Nottingham v Chelsea 25/05/25

There is one poor point separating Nottingham and Chelsea as we have now reached the final round of the league. One point between floodlights and Champions League atmosphere versus the slightly more peripheral European tournaments. Nottingham's adventure lasted almost all the way to the finish. It simply hurts a little to think about the team's last few league rounds, and how it has all literally slipped out of the hands of the guys from Sherwood Forest. They have held on to both second and third place throughout much of the season, before it stopped abruptly at the beginning of April. With a good dose of luck they still manage to do it, but not without help. Chelsea have their own destiny in their own hands. 66 points, equal with Newcastle and Aston Villa, but with a significantly better goal difference than the latter, means that with a win here the Champions League is in the bag. A draw could be fateful. What a match this could potentially be!

 

Nottingham – It lasted almost all the way to the checkout!

 

It is a bit incredible to witness what this old great team has achieved this season. They took hold of the season early, and showed that they were not around the relegation zone as they had intended to be. The top half then became the top four, and for a period there they were the closest contenders for the really big thing. The matches were close, the opponents eventually figured out their tactics a bit, and some points were left behind on the road. In round 28 they beat Manchester City, in round 29 Ipswich, and in 30 Manchester United were defeated. Nine points out of a possible nine, and not against just anyone. Nottingham aimed for Europe.

 

But then came the downturn. After the win against United, Nottingham have two wins in their last seven. Three games have been lost, and two have ended in a draw. Especially 0-2 at home against Brentford was hard to swallow, and then it peaked with 2-2 at home against Leicester in round 36, where they messed up the victory in the end. These points mean that the hard-fought reds are now on the defensive, and must both beat Chelsea on Sunday, while also needing help from other teams. It almost worked.

 

Because this team has surprised many during the season. Evigunge Wood at the top has scored goals, Elanga has proven to be a very capable Premier League player in the middle, and Gibbs-White has been one of the best players throughout the season. Interspersed with solid full-backs, good contributors in the middle, and a really good goalkeeper in Sels, this team has bitten off from the start. It will be very interesting to see if they can turn the tide again in the last round. We think it will be tough, as after all they are up against a team with far better conditions to succeed at this level. The match will be close and even, and both teams are faced with the interesting problem that the match must be won. A draw usually leads both Nottingham and Chelsea out of the Champions League places.

 

Chelsea – A crucial opportunity to gain a foothold

 

Because now it's Chelsea! With this crew, and with the sums spent on players, you HAVE to perform at some point. If you want to maintain this squad, and if you want to keep everyone happy, you have to fight for the big titles, and you have to play Champions League football. You're close now, but everything can still go wrong. We've mentioned it above, no one can lose, and a draw is probably not enough either. A lovely starting point for a football match, and certainly something that helps to set the stage for the match.

 

Chelsea are in fine form. There is a final in Europe's third tier next week, and it will be decided on Sunday whether there will be first-class continental football in the autumn. The Royal Blues have had a nice flow in the league lately, if we ignore the defeat against Newcastle. A loss that could have a direct impact on who ends up in the top five. The reverse fixture in the autumn between Chelsea and Nottingham ended 1-1, after it was goalless at half-time. We believe that Sunday's battle could quickly turn out to be something similar. Chelsea has the greatest quality in its squad, but, it cannot be rushed. The team that would end up under here could quickly run out of time. For Chelsea, it would be fatal to have to tear down the last hurdle.

 

The away team will have to do without first choice, Jackson. The striker was sent off against Newcastle, and the striker spot is therefore a never-so-small challenge. Fortunately, Maresca will have Nkunku back from injury for the match against Nottingham, but it remains to be seen whether he will be thrown directly into the mix. George got the nod against Manchester United last time out, without impressing significantly. There is a greater chance that it will be the trio behind the striker who will have to do it. Palmer, Neto and Madueke have the qualities needed, and this is probably where Nottingham will have to be extra careful. Caicedo and Fernandez line up in central midfield. It is clear that with such names on the payroll, you have to play Champions League football.

 

Conclusion – Tight and nervous

 

Who really dares to go for it here? If you are going to keep up with Manchester City, Newcastle and Aston Villa, who we all think will take three points on Sunday, the match must be won. Nottingham also needs help. Chelsea can take care of the beef themselves. This will be a tactical duel, and it is reasonable to think that it will be goalless. Because, if you end up behind here first, while the clock is ticking, then frustration can completely take over. Both teams obviously want to end up among the top five, so it may be a consolation prize if there are games in Europe at a lower level in the autumn.

 

We believe that since there is so much at stake, we will get a close game. There will be few corners, and there will be a lot of fighting in the middle. What could turn the analysis upside down is if one of the teams were to score early. Goals often come by pure chance, and we are not guarded against a scenario other than what we find most likely. However, we dare to go further with our train of thought, and land on a low-scoring match, where Chelsea are the favorites. Even if the away team has to accept having it stamped on us, we do not see any particularly dominant match picture. It will be locked, and Nottingham will definitely play what they do best, short distances, and quick passes in the back. Don't get me wrong, the home team can certainly get away with this on a good day.

 

All in all, we ultimately recommend two different bets. Our main bet will be the claim that Nottingham will not win either half. We believe the teams will follow each other, and that if anyone sticks their head the necessary inches ahead it will be Chelsea. The alternative bet will be an underbet. If we get the match picture we outline, there will be little rush of goals this Sunday. But, there will be a match, and nerves will definitely be thick on the outside of the shirts. In terms of money, it hardly gets more important than this.

 

England at 17:00: Nottingham – Chelsea: Nottingham to win at least one half: No (1.78)

 

Alternative game

England at 17:00: Nottingham – Chelsea: Under 2.5 goals (2.15)