PSV – Juventus 19-02-2025

The second leg in the Netherlands after a 2-1 win for Juventus in Italy, who will advance to face Arsenal or Inter in the round of 16? We will get the answer tonight, and hopefully we will see a PSV team that wants to come forward and continue scoring goals like they have done earlier in the season. I will explain in more detail why there are goals, and the possibility of corners in tonight's match.

PSV – history is not playing tonight:

PSV have surprised many in this year's Champions League, with several good results, including a 4-0 win over Girona and a 3-2 win over Liverpool at home. However, they have struggled a bit more away from home in this year's Champions League, but still got points against PSG and drove over Red Star Belgrade before PSV received a red card and had a very difficult time in the second half. PSV has been significantly better at home with 3-1-0 and a goal difference of 11-5 (2.75 PSV goals on average), while away has been 1-1-3 with a goal difference of 9-6. PSV plays a lot of corners and has 6.75 corners on average and concedes 3.5 at home in the Champions League, with 10.25 match corners on average.

PSV do not have the best history in the "UEFA Cups", only 3 of the 11 knockout rounds they have been in since 1989/90 have they progressed. The last time they progressed was when they knocked out Arsenal back in 2007. However, PSV are unbeaten at home in their last 12 European matches, which includes the 3 wins in the league earlier this autumn/winter. I would think PSV will go all out and try to attack, because they need to score tonight to be able to progress. It has been two years since PSV last left the field goalless at home.

In the domestic league, PSV have been good, except for the last few weeks where they have lost the league lead to Ajax and are currently 2 points behind with one more game played. In the last 5 games they have 1-3-1 and a goal difference of 10-11. Overall at home they have 9-3-0 and a whopping 40-10 in goal difference, so there is no doubt that this team can score goals (3.33 per game). PSV averages 8.75 corners and concedes 3.25 at home.

PSV have five players out with injuries today, some of whom have been out for a long time. There have been rumours that Olivier Boscagli may be back in the squad, but it is doubtful that he will play tonight. Boscagli has been out since the muscle injury he suffered in the match against Liverpool. I would expect PSV to field a similar team to the one they played with in Turin.

Juventus – Will The Old Lady set a new record tonight?

The Old Lady has not been quite themselves in either the Champions League or Serie A. They have wasted many points by drawing in both tournaments, and in the Champions League Juventus have played 4-3-2 with a goal difference of 11-8. Of which 1-3-0 and goal difference 3-4 are away. Juventus took a recipe-like away win against Leipzig in the second round, and have played 3 drawn away games in a row (1-1 against Lille and 2 x 0-0 against Aston Villa and Club Brugge). Juventus do not produce that many corners, and on the road they average 3.5 corners and concede 3.75 in the Champions League.

Juventus have already played PSV twice at home, beating them both times. If Juventus win tonight they will make history, as no club in history has beaten the same team 3 times in the current competition. Juventus have progressed from 20 knockout rounds of the European Cup or Champions League, where they have won the first of two matches. This is a history that goes back to 1979.

Juventus took a very strong 1-0 win in The Derby d'Italia against Inter on Sunday. It was another tough match for the Italians where they defended very well in the first half and got more involved in the game in the second, but were running a lot behind Inter. Juventus had a good portion of luck in the first half, but that's football sometimes. Otherwise, Juventus has climbed to fourth place in Serie A, and has played 11-13-1 with a 42-21 goal difference overall. But away from home, Juventus is 5-6-1 and a goal difference of 20-11, which gives an average goal difference of 1.66 goals away from home. They have also not kept a clean sheet since November 2024 in Serie A away from home. Juventus produce very few corners away from home in the Champions League too, 3.67 on average, but concede 6.08 away from home (7.25 on average on match corners).

Juventus have 4 unavailable players, all of whom have been out for a long time, and they have 2 players who are doubtful for tonight's match. Douglas Luiz and Dusan Vlahovic are doubtful for the match. Should Vlahovic be out, it would be a big minus for Juventus.

Game suggestions:

There are several exciting possibilities for this match. PSV need to score goals, and as soon as we get a goal in this match I think the match can explode. With PSV needing to score goals, and having to attack, it will most likely generate a lot of corners as well. At the same time, there is probably no one else but Juventus who can park the bus like the Italians.

Other game proposals that were considered:

• PSV Draw No Bet
• Over 9.5 corners

Conclusion:

Will PSV finally succeed in advancing from a knockout round, like they did against Arsenal 16 years ago? I think it could be tough, but I have a gut feeling that PSV can do it. They have beaten good teams at Philips Stadion in the past, and Juventus are not exactly the strongest away team at the moment. I think it will be goal-oriented and exciting until the very end. Both teams had a match at the weekend, where PSV played 2-2 with a late goal, and Juventus had a hard-fought victory against Inter. The difference is that PSV has been given an extra day to recover and does not have to travel from Italy to the Netherlands to play the match, which is positive for PSV.

With the ability and goal average that PSV has to score goals at Philips Stadion, I think there will be goals, and I think PSV will score over 1.5 goals against Juventus tonight. Therefore, today's bet is PSV to score over 1.5 goals at odds of 2.09, a bet that I think is good value.

Champions League at 21:00: PSV - Juventus: PSV over 1.5 goals (2.09)