Rally Islas Canarias 25-04-2025

Rally Islas Canarias is a newcomer to this year's rally calendar, and it has its main base in Las Palmas on Gran Canaria. After having now been through three races and three different surfaces, with asphalt, snow and gravel, we are now back on the hardest surface, asphalt. Elfyn Evans has proven to be the best driver overall in these three races, with a second place and two wins. On the asphalt surface in Monte-Carlo, Evans was beaten by Frenchman Sébastien Ogier, a race Ogier has won 10 times, so Evans can be said to be the "best of the rest" with a 2nd place. But will he be as good in a rally race that he has never driven before? If you read further down, you can at least see what I have found out.

Looking back, the challenges and the tires again

First, we have to look back a bit, and Safarirally went mostly as I predicted in the analysis, and we beat the bookmakers in five out of seven bets. But for the rally teams, there were plenty of challenges during that weekend, such as overheating, torrential rain, punctures, mechanical problems and damage to the cars. Although almost all the cars had problems during these four days, it was Toyota and Elfyn Evans who coped with the challenges best. Evans drove almost flawlessly throughout the race and was rewarded with victory. Ott Tänak was fastest throughout Friday, largely due to his starting position, but had problems with a driveshaft later on and lost his entire lead and more. After these problems for the Estonian, Evans led by so much that he was able to control the victory with calm and controlled driving on Sunday.

Now the WRC circus is back on asphalt, and we have the opportunity to look at how the drivers did in Monte-Carlo, as well as last year's asphalt race. But what is a bit special about this asphalt race is that it has never been run as a WRC race, and thus it will be "new" for most of the drivers. Only a few have driven here in lower classes and as juniors, as Sami Pajari did in 2021, Adrien Fourmaux in 2020 and Märitns Sesks in 2018. Otherwise, it will be a lot of new for everyone, even if they get to drive through all the speed stages beforehand to write notes for the race itself.

And for those of you who don't know what notes are, they are a detailed description of the road and the course they are driving, with short, simple signs and descriptions. These are the notes that the map reader reads out to the driver during the stage, and the map reader is always some distance ahead of the car when giving the information to the driver. For example, the map reader informs about the distance on the stretch before the next turn and how sharp the upcoming turn is, whether there are obstacles on the inside of the turn, and whether it becomes sharper or slacker at the exit of the turn. This way, the driver can know whether to have 120 km/h through the turn or 150 km/h, and whether he can cut the turn a little on the inside, or whether he has to follow the asphalt edge around the turn. All of these notes are written as signs on the block the map reader reads from, to use the least possible space, and which the map reader interprets and reads during the race.

There is no answer to the sheet music, but a Norwegian example of sheet music might be: "200 4+ short 50 / ][ to li hopp 150 2- in vdl 100" (This means the following: 200 = number of meters of stretch, 4+ = steepness of turn (usually graded from 1-6 where 1 is 90 degrees and 6 goes almost straight ahead, and + or – to divide the grading even more), short = short turn, 50 = number of meters of stretch, / = over, ][ = bridge, li = little, hopp = jump, 2- = almost 90 degree turn, vdl = veidele). I hope most people are following this, but let's just move on.

There has been, and will of course be, a lot of talk about the cars of the different teams, as well as the tires. Toyota continues to use the car they have used all year, while Hyundai switches again to the new version they used in Rally Sweden, where weight distribution and setup were improved, among other things. So it will be exciting to see how the new Hyundai behaves on asphalt, because after Rally Sweden it was said that it is built for future races and not snow/ice. The question is of course whether they have tested it enough on asphalt, or will they once again have to use the first day for adjustments?

Then there are the tires again, because we can't avoid them now either. Hankook debuted as a tire supplier on asphalt, snow and ice during the late season start at Rally Monte-Carlo. After the race, Hankook received a lot of positive feedback on the tires, including that they held up very well in terms of punctures. But because of the cool season, the drivers struggled to keep the tires warm before the start, so it became slippery at the start of each stage until the rubber warmed up enough. This was probably not just the tires, but also a bit because of the low temperatures in the asphalt, and for those who remember, Neuville trusted the tires a little too much and drove off the road. Now a new race will be run on asphalt, and I have found little information about Hankook having made any changes to the tires after Monte-Carlo. But they come with a full range of asphalt tires with different rubber compounds. Because here the problems can be the opposite of what they were in Monte-Carlo, where tires that are too hot can wear out faster and make the car more unstable.

However, a big change has been made in this race compared to Monte-Carlo, and that is that the organizer has created a tire warming zone before each stage, and this allows the drivers to start the stage with warm tires and very good grip, so that the first kilometers will not be driven with such varying grip as in Monte-Carlo. And tires will be a big and difficult factor here, because the asphalt in the Canary Islands is known to be very slippery, especially if it rains. The asphalt contains a lot of volcanic rock, which gives a hard but dense surface with less microtexture than regular asphalt. This reduces friction and provides less grip than on traditional European asphalt. If it rains on the roads during the rally, it can therefore become very slippery, because the volcanic asphalt has less drainage capacity. And when it gets wet, a "soap effect" can occur where the water forms a thin layer on the surface, which greatly reduces the grip of the cars. Therefore, tire choice becomes very, very important.

