Pisa–Atalanta

The match between Pisa and Atalanta is also a meeting between two very different football cultures and geographical expressions. Pisa, beautifully situated in Tuscany with its iconic tower, represents a more traditional and sober footballing existence, while Atalanta from Bergamo in Lombardy has in recent years become a symbol of modern, intense and offensive Italian football.

Historically, these are two clubs with very different starting points: Pisa has shuttled between the divisions, while Atalanta has established itself as a permanent top team in Serie A. This year's season in Serie A has, as usual, been characterized by small margins, high tactical quality and a clear distinction between top and bottom - and that is precisely where we find these two teams, at opposite ends of the table.

Pisa – Tough return to the top level

Pisa's comeback in Serie A has been far tougher than many had hoped. After 20 rounds of the league, they have only one win, and are clearly last in the table. The biggest challenge has been offensively: only 15 goals in 20 matches speaks volumes about how difficult it is for them to create and convert chances. At the same time, it is worth noting that, even though the points have not been forthcoming, they have actually been relatively solid at home. They have only conceded 10 goals in 10 matches – which is not bad at all for a team at the bottom.

The match picture is still that Pisa is often pressed low: they give away 5.15 corners on average per match and allow a whopping 15.30 shots against, only surpassed by Cremonese in a negative sense. This is evidence of a team that defends a lot, and is often forced to clear in their own box – which naturally also gives many corners to the opponent.

Atalanta – Back on track?

Atalanta have had a more uneven season than we are used to, and are currently outside the places that will provide European Cup games next season. Raffaele Palladino has been given the demanding task of making the home fans forget Gian Piero Gasperini, and time is running out. Nevertheless, there are clear signs of improvement: three straight wins and four wins in the last five games indicate that the team is finding its rhythm. Odilon Kossounou is likely to return from the African Championship, while Ademola Lookman is unlikely to make it home in time, regardless of the outcome of the semi-final against Morocco.

Offensively, Atalanta still delivers good numbers: 25 goals in 20 matches, a whopping 14.45 shots per match (beaten only by Inter and Juventus) and an average of 5.80 corners per match. With players like Nikola Krstovic, Kamaldeen Sulemana and Charles De Ketelaere available, Palladino has several good offensive tools even without Lookman – and these three could easily be the ones to decide the game in our favor.

Conclusion – Bet against one goal

Everything is set for a match where Atalanta controls most of the game, while Pisa defends low and compactly. With Pisa's low average for shots for, and high numbers against, as well as Atalanta's documented ability to produce both shots and corners, it is reasonable to expect a clear advantage in the field play for the away team. When Pisa is also often pressed back at home, the likelihood of Atalanta accumulating corners increases further in the match. Just look here;

In this year's 10 home games, Pisa has lost the corner kick in 7 of the games. And in 6 of these 7 they have lost by a good margin. One thing is that teams like Verona, Fiorentina and Cremonese came here and got the most corners, but Verona and Fiorentina could also have been played with a -1.5 handicap. And if we look at teams that Atalanta can compare themselves to, the history looks like this;

• Pisa – Rome 1-7
• Pisa – Inter 4-6
• Pisa – Juventus 2-8
• Pisa – Como 1-5

So when the best teams come to visit, the corner game is won by a fair margin by the away team. Only because Pisa is the weakest team in the league? Or because they are actually quite solid at the back at home at Arena Garibaldi? Anyway; we know what offensive pressure the away team will bring, and not least what is at stake, so we have to try the following play;

Italy: Pisa - Atalanta: Atalanta most corners -1.5 (1.70)

Should corners not be your cup of tea, then you can look towards a goal bet. Or a marking bet. Now we know that Pisa are quite tight at home, so 1.79 on over 1.5 goals to Atalanta may not be paid sufficiently. Therefore, we see much better value in the following bets;

Italy: Pisa - Atalanta: Atalanta to win -1 Asian handicap (2.09)