RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich

The Bundesliga is back in full swing and we already have our third match since January 11th when RB Leipzig hosts Bayern – Leipzig’s second match and Bayern’s third to be precise. The main match of the weekend takes place at the Red Bull Arena, but in terms of the table this does not resemble a top match. There is a full 15 points separating the teams and a huge difference in goal difference. Leipzig may have played one less game, but the way Bayern are playing these days there is little to suggest that the trophy not end up in Bavaria. The home team has a rather unpleasant record against Bayern and was swept off the field by 6 goals when they met in the opening round. However, Leipzig has a brilliant home form, so basically Bayern will be tested here.

RB Leipzig - Fort Red Bull Arena

3. The place that Leipzig holds is thanks to a solid home form. Here they stand with PPG 2.63 and +15 in goal difference, far better than the away form with PPG 1.38 and -2 in goal difference. The one loss came, somewhat surprisingly, in the last game before the winter break against Leverkusen. Of the 6 goals they have conceded at home, 3 of these came against Leverkusen. Solid defensive structure combined with a young and fresh attack line has set the standard.

Leipzig still have a chance to win against Bayern at home – the closest they have come in recent times is 3-3 in May 2025 and 2-2 in 2023. But it has mostly been goal-rich when they have met – in the last 5 matches all have ended with over 2.5 goals, 3 of which with BTS. There are two attacking teams meeting, Bayern on steroids when it comes to scoring goals, which has occasionally made them a bit exposed at the back. It is Bayern in the lead and imbalance Leipzig must go for here.

Leipzig are coming off a solid 2-0 win over SC Freiburg on Wednesday, a game they controlled from start to finish. They created several big chances and finished with an xG of 2.48. It also looks like things are starting to loosen up on Leipzig's injury front. Nusa came on after 60 minutes against Freiburg and Klostermann also looks to be on his way back. Both of these will be important against Bayern – Leipzig need the best offensive firepower they have and Nusa is a big part of that. Ouedraogo and Gomis, two young talents, have also shown solid pace – especially the former, so it will be exciting to see what Leipzig can achieve offensively. They face a Bayern with firepower on the pitch and on the bench.

Bayern Munich – The season where they are most challenged to break their own records

Bayern are unstoppable in the Bundesliga this season. After 17 games they still have a chance to lose and are as good at home as they are away. The goal difference is a whopping +53, the closest anyone comes is Dortmund with +17! It is simply a raw team that has no weaknesses to show – Kompany can freely select a starting eleven that can wreak havoc with any team in the Bundesliga. And it has been proven: 6-0 against Leipzig, 3-0 against Leverkusen, 6-2 against Freiburg, 5-0 against Stuttgart, 8-1 against Wolfsburg. If a player is not having his day, then a substitute is guaranteed to have his day. Routine and young raw talent shine through this Bayern squad and they deliver entertaining football week in and week out.

Bayern tops most of the statistics. Over 2.5 goals in 8 of 8 away matches, BTS in 4 of 8 away matches. xG is high, the number of shots is high, the corner statistics are high and in that sense you usually have a lot to choose from in terms of odds - depending on the opponent's statistics and the predicted match picture. The matches are coming close for Bayern these days and that will mean more rotation than what we saw in the fall. With a tight match schedule at this time of year, injuries also come a little more frequently. Davies is possibly expected to return, long-awaited. Boey is out with illness, but may be cleared in time. Laimer is not expected back until February and the same applies to Stanisic. Kimmich is expected back in a week's time and is unlikely to be risked for this match. And one man who is very happy to see back soon is Musiala - so we can only hope that he will return to form soon.

Some injuries and uncertainty in no way weaken Bayern. The attacking line is toxic as only that of Kane, Luis Diaz and Olise. Then you have Karl on the bench – a raw talent who delivers to the point every time he gets the chance. Here is a golden opportunity for Bayern to kick even more from the top – an opportunity they are unlikely to let pass by.

Conclusion: Goalkeeping, marking and shooting can be tempting here

If we look first and foremost at goal bets that are low on the list: 1.33 on over 2.5 goals is the best available at the time of writing. BTS is available at 1.41 and the combination of these two is available at a respectable 1.55, a safe and nice bet really. Leipzig has scored in all home games and Bayern has had an occasional tendency to fall behind, seen against both Cologne and Wolfsburg recently. Leipzig scoring is also set at low odds. If we look at the selection, we have to go all the way up to 5.25 for Leipzig to win and a sober 1.58 for Bayern to win. Bayern to win + over 2.5 goals is available at 1.93.

Besides a safe goal combination bet and marking, it is exciting to look at shots on goal and shots in general. Here you can often get good odds. Here we can look at the matches after the winter break for the sake of order, in addition to the match in August. Leipzig only has the one match, but here there were a total of 21 shots, 7 of these on goal. Overall, the match ended with 24 shots and 8 on goal. Bayern, on the other hand, ended up with 16 shots against Wolfsburg, 10 on goal and 19 shots, 8 on goal, against Cologne. Overall, in these two matches there were 24 shots, 13 on goal (Wolfsburg) and 27 shots, 11 on goal, against Cologne. When these two met in August, there were 19 shots from Bayern, 10 on goal, and 12 shots from Leipzig, 1 on goal. Basically, a decent statistic for Leipzig considering the result. If we also take a quick look at the season stats, we see that Leipzig averages 17.63 shots, 7.50 on target, at home. Bayern averages 18.75 shots, 8.50 on target, away. With all the stats on the table, we see good odds on such bets; over 26.5 shots are available at 1.70 and over 9.5 shots on target are available at 1.71.

One last thing worth checking is the corner stats. Leipzig average 5.88 corners at home, while Bayern average 5.25 away. When they met in August, they ended up with 10 corners. For Leipzig, the number of corners has been a bit up and down recently – for Bayern, it's been a straight line: 6 corners in each of the last 3 games. Over 9.5 corners are available at 1.81 and over 5.5 corners for Bayern are available at 1.77. The one that could be most tempting in that sense is the latter game.

All in all, there are several exciting variations here. Marking Bayern could be a nice bet, odds of 1.58 are pretty good on it. Two teams are expected to go all-in on attack and for 3 points. Goals are expected and it would be somewhat surprising if neither team scores, considering the recent form of both. Where the best value is found seems to be shots on target, with slightly better odds than shots overall. Leipzig's collapse against Leverkusen produced a whopping 34 shots, 15 on target. They will of course get a bigger test against Bayern here. And with 31 shots, 11 on target, last time they met, it sits well as a valuable bet at good odds. The main bet is here:

Germany at 18:30: RB Leizpig – Bayern Munich: Over 9.5 shots on goal (1.71)

Alternative bets:
Germany at 18:30: RB Leipzig – Bayern Munich: Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals (1.55)

Germany at 18:30: RB Leipzig – Bayern Munich: Over 26.5 shots (1.70)