Analysis of:

Mora IK – Vesterås IK 12-02-2025

Ragnar Sundberg

Written by: Ragnar Sundberg

Analysis Information
Tournament
Hockey Allsvenskan
Match start
12/03/2025 19:00
Units
4 / 10
Odds

1.91

We are going to Hockeyallsvenskan, and game 2 of 3 in the qualifiers for the playoffs between Mora IK and Vesterås IK.

This time we are going to Smidjegrav Arena and Mora IK's home ground. They won the first game after the transfer, and with a win here will be ready for the playoffs. We think that the home field advantage could quickly be decisive in this game. But let's take a look as usual.

Mora IK – Should be the best team.

Mora, who finished 7th in the regular season, is the highest-ranked team of the 4 teams playing this round. This is the battle to get into the playoffs for the chance to advance. Those ranked 7-10 play for this.

There, the team that finished 7th (Mora) will meet the team that finished 10th (Vesterås). There was actually as much as 24 points between the teams after 52 games in the regular season. Mora had a goal difference of 152-146. There is a clear difference in the table where 8th place (Oskarshamn) ended up and below. While the teams above this position have a positive goal difference, the teams below this have a very clear negative goal difference.

The victory came late in the first match against today's opponent. In fact, it wasn't until the last minute of the game that the score was tied at 1-1 when Mora took out the goalkeeper. After this, they decided in the second extra period. I think that tasted good, in a match that was postponed by 1 hour due to ice problems, this was probably a late night for most people. Coach Daniel Hermansson also stated after the match that this was important for morale. They could now go home to win, with the intention of deciding in front of a packed hall. He also admitted that the team had nerves in this match, but that he saw a team that played better throughout the match. Now he believes that most of the nerves should be gone before the next match. We believe him, and we see that the home team is now the favorite. Especially considering the psychological aspect of this victory, and the way it came.

Vesterås IK – Constantly showing weaknesses.

Vesterås, who did not qualify for this round until overtime in the last round, once again shows weaknesses. In the last league match, the team led 5-2 at home, before letting their opponent into the match again to 5-5. Then it was with the smallest possible margin that the team took this round to decide in overtime. Unnecessarily exciting, in a match that should have been secured. The same can be said about the first match against today's opponent, which they led 1-0, until there were 34 seconds left in the match. A match that they ultimately lost after overtime. It seems weak from the team.

We also think they will have a tough time in this match. Here they meet a team that on paper should be better, and even on the away field. If you look at the regular season, the team had a weak goal difference of 121-164. Coach Eric Karlsson also admits that the team does not have enough to bring forward on the courts, and that this could be the big challenge away here. He nevertheless emphasizes that the team wants to sell itself dearly, and will fight like lions. We do not doubt that. But whether it is enough, we have greater doubts.

Conclusion – Mora IK does not want any more matches.

We believe that Mora strongly wants to decide this one. They want to avoid the extra burden of playing an extra game at all costs, considering the rest of the playoffs. That goes without saying that they have been given an extra chance here now. Mora is already guaranteed another game if they were to lose this one, so the pressure is clearly on Vesterås. We have seen that lately, that Vesterås is not coping well.

Internally between the teams, there is also an advantage for the home team. Mora has won both home games with 5-3 and 3-0. While they won 1 away with 0-3 and lost one after extra time with 3-2. There is a lot that speaks for a home win here, and at such good odds we have to try a bet in favor of the home team.

Hockey at 19:00: Mora IK - Vesterås IK: Mora wins (1.91)

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