Preston – Burnley 01-03-25

Let's turn the clock back to December 2024. Burnley's eminent last hope, James Trafford, is sitting with his mobile in his hand. The 22-year-old was sold from Manchester City to Burnley in the summer of 2023, and now finds himself in great form, as is his club. Promotion is within reach. Trafford, NFL fan that he is, sends a message to JJ Watt, the legendary figure from American football. Watt has hung up his boots, and is now a part-owner of Burnley. The good boy, James Trafford, asks Watt via message if he would be interested in a comeback, and then for Trafford's favorite club, Cincinnati Bengals. Watt is playing along, and replies back that if Trafford keeps a clean sheet for the rest of the season, he has a deal. Watt lies back on the sofa and takes another handful from the bag of crisps.

When the match against Preston kicks off on Saturday, it will be March and Trafford has not conceded a single goal in 13 games. Not a single goal since the bet with Watt was made. Rumours from the States suggest that Watt is now in the gym at all hours, as a sensational comeback is suddenly not so unlikely anymore. After Burnley's rock-solid 4-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday last weekend, Watt took to social media to proclaim that he was now looking for a house in the Ohio area, where the Cincinnati Bengals are based..

James Trafford aside, this will be an interesting match in this year's FA Cup. Preston have had a disappointing season so far, and are 15th in the league, while Burnley are fighting for promotion to the Premier League. Will the gap in the league also be felt in the cup? It remains to be seen, but we can almost guarantee that JJ Watt will be benched, although possibly without the bag of chips in his lap this time.

Preston – The Cup, a welcome break

For Preston, this is a decent break from the daily grind. The league is largely over, as there are both many teams and points up to sixth place, which gives qualification for the Premier League. The problem for the home team has been that the road to goals seems both long and winding. 19 league goals in 17 home games is too bad. Six of these 17 have been won, and the lack of a home fort is significant.

Exactly two weeks ago, Preston and Burnley met in a league match at Deepdale in Preston. The almost 24 thousand people in attendance saw a home team that produced five chances, with an xG of 0.27. Of course, it is not enough if the outcome is to be three points, and a hope of climbing the table is to be real. Of course, some of the credit should go to the away team, because here it is minimally allowed.

The home team will probably have to take more chances if they are to advance in the cup. Burnley will tighten their belts, and it will suddenly be another frustrating match at home if they don't get a puncture in the boil early. No new injuries to report for Preston against this one, but none of the last three have been won. Two goals have been scored in the three mentioned.

Burnley–Fort Knox

If Burnley can be compared to Fort Knox this season, it is James Trafford who holds the key. We mentioned it at the beginning, 13 straight without a goal for the last hurrah, and nine straight without a goal against Burnley. These are somewhat sensational numbers we are witnessing, the goal difference of the burgundy is 43-9 after 34 rounds played. Completely unheard of in a tough and tight league like the Championship after all.

Burnley are thus fighting at the top of the table, and promotion, both directly and through qualification, is the goal now. The question will therefore be, will this go beyond the focus of this cup match? We don't think so, for the reason that Burnley may have a real opportunity to go some way towards Wembley this year. Several of the big guns are already out, and I don't think there are many who are looking forward to trying to break down this defense. Money is of course also a motivation. It is difficult to achieve anything in football without money, and a long march in this year's FA Cup can be both profitable and a good showcase. If there is promotion, you obviously want to attract some reinforcements, although not in the goalkeeper position. The goalkeeper will probably be tough to keep, but again, money is king, and a sale here could pave the way for several new faces.

The last two games between Preston and Burnley have ended 0-0. It wouldn't be a shock if this is the outcome again. Burnley break down opponents by being patient, and if Preston is frustrated from the kick-off, the away team will probably find a way to advance in the end, at least that's the gut feeling. Of the last nine games, they are 5-4-0. No goals against, and a very low xG allowed. There is more to say about an extension of the remarkable streak, than for it to end now. No injuries to mention.

Conclusion – A boring affair?

Well, of course it can be. 0-0 matches are not the most exciting for the average TV viewer. Considering the two goalless matches between the two teams recently, expectations for goals are low. We thus turn into terrain for various under bets, or a pure selection. What is most likely, that Burnley wins in regular time, or that Trafford closes shop again? We suddenly believe that both of these outcomes can coincide, but feel a bit more confident that Preston will again have to accept falling short. However, we add two alternatives to the selected game, where we both tip for a Burnley victory, and a draw at half-time. A draw at half-time is often when Burnley is involved, and we do not think it will be a more open match than normal now that a ticket to the next round of the venerable FA Cup is at stake.

England at 1.15pm: Preston - Burnley: Burnley keep a clean sheet (2.15)

Alternative game

England at 13:15: Preston – Burnley: Away win (2.20)

England at 13:15: Preston – Burnley: Draw at half-time (1.90)