RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich 03-05-2025

Should the Meisterschale return to Munich? 

A lot is at stake when a somewhat injury- and suspension-plagued RB Leipzig hosts a very injury- and suspension-plagued Bayern Munich on Saturday afternoon – with a win here, Bayern Munich can win the Bundesliga 24/25! A draw could also happen if Bayer Leverkusen mess things up against Freiburg on Sunday. In addition, RB Leipzig is chasing a Champions League place, and a win or loss here could be decisive to the highest degree with challenging opposition on the schedule in the final stretch. It looks like a duel with high intensity, many goals and a packed Red Bull Arena as the setting for Saturday's big game.

RB Leipzig – Unstable, but strong at home

RB Leipzig are coming off a stinging 0–4 defeat away to Eintracht Frankfurt, where Bitshiabu's red card early in the second half marked the match. It was a setback after a small upturn with wins against Hoffenheim and Wolfsburg, as well as a draw against Holstein Kiel. Form is mixed, but Leipzig have been solid at home – only one defeat in their last 11 games at the Red Bull Arena. Leipzig are missing key defensive names such as Willi Orban, Benjamin Henrichs and the suspended Bitshiabu. Gulacsi is uncertain, which could mean another chance for Vandevoordt. In addition, midfield engine Xaver Schlager is out. Leipzig will probably go out in a 4-4-2 with width and speed via Xavi Simons and Baku on the wings. Up front, the striker duo Sesko and Openda have the capacity to threaten Bayern from behind, especially given the visitors' injury problems in the defensive line.

Key statistics:

• Only 2 losses at home this season with +11 in goal difference
• Average of 1.87 goals at home
• 13 clean sheets this season, but haven't kept a clean sheet in their last 5 games
• The Simons – Openda combo has produced 23 goal points this season

Bayern Munich – On the hunt for gold without Kane and Musiala

Bayern comfortably won against Mainz (3–0) and are now just one win away from the Bundesliga title. They are unbeaten in their last nine away games and have scored a whopping 90 goals this season – by far the most in the league. But the team has been hit hard defensively: Davies, Upamecano, Ito and Musiala are out, and Harry Kane is serving a suspension. Vincent Kompany will therefore have to resort to alternative solutions, with Dier and Stanisic likely in central defence, and Thomas Müller in an unfamiliar striker role. Sané and Olise are expected on the wings, while the midfield is led by Kimmich. Without Musiala and Kane, Bayern lose creativity and goal guarantee, but the squad is still among the league's broadest and most dangerous.

Key statistics:

• 9 consecutive away games without a loss (6 wins)
• Undefeated in last 3 head-to-head matches – won 5-1 in December
• The league's highest scoring team by far: 90 goals in 31 matches, an average of 2.9 goals per match
• Only 1 away loss this year and stands with an impressive +26 in goal difference

It smells like goals and it smells like gold

Bayern will probably take control, but the injury problems open the way for Leipzig to fight back. A point could prove to be enough for Bayern, especially considering the goal difference. Both teams have weaknesses at the back, and with a lot to play for on both sides, it is difficult to imagine a goalless match. Even without goal guarantee Kane, Bayern can produce in diversity. Could this be the perfect match for Müller, where he can end his Bayern career in perfect fashion? Let's look at some current games:

• Over 3.5 goals (1.91): The last 3 of 5 head-to-head matches have ended with over 3.5 goals when these two meet. And the remaining 2 of 5 have ended with over 2.5 goals, so it will always be goal-rich. The only thing that creates an element of uncertainty here is injuries and suspensions – but maybe that's why it opens up the match?
• Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals (1.56): This is probably where most people think about this match, and it is reflected in the odds. Leipzig have scored in their last 4 out of 5 matches and Bayern have conceded in their last 3 out of 5 matches (all competitions), but Bayern have kept a clean sheet in their last two matches now, including against Mainz 05. This could open up the possibility of considering another high-odds bet: both teams not to score (2.80). We don't dare to go all the way, but it can certainly be considered a live bet.
• Bayern Munich wins (1.65): A pure marking game is tempting here. Bayern has enough qualities in the team on a good day, even with the injury list, to take on Leipzig. And with what is at stake, the motivation will be more than good enough. And the fans in Leipzig can be unforgiving for Leipzig's part, if things go a little wrong a little too quickly they will hear it. High shoulders can be decisive here, and Bayern win is obtained in our favor.
• Bayern Munich to win + over 2.5 goals (2.00): You can combine that, and it gives you good odds. With good chances for a goal-rich match (Bayern with over 2.5 in the last 5/5 and Leipzig with over 2.5 in the last 4/5) this could sit very well as a single bet.
• Goalscorer bet:
  Müller scores (2.60): This is a perfect match for the legend Müller, and here we will see the motivation as high as his debut in the Bundesliga. At good odds this will be a nice side bet in this match.
  Openda scores (2.75): Openda has had a good season and it will be crucial that he has a good day. With Simons in good form today, Openda will be served plenty of chances.

Everything is set for a golden celebration in Munich. And with Leipzig having a 0-4 loss in their bag from last weekend, they will have a tough time here. We go for the following bets:

Bundesliga at 15:30: RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich: Bayern Munich win (1.65) 

Alternative games: 

Bundesliga at 15:30: RB Leipzig – Bayern Munich: Over 3.5 goals (1.91) 

Bundesliga at 15:30: RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich: Müller scores (2.60)