tromsø. It could be costly when we get to the end of the season, but with the form they are in now, the future certainly looks bright.

The squad looks good for Sarpsborg. They are still missing Sher, Hiim and Carstensen, but have done well without them lately. If Karlsbakk continues their great form, Falchener and Roseth will have to struggle. And a certain Tangen may have a little extra motivation here, as he is welcoming old teammates. Sarpsborg was last in the final in 2017, when they lost 3-2 to Lillestrøm. We actually have to go all the way back to 1951, the last time Sarpsborg won the cup, that time against Asker. Since then, there have been 3 final losses – time to reverse that trend!

Viking – Faith in "The Double" is starting to grow

Viking is not letting any chance get in the way of warming up for this match. Large parts of the squad were able to recover on Monday, before heading to Fredrikstad on Tuesday morning. Here they will be able to borrow FFK's facility for the warm-up, ironically Sarpsborg's arch-rival. The squad is injury-free, has strong belief in their own skills and a down-to-earth approach to the club's position during the day - extremely important for a club that has previously stumbled when things get tough. They know they will face tough opposition in Sarpsborg here, in a match that could easily go into extra time. Against both Moss and Ålesund, the goals came very late. Viking would prefer to avoid that before the Westlands derby at Brann Stadium on Sunday. Stensness and D'Agostino are still out for Viking, but have not had an impact this season.

The Viking hordes have mobilized for the away game – the away section is sold out like most other games these days, interest is naturally sky-high. In addition, big screens have been set up in Vågen in Stavanger, so there will be no shortage of support for the dark blues. There is no shortage of motivation either, they are very keen to go to Ullevaal to fill the trophy cabinet for the first time since 2019, the last time they won the cup.

Conclusion: Evenly played affair with two attacking teams

The first thing to check when these teams are involved is corner play. Viking averages sky-high on this front with 8.73 corners per game (6.14 away). Sarpsborg is not much worse with an average of 5.42 (7.17 at home). When these two met in May, it ended with 12 corners for Viking and 4 for Sarpsborg. These are two attacking teams, so there is no doubt that we will get chance production. There is a bit more uncertainty about how many will result in goals. The interesting thing here is that we get over 13.5 corners at 4.80 odds ! It is of course a solid high odds that should be taken with a pinch of salt, but the numbers speak for themselves, just look at this: In Sarpsborg's last 5 matches (all tournaments) there has been an average of 13.4 corners, while for Viking's part (all tournaments) the average is 13. If we take into account how many corners we got the last time the teams met, we can easily adjust down to, for example, over 10.5 corners and still get solid odds of 2.18. One thing is for sure, several variations of corner bets can be tried here, either on the teams individually or overall. Several singles at high odds can be run as some extra treats for the match!

The next thing to consider here is underplay. Simple and straightforward based on form and expectations of an even match. Viking are now coming from under 2.5 goals in their last 4 out of 5 matches. For Sarpsborg, only the last 2 out of 5 have gone under 2.5 goals, but the opposition they have faced here should also be taken into account. In any case, under 2.5 goals feels too risky in terms of odds (2.50 in odds), but under 3.5 goals is available at nice odds of 1.62 and is definitely relevant here.

Where do we land? The corner statistics of both teams are crazy. The odds are too good to ignore it. Cup matches can also live their own lives, so we go for a downgraded bet. We get that at nice odds that can be used on a single bet or combination bet with another match. And if there are any kroner to set aside for an ever so small high-odds bet (apart from the one presented above) then it can be spiced up with an alternative presented below.

NM Cup semi-final: Sarpsborg 08 – Viking: Over 9.5 corners (1.75)

Alternative games:

NM Cup semi-final: Sarpsborg 08 – Viking: Under 3.5 goals (1.62)

NM Cup semi-final: Sarpsborg 08 – Viking: Over 5.5 corners to Viking (2.17)

NM Cup semi-final: Sarpsborg 08 – Viking: Over 12.5 corners (3.65)