RBC Heritage 04-17-2025

The Masters is over, and my tip Shane Lowry, decided to go from tied for fourth place before Sunday, to tied for 42nd place at the end. Nine strokes over par was the second worst of all that day, so I just have to laugh it off and move on. Now there is a new signature tournament and the RBC Heritage. And for some there will be a break now after the Masters, but there are plenty of class players in this tournament as well. And we are considering some of them here.

The track and area

The 2025 RBC Heritage is a signature tournament on the PGA Tour, with added prestige and prize money. It is played at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, and is a par 71 course that stretches over 7,213 yards. The iconic lighthouse at hole 18 is a well-known landmark and symbol of the tournament, but the course is also known for its narrow fairways, small greens and the need for precision over power, which challenges even the most experienced players. Pete Dye designed the course and he enjoyed creating optical illusions to trick players visually, and some are better at this than others.

The tournament has a limited field of 72 players, including eight of the world's top ten golfers. Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler, Ludvig Åberg and Collin Morikawa are among those who will be starting here. And because it is a signature tournament, there is no cut after 36 holes, so all 72 players get to play all four days.

Exciting players

Patrick Cantlay has been very good on average on Pete Dye courses, especially Harbour Town, which is currently being played, and TPC Sawgrass. He is also very precise on ball striking and very calculating and calm under pressure. His Green In Regulation statistics are a whopping 70.83%, which is 9th best of all on the PGA Tour, and if he misses on the shortest grass, he is number 63 in the statistics around the green. Cantlay has played 8 tournaments this year, and 50% have finished better than 15th place and 50% in 31st-36th place. On this course, however, he has done very well, because in seven starts he has a missed cut in 2021 and a 7th place in 2018, while in the other five starts he has four 3rd places and a 2nd place. A top 10 tip here might be interesting.

Collin Morikawa has the advantage of falling below number 17 this year, so he is always up there. He is one of the PGA Tour's best ball strikers, where he is best in the statistics SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Approach the Green and Driving Accuracy. He has had strong performances on Pete Dye courses with his precise iron play, and if he misses the green he is 34th best around the green as well, and in general scrambling he is no. 26, while his putting is in the middle of the tree with a 59th place. At Harbour Town Golf Links he has played five times, and from 2020 until last year he had the following results: 64-7-26-31-9.

Corey Conners was the only one who passed my tips at The Masters, and he is in good form. As I mentioned at the last tournament, he is also one of the Tour's best ball strikers with a 17th place on the list of Driving Accuracy, and he is very good with irons from the fairway. His slight weakness has been the last day of the tournaments, where he has mostly had his worst round of the four played, yet he has four tournaments top 8 in the last five. At Harbour Town he has varying results from 4th place to 44th place, so form has probably been a factor here. If he gets it right on day 4, he could suddenly be fighting for the victory.

Bud Cauley has made a remarkable comeback to the PGA Tour after a serious car accident in 2018 that resulted in multiple fractures and a collapsed lung. After nearly three years away from competitive play on the PGA Tour, he returned in 2024 on a medical waiver. This year, he has shown impressive form, with top-six finishes in The Players Championship, Valspar Championship and the Texas Open. Those performances have earned him enough FedEx Cup points to retain his tour card for the rest of the season. Before the accident, Cauley was ranked 9th here with an impressive 63 on Day 1, and he is ranked 8th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 15th SG: Approach-the-Green, and his playing style suits the course well here. So here we have a little outsider.

Conclusion

It could be that some are mentally tired after The Masters, but I have faith in the players over here. The problem with bets on Morikawa and partly Cantlay is that we have to go down to the top 5 and 10 to get anything back. So then I'm left with two in-form players in Conners and Cauley in a top 10, top 20 rating. Corey Conner's top 10 could be interesting, but his putter is a little cold at the moment, so I end up with a bet on comeback kid Bud Cauley. There could be a bit more risk in this bet, so keep units down to a sober level. Possibly take that bet down a bit, to the top 20, but I'm playing:

Golf at 2:00 PM: Bud Cauley top 10 (5.26)

Alternative Bets:
Golf 2pm: Corey Conners Top 10 (2.80)
Golf 2pm: Patrick Cantlay Top 10 (2.40)

Round's longshot:
Golf at 2:00 PM: Russel Henley leads day 1 (30.00)