Real Betis - Chelsea 28-05-2025

When technique meets pace: Who will lift the Conference League trophy?

The 2025 UEFA Conference League final will take place in Wrocław, Poland, where two teams with very different styles will meet to claim the trophy: Real Betis, with their possession-based and technical attacking style – and Chelsea, who play effective counter-attacking football with clinical finishing. Both have delivered in the tournament, but neither has previously faced an opponent with such a different playing style. On neutral ground and with a European trophy at stake, the stage is set for an intense and fascinating final.

Real Betis

Betis have emerged as one of the most structured and controlled teams in the tournament. They build from the back, actively use their full-backs and seek out wing combinations before crossing or through space. Over the course of 14 matches (7 home and 7 away), they have produced 17.7 shots per home game and 10 away, with an xG average of 1.84 home and 0.94 away – reflecting a team that dominates possession but doesn’t always convert their chances.

Corner production is very stable: over 4.5 corners in 71% of home matches and 86% of away matches, with an average of 5.6 and 4.3 per match. Regardless of the pitch, Betis are good at producing corners.

What worries them is efficiency. They score 1.43 goals on average, but often take a long time to convert chances. In a final, against a cynical team like Chelsea, it could be fatal.

Defensively, they are aggressive. A goal average of 1.71 at home and 3.29 away shows that they do not shy away from duels – and in a match with nerves, VAR and European refereeing, it can quickly turn into goal chaos if they come under pressure.

Chelsea

Chelsea have used the tournament to show that they are still a major European club, even without Champions League participation. They have blown through the group stages and the playoffs with 38 goals in 12 games, and with an extreme efficiency that exceeds xG in most matches.

The style of play is clear: Let the opponent have the ball, win the ball in favorable zones and use the speed of players like Madueke and Jackson. On the away field they have only had an average of 35% possession, but have been left with an average of 3 goals and a number of shots on goal. This is a team that does not need a lot of the ball to be dangerous.

Chelsea have had 3.5 corners against them on average throughout the tournament, but have not faced an opponent with such a different style as Betis. This could mean that we will quickly see more corners against them than normal.
They themselves produce few corners (3.3 on average away and 5.17 at home), and do not play for set pieces. But they do not need that either – the most important thing is that they are given space, and they will probably get that here.

Discipline has been good, with only 1.0 yellow cards on average. But in a final with high tempo, counterattacks and potential frustration, this can quickly turn around.

Form heading into the final

Real Betis have had a somewhat variable end to the season in La Liga, but have clearly prioritised the Conference League – both in terms of team selection and intensity. They ended the series with a 1–1 draw against Valencia and a 1–4 loss against Atlético Madrid, but have only lost once in their last ten matches in all competitions. Against teams with high pressure they have struggled more, but against Chelsea they are allowed to build their own game to a greater extent – ​​which suits them better.

Chelsea come into the final in significantly better form. After turning the Premier League season around with strong wins against Manchester United, Liverpool and Tottenham, they seem to have found solutions offensively. Defensively, they still have weaknesses – including two goals behind against both Legia Warsaw and Newcastle.

Is it possible to find stability in an unpredictable final?

Everything points to a match where Betis has the ball, while Chelsea are more direct and dangerous. When Betis builds wide, it creates space for counterattacks. If Chelsea takes the lead, Betis is forced to play with high risk. This means two things:

1. Corners for Betis – they will dominate the ball and have their crosses blocked. This has been an extremely stable market in the tournament.
2. Cards – finals mean nerves, and Betis' aggressive style is not compatible with being at the bottom. If there is frustration, cards will come.

With statistics and consideration of how the match will develop, we land on this as the best bet;

Conference League at 21:00: Real Betis - Chelsea: Over 3.5 corners to Real Betis (1.78)

Alternative games:

Chelsea scores against everyone, and Betis always creates enough to get their way. Two different styles meet, and both will have their periods. If Chelsea leads, Betis must go ahead – and then the match opens up.

Conference League at 21:00: Real Betis - Chelsea: Over 2.5 goals (1.98)

Betis average over two cards per game. Chelsea have a lower average, but this is a final. The referee is unlikely to spare the cards, and especially in the second half, things tend to escalate. Five cards is a low requirement in a match that can go to extra time and become emotional.

Conference League at 21:00: Real Betis - Chelsea: Over 4.5 cards in total (odds come closer to the start of the match)