Rally Islas Canarias is, as I said, a newcomer to the WRC, but has been running as an ERC (European Rally Championship) race for many years, and as mentioned, a few have driven here before. The rally is known for its narrow and winding roads that go through mountainous areas and down to coastal areas, with many tight hairpin bends and constant changes in altitude. The roads are narrow with little room for error, as there are often stone walls or cliffs on one side of the road and cliffs on the other, and a small misjudgment can have fatal consequences. Because the roads run both in the mountains and along the coast, there can also be changing weather conditions. And even though the race is on a sunny island, the mountainous areas of the Canary Islands can suddenly bring showers or fog, so all of these factors must be taken into account by the teams when choosing tires for the different speed stages. If they encounter rain showers on the wrong tires, they can end up in the rock face or off the cliff.

Race info

Rally Islas Canarias will run over three days and will consist of 18 special stages totaling 301.30 km, divided into 118.84 km on Friday, 124.08 km on Saturday and 58.38 km on Sunday. Here too, 10 cars are entered in the toughest class, 5 from Toyota, 3 from Hyundai and 2 in Ford from M-Sport.
For Hyundai, Thierry Neuville, Ott Tänak and Adrien Fourmaux are driving. For Toyota, these five are driving: Sébastien Ogier, Elfyn Evans, Kalle Rovanperä, Takamoto Katsuta and Sami Pajari. For Ford, these two are at the start; Gregoire Munster and Josh McErlean.

The race has its main base and service park in Las Palmas, while the actual driving is spread more or less around the entire island, where on day 1 four of the speed stages take place in the middle of the island and two on the west side, day 2 takes place four stages on the north side, two in the middle and one in Las Palmas, while on Sunday all five take place on the south side of the island.

So let's go through the best drivers

Thierry Neuville has now had three races in his body and mind after all the fuss surrounding his world championship title last year, so now he should start delivering a little more. And it has gone in the right direction for the Belgian, because after a weak 6th place in Monte-Carlo, he came 3rd in Sweden, and another 3rd place in Kenya recently. The fact that they are going back to asphalt in this race probably doesn't bother Neuville, because he has a lot of experience on that surface. Last year he won Monte-Carlo, came 3rd in Croatia and Central European, and got 6th place in Japan. But we don't attach much importance to the race in Japan, as he just wanted to get to the finish line without risking securing the title. Neuville drove the Rally Sierra Morena in southern Spain at the beginning of April to get a little more feel for the car, setup and not least the tires. He said along the way that they have worked a lot on the car and setup, so that he feels more comfortable with the car now. On Saturday he was the fastest of the Rally1 cars, but things were about to go wrong, because in a right-hand bend his rear wheels lost grip and he slid straight into the guardrail. Earlier in the day someone else had done the same, so the guardrail gave way a little instead of destroying Neuville's rear position, and he was able to continue after the crash. On Sunday he was the fastest on some stages, but he was most pleased to have had a lot of testing with the new tyres.

Ott Tänak has been fast this year, but he hasn't quite managed to put together the perfect race. Of course, much of this is to be blamed on his Hyundai i20 WRC, which has both argued and broken down, but Tänak himself has made some small mistakes that have cost time. The problem with such defects on the car and varying grip is something Tänak has complained about a lot in these three races. This of course means that the driving has not been the best. Tänak is probably more comfortable with gravel surfaces even though he has also won on asphalt, because most recently in the Central European Rally at the end of October last year, he won on this surface. Tänak's advantage is his experience on lots of different asphalt rallies because he has been involved for so long, and that could come in handy when they are going to drive a WRC race for the first time.

Kalle Rovanperä continues his poor season, and in Safarirally things didn't go any better. He did drive to two stage wins, but I credit that to the starting position. A driver error by cutting a corner too much meant that he ruined the rear position on the left side and lost a huge amount of time. He barely made it to the finish line on Saturday, and this culminated in a broken race on Sunday when the car wouldn't go any further. Rovanperä is Finnish, and the rallies they run there are on gravel, so asphalt is not his favorite, but he has won on asphalt before. Admittedly, this was during the period when he became world champion twice, but you shouldn't write him off completely. Rovanperä has driven a test in the Extremadura region of Spain to get a little more feel for the new Hankook tires, but he hasn't commented on the test to anyone afterwards.

