Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid 04-03-2025

When everything is at stake in the Champions League, the Madrid derby is more than just a match – it's a war for glory, history and a place among Europe's best.

Analysis of the teams

The Madrid derby between Real Madrid and Atlêtico Madrid is one of the most intense rivalries in European football. Traditionally, Real Madrid has been the dominant club, with a rich history full of trophies both nationally and internationally. Atlêtico Madrid, on the other hand, has often been seen as the "little brother" in the city, but over the last 10-15 years has proven to be a force to be reckoned with.

In the 2000s, Atlético had great difficulty winning against Real Madrid, and from 1999-2013 Atlético went 14 years without a win in a Madrid derby. The situation changed when Diego Simeone took over as head coach in 2011. His tactical discipline, defensive solidity and ability to create a team that was difficult to break down made Atlético a contender in both La Liga and the Champions League. And it is with this foundation that I have also found a game that I think is good value.

Real Madrid – the king of the Champions League

The Champions League has long been seen as Real Madrid's own little playground, where one big team after another has shown commitment and belief, only to be sent home empty-handed after 2×90 minutes against Los Blancos. But this season with a new set-up, Real have suddenly looked a little more variable. After 5 matches in the league, they were in 24th place, but an important 3-2 win away against Atalanta followed by a 3-0 win away against Brest, was not yet enough to secure a ticket to the knockout round. They had to go into a tough double clash against another team that has also struggled in the Champions League this year, namely Manchester City. But here you could clearly see that the All-Whites had now understood the seriousness, and they won both away (2-3) and at home (3-1) which secured them a place in the round of 16 against city rivals Atlêtico Madrid.

So far in the tournament they have 4 wins and 1 loss on their own turf and a 17-8 goal record, which shows that at home at the Santiago Bernabeu, in front of 80,000 home fans, goals are being delivered on a continuous basis. But what also characterizes Real Madrid in this year's tournament is that they have conceded goals in 9 out of 10 matches so far, and that is probably largely due to heavy losses to key players in the back four.

Carvajal knows we are out for the whole season with the ACL injury he suffered, Eder Militao is struggling with his knee, and in addition, both Dani Ceballos and Frederico Valverde have had to throw in the towel in recent games, and probably won't play here.

Atlêtico Madrid – the not-so-little "little brother"

Where the home team has been inconsistent in this year's Champions League season, we can say the opposite about Atlêtico. They finished the league in a solid 5th place, having won 6 and lost only 2, against tough opposition. A 2-1 home win against RB Leipzig, a 1-2 away win against PSG and a 2-1 home win against Leverkusen, testify to an Atlêtico team that can really compete with the big teams out there in Europe.

Diego Simeone probably saw the need for a bit more attacking firepower this season, to be able to play in more arenas at the same time, and money was well spent in the summer window to strengthen the squad and make it more competitive. Conor Gallagher was brought in from Chelsea, Alexander Sørloth was brought in from Villareal, Robin Le Normand came in from Real Sociedad and Julian Alvarez was bought for almost 800 million from Manchester City.
And the result of this is that they now lead La Liga and can make it to the quarter-finals of the Champions League, something that few of the team's passionate supporters could dream of before the season.

In their 4 away games so far in the Champions League, Atlêtico have found the net 12 times, which means that Real Madrid will really be tested over these 2 matches that await them when their "little brother" visits on Tuesday evening.
As for the injury situation for the guests, only Cesar Azpilicueta and Koke are missing, so here Diego Simeone has almost his entire squad at his disposal.

Therefore, we believe both teams will contribute with goals

Real Madrid come into this match with a 3-1-1 record and after Saturday's bitter 2-1 loss away to Betis, they know they have to improve a lot if they are to have any chance here. But at the same time, there is something about this Real team when it comes to the Champions League, then suddenly their big world stars stand out, and with Mbappe right up there who really seems to have settled in, this is going to be a match that you really should watch

Atlético Madrid come into this with a 2-3-0 record and full of confidence after a strong 1-0 win at home against Bilbao and a 4-4 goal show away against Barcelona in the Copa Del Rey semi-finals. And where Real might have had the biggest stars before, there are now some big names in Simeone's team too. And for Atlético fans this means that they no longer look at Real Madrid matches with fear. They know that their team can win, and that creates greater pride and belief that they can fight for big trophies. Simeone's leadership has contributed to a mentality where Atlético is not just an outsider, but a real contender.

When we look at the mutual matches, since September 2022 they have met each other 9 times in the series and cup, and all have ended with both teams scoring, and this is also precisely where I have landed in front of this match;

Champions League at 21:00: Real Madrid - Atlêtico Madrid: Both teams score (1.84)