Sabalenka – Gauff 07-06-2025

Before the French Open started, there were radical voices who dared to say that this year's tournament could offer surprises. Especially on the men's side, and both Draper, Musetti and Rune were mentioned. But fortunately I have my words intact as I claimed that Grand Slams are often annoyingly predictable. This is because the five-set format usually kills the small element of luck/bad luck that a three-set format brings with it.

And here we are; No. 1 meets No. 2 in the men's final, and No. 1 meets No. 2 in the women's final. It doesn't get much more predictable than that. But fortunately the finals are wide open, and there are good arguments that all four can lift the trophy in the end. But let's first take a look at the women's final;

Sabalenka – Gauff: The odds give us room to maneuver

There is a lot to suggest that Sabalenka will win this one. She is the world's best tennis player, and probably wants to win a Grand Slam after her final loss in the Australian Open, as well as avenge her final loss to Gauff in the US Open in 2023. And she was also the winner when they met in the final in Madrid. But we should remember that the conditions in Madrid were much faster than they are in Paris, and that probably suited Sabalenka much better than Gauff. But here in Paris, it is suddenly Gauff who is on "home turf.".

Because here it's power versus speed. Sabalenka's raw strength was too much for Swiatek in the semifinals, but Gauff's speed and footwork mean that even greater demands are placed on stability and concentration, and defense could quickly become Gauff's opportunity here.

But she also has another option, and that is the first serve. It is very good, and perhaps even harder than Sabalenka's. But if her first serve percentage drops, her second serve is not much to brag about. And Sabalenka will step into the court and use her power from the baseline to exploit the times the American has to use both serves.

But there is little that separates them. Gauff is supposed to be a better clay court player, but Sabalenka is 18-2 on clay this year. In addition, they are No. 1 and No. 2 in the world, and to make it even more complicated; they are 5-5 in their head-to-head matches. And that is exactly why I think the odds are overly skewed. But don't get me wrong; I also think Sabalenka will win, and that was also my tip before the tournament started, which you can read here , but that doesn't mean the value can't lie elsewhere.

And finally; Sabalenka had to use three sets to win her semifinal, while Gauff only gave up three games to win hers. So the American faces a more rested start. But still, I dismissed my first thought of +4.5 games to Gauff. We saw what Sabalenka did to Swiatek in the 3rd set of the semi, and a set like that would completely ruin such a game. So that's why I'm landing on what in my eyes is a safer bet, despite the higher odds;

Tennis at 15:00: Sabalenka – Gauff: Over 20.5 games (1.70)