Elfyn Evans continues to impress, and even though his victory in Safarirally was tipped by us, it was just as impressive. It seems that Evans has a completely different mental strength and is much more relaxed than he was last year, for example. Not only does he drive fast, but he makes the right choices at the right points. During Safarirally everyone had problems in one way or another, but Evans was the one who had the fewest and smallest problems, and thus the victory was more or less a foregone conclusion long before the last stage. Before this race, Evans did like Neuville by driving the Rally Sierra Morena in southern Spain at the beginning of April. There, both teams had full access to all Hankook tires, and on Saturday Neuville drove faster than Evans in all seven stages, while on Sunday they won three each. Evans has won rally races on asphalt before, including the Croatia Rally 2023 and the FORUM8 Rally Japan in 2023 and 2024. In addition, he has plenty of podiums on asphalt in various WRC races, so the Briton should not be written off.

Adrien Fourmaux started the season well with a 3rd place in Rally Monte-Carlo for his new employer Hyundai after he broke through last year's season, but then it stopped. A little too much adrenaline and a loose helmet strap in the Svenskerally ended in a snowdrift, while in the Safarirally there were punctures and trouble that caused him to break the race, not just once, but three times! Then Hyundai chose not to let him restart until Sunday, and instead prepare the car so that he could fight for the points on the last day. Then he delivered right away and took home 10 points, which is the maximum you can get on Supersunday. Fourmaux is a future winner of both the race and the title, so suddenly everything falls into place one day. Whether it will happen here is uncertain of course, but he is one of those who has driven this rally before. He did this as a Junior in 2020, and then he won his class by over a minute before Oliver Solberg. The Frenchman is familiar with driving on asphalt, and in Rally Japan, November 2024, he was No. 3 and in December he won a French asphalt race as a warm-up to Monte-Carlo. So asphalt he knows! But the boss at Hyundai is not happy with the Frenchman. He thinks Fourmaux is overdoing it after he has lost some time, and then mistakes come after mistakes, so he will probably be told to come to the finish here.

Takamoto Katsuta is going to win a rally soon, because he is gaining more and more experience, and he is becoming wiser in his choices during the races. In Safarirally he also struggled with a few punctures, but took four stage wins in the difficult race. Since Rovanperä was out of the race and Evans was supposed to secure victory, Katsuta became the man to collect the most points possible on Super Sunday and Powerstage for Toyota. It ended with a bit too much speed in a corner and the car rolled over. Katsuta made it to the finish after help from the crowd to get the car back on its wheels, but there were few points. Still, he will be fifth overall in the race, and with a 2nd place in Sweden and several stage wins, he proves that he has the speed. On asphalt like this race, Katsuta has driven well in previous races, and is in a good position to do so again. In addition, he is not driving for factory points as Sébastien Ogier is starting, so the pressure on his shoulders is lower here.

Sébastien Ogier , eight-time world champion, is only driving a few selected races for Toyota this year, and this is number two. The legend Ogier has never driven this race before, but is an expert on asphalt and has plenty of experience. Rally Islas Canarias is a technically demanding asphalt race, and with only one race on Hankook tires, this could also be challenging for Ogier. For a little slip here, the rock face or asphalt edge can ruin the rally in a matter of seconds. But Toyota has such faith in him that he has been selected to drive for factory points instead of Takamoto Katsuta. And it is perhaps not so strange, because Sébastien Ogier has won a total of 22 asphalt rallies in the WRC, and even though he has not driven for a few months, he is capable of winning here. He has also been given a test before this race and did it in warm sunny weather on the Spanish mainland. He himself says that he is going for victory on the holiday island.

Summary

Rally Islas Canarias will be a race where it can be difficult to pick out a candidate who stands out, as "nobody" has driven here before. But these are professional rally drivers who have driven dozens of rallies for the first time, and note-taking will be important here. In addition, experience on asphalt will of course be crucial, as well as form and confidence in the car and tires. Due to the start of this year's season, I can't get away from Elfyn Evans because he has a confidence that none of the others have, and he trusts both the tires and the car. Others who are good on asphalt are of course Sébastien Ogier, Takamoto Katsuta and Thierry Neuville as I have described in the analysis. I don't quite know where I have Kalle Rovanperä, and Adrien Fourmaux will probably have to drive without too much risk. Therefore, these are my tips:

WRC at 09:00: Elfyn Evans Top 3 (2.05)

Alternative bets:
WRC at 09:00: H2H Elfyn Evans - Adrien Fourmaux: Elfyn Evans wins (1.65)
WRC at 09:00: H2H Adrien Fourmaux - Takamoto Katsuta: Takamoto Katsuta wins (2.50)
WRC at 09:00: H2H Sébastien Ogier - Kalle Rovanperä: Sébastien Ogier wins (1.61)
WRC at 09:00: Thierry Neuville best Hyundai driver (2.10)
WRC at 09:00: Elfyn Evans wins (6.50)
WRC at 09:00: Sébastien Ogier wins (4.35)
WRC at 09:00: Elfyn Evans over 1.5 stage wins (2.00)