Portugal - Spain 08-06-2025

Who will lift the Nations League trophy in Munich?

The stage is set for what could be the most open Nations League final in history as Portugal and Spain clash in Munich. Both teams have impressed in the tournament, and both are coming off semi-final experiences that have left their mark on their squads – in their own way. Now it’s all about rising to the occasion, keeping a cool head and preserving the small margins that decide the biggest trophies.

Portugal – Tactical flexibility and solid profiles

Under Roberto Martínez, Portugal has developed into a team that can really play on several strings. The classic defensive stability is still at the bottom, but in recent years the team has built a much broader offensive register and a tactical flexibility that has carried them all the way to the final. The clearest mark of quality came in the semi-final against Germany, where Portugal turned the game around after half-time and won 2–1 after goals from Conceição and Ronaldo. Here they were occasionally pressured, but eventually managed to control both tempo and space, and not least Diogo Costa once again delivered several crucial saves.
The goalkeeper has been among the very best of the tournament. In defense, Ruben Dias and Gonçalo Inácio have formed a solid and playing stopper pair, and they have stood up to both the Netherlands and Germany. The full-backs contribute both security and width, are able to hit good crosses and make important runs in the back space – which gives Portugal an extra attacking weapon.

In midfield, the trio of Bernardo Silva, Rúben Neves and Bruno Fernandes have found increasingly better synergy. Fernandes has controlled the rhythm and has come up with shots from deep, while Silva gives the team drive and creativity. Neves closes off space in front of the defense and contributes to the necessary balance. On the wings, Pedro Neto provides speed and depth, while Trincão often operates between the lines and pulls into the box. Cristiano Ronaldo is starting to show his age, but is still a feared weapon on set pieces and against tired defenders.

It is still a bit uncertain who will start in attack for Portugal, as they have several big names who sat on the bench throughout the match against Germany.

Portugal have been impressive throughout the tournament, with several of their key goals coming from quick transitions or well-executed set pieces. Their biggest weakness has been in the transition phase: Against Germany, they initially struggled to cover the spaces behind the full-backs and were occasionally exposed to German breakthroughs.

Spain – Offensive fireworks, but vulnerable at the back

Spain have continued to develop their attacking style since their Euro 2024 triumph. Under Luis de la Fuente, the team has retained possession but become far more direct and risk-taking. Nowhere was this more evident than in the 5-4 triumph over France in the semi-final – a match in which Spain never trailed, but in which their comfortable lead shrank.

Here it was the younger players who shone the brightest. Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams dominated their respective wings, both with two goals, while Pedri continued his solid spring with another important goal. Mikel Oyarzabal registered two assists, he has been a confident frontman with strong relationships with Williams and Yamal.

Pedri is back and has been key to providing balance and rhythm in midfield. Without Rodri (injured), the responsibility has fallen more to Mikel Merino and Fabián Ruiz, and both have delivered, but the defensive anchor that Rodri represents has been missing. Martin Zubimendi had a decent performance against France, but I think he didn't get involved enough in the game, he had the fewest touches of the ball of anyone who played for 90 minutes. This has given opponents – like France – the opportunity to create big chances and threaten the back space behind Pedro Porro and Cucurella.

The stopper duo Le Normand and Huijsen had slightly mixed performances: strong in the duel game, but vulnerable to quick turns and direct runs. Unai Simón has been good on the line and with the ball at his feet, but uncertain on high crosses and in field work. This could be a key against the Portuguese set-piece strength.

Offensively, Spain has been Europe's most productive team over the past year. With Williams, Yamal, Olmo, Morata – and Oyarzabal as options – they can attack with pace, creativity and multiple players in the box.

For more information about Spain, please read my analysis of the Spain – France match played on Thursday. The analysis can be found here .

History and past meetings

The matches between Portugal and Spain – the “Iberian derby” – are always close and full of nerves. The last five meetings have mostly been goalless: three under 1.5 goals, four draws, only one match with more than three goals. Spain won 1–0 last time (Nations League 2022), when Morata scored in the dying moments of the match. But this year’s semi-finals and form curves suggest that the final could be more open than before, especially since both have conceded a lot and have attacking players in great form.

Expected match picture and key duels

With two teams in attacking form but with weaknesses at the back, an intense and at times open match is expected. Spain will likely dominate possession, but Portugal have thrived on counter-attacking and quick attacks down the wings. Fernandes and Pedri will be important in the middle – not only for pace and passing, but also to dampen and regain control.

Portugal will try to threaten behind the Spanish full-backs, while Spain like to combine wing and midfield to get through. Both goalkeepers are in top form and could be decisive.

This will be anything but a classic locked final. Both teams have shown strength going forward, but also weakness going back. Spain has a slight favorite stamp due to offensive width and form, but Portugal has the experience, set-piece strength and the X-factors to tilt the match. On neutral ground, with historical rivalry and offensive guns on both teams, everything is set for goals and drama. We therefore land on this game;

Nations League final at 21:00: Portugal – Spain: BTTS & over 2.5 goals (1.96)

Alternative bets:
Nations League final at 21:00: Portugal – Spain: Spain to win (1.93)

Nations League final at 21:00: Portugal – Spain: Spain over 1.5 goals in the first half (4.45)