PSG – Liverpool 05-03-2025

Tonight, perhaps Europe's two most in-form teams will meet in the first leg of the round of 16. Both teams are superb league leaders in both France and England, and at the time of writing lead the series with 13 points. The stage is set for PSG – Liverpool in perhaps the most exciting match of the round. I'll tell you why this will be a fast-paced match with lots of attacks, corners and hopefully lots of goals. These are two teams that have only met each other four times: a double clash in 1997 in the "Cup Winners' Cup" (where PSG won 3-0 at home and lost 0-2 away) and in the group stage of the Champions League in 2018 (where PSG won 2-1 at home and lost 3-2 away).

PSG - Will it finally succeed in the Champions League?

After a troubled start to the season and the Champions League with some surprising results, things really turned around for PSG against Manchester City in the regular season, and they "struggled" to advance to the knockout rounds. In the previous knockout round against Brest, they won 10-0 on aggregate, 0-3 away and a whopping 7-0 at home. PSG could have chosen to "calm down" at half-time when they were leading 5-0 on aggregate, but they did the opposite and drove on and won the second half just as well 5-0 as well. PSG has never won the Champions League, and that is their big goal. The first obstacle is Liverpool, and perhaps the most difficult opponent. As Enrique said at the press conference, this could have been a Champions League final!

PSG have really picked up steam in recent months, and are on an impressive 22 matches (19 wins and 3 draws) without a loss across all leagues and cups, and have a goal difference of 65-19. This amounts to 3.81 goals per match in total and a goal average of 2.95. The previous loss (1-0) was away to Bayern Munich in the Champions League back in November 2024. In their 5 home matches in the Champions League this year, they have been the dominant team. They have a lot of possession and press very high, with an average of an impressive 65% possession, which results in many shots and corners (8 on average per match in both statistics).

PSG manager Luis Enrique has done a lot of good with PSG, and I think PSG have improved significantly since they got rid of huge world stars and their egos. Enrique says they have big plans to attack and use that to their advantage, and that PSG's mentality will not be to lie down and protect themselves and be defensive. He knows Liverpool very well and is aware of their good form and results in the domestic league and in the Champions League, but he mentioned that they will not do much differently than they did against Lille (4-1 win last weekend) where they put Lille under extreme pressure, so that they were unable to play the ball out from behind, but had to hit further to get ahead.

PSG have a full squad, and no injuries to report. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Willian Pacho were rested against Lille at the weekend, and are likely to be ready for tonight's match against Liverpool. At the same time, PSG must be careful with cards. There are several players who must serve a suspension for yellow cards. Ibrahima Konate, Andy Robertson, Harvey Elliott, Ousmane Dembele and Fabian Ruiz all have 2 yellow cards, and must sit out a match if they receive another card. Nuno Mendes and Alexis Mac Allister both have 3 cards, and if they receive 2 more cards, they will receive a one-match suspension. The number of cards is reset after the quarter-finals, so there are four more matches in which these players cannot/should not receive cards.

Liverpool – Will the Champions League form continue?:

Liverpool need no introduction this season. The team that leads the Premier League by a wide margin, is in the final of the Carabao Cup and has been extremely strong in the Champions League, surfing through with 7 wins and 1 loss with a goal difference of 17-5 which resulted in first place in the regular season. Liverpool's only defeat in the regular season came away to PSV, where they did not field their strongest team, as they were already assured of advancement to the round of 16.

Arne Slot's men had a break this weekend, after Liverpool were knocked out of the FA Cup by Plymouth in the last round, and it was the only match in which Liverpool have not scored more than 1.5 goals in the last 12 matches. This means a slight advantage to Liverpool, as they have had more rest and recovery, and they have had every reason to get the best possible recharge for the match.

Liverpool have had a good Champions League season so far, and have been very good at Anfield. Away from home they have won 3 out of 4 and lost 1, with a goal difference of 4-7. Liverpool have generally had good control over French opposition with 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses. In addition, they have good statistics away from home in the Champions League; in their last 22 away matches they have won 16 games, played 1 draw and lost 5. This year Liverpool have usually run the games well away from home, with a ball possession of 55%, and 8 shots on average, and have shown that attack is often the best defense. Liverpool actually produce more corners away from home than at home in this year's Champions League, with an average of 5.5 away against 4.25 at home.

During the press conference, Arne Slot was asked if they feared PSG, and the Dutchman quickly replied: "We fear no one, but I am impressed by the quality, and they are on an upward curve, a bit like ours at the moment."

Arne Slot has almost a full squad to choose from, but has some defensive players out with injuries, who are unavailable. The players that Liverpool will have to do without due to injury are Joe Gomez, Conor Bradley and Tyler Morton. In addition, they have Amara Nallo, who was sent off after 8 minutes into his debut match against PSV!

Game suggestions:

According to the bookmakers, PSG are a slight favorite with odds of 2.45 against 2.80 for Liverpool, and they are clearly expecting goals as over 2.5 goals "only" gives 1.53. Given the teams' goal averages, over 1.5 goals for both teams could be an exciting bet; for PSG it gives 1.90 and for Liverpool it gives 2.05.

PSG at home have an average of 11 corners, and Liverpool have 10.5 corners away. Over 9.5 corners at 1.72 can be considered. Both teams to score only gives 1.48, but if you add both teams to score + over 2.5 goals, you get 1.72, which is a good bet.

 

Conclusion:

If you were to turn back the clock to 2025, I would say Liverpool would have won both of these games, but the way PSG have come back is absolutely incredible. They play incredibly great attacking football, and have "suddenly" gained that super streak in attack. It will probably be an even match, where PSG will most likely press Liverpool high, and thus the chance of some ball loss is high, which will result in many attacks and counterattacks that can in turn create corners.

Both teams have only gone goalless 3 times each this season, so I'm pretty sure there will be goals, and at least one for each team. Because PSG should win at home to have an "easier" game at Anfield, I would think we will get over 2.5 goals as well, but I don't dare to bet on pure marking, because that goal could come either way in the form of an attack from PSG or a counterattack from Liverpool.

Based on the scoring form the teams are in, as well as PSG's motivation to get 3 points, we choose the following games tonight:

Champions League at 21:00: PSG - Liverpool: Both teams score + Over 2.5 goals (1.72)