MoDo Hockey – Hv71 14-03-2025

Then we have arrived at some of the most exciting things happening in hockey Sweden during the year. This is the playoff no one wants to play, but everyone wants to win. Maybe the prize here is greater than actually winning the whole thing.

The relegation play-off between the clubs Modo Hockey and Hv71 has been something that most people have imagined would happen. The two worst teams in the SHL this season will meet in a play-off for life. The play-off will take place over a period of 7 games, where the team that finished 13th (MoDo) will have home field advantage from the start. Hagglunds Arena in Ørnskoldsvik, Sweden, is guaranteed to be filled to the brim.

The club management in Modo is praying on their knees to fill the arena and create the same atmosphere as back on April 30, 2023 when the team was allowed to take the trip up. If you create this electric atmosphere, Hv71 will feel the pressure.

Modo Hockey – Bad, but not the worst?

Modo, as their opponent, has fought a long battle not to be the worst in the SHL this season. And they didn't. The team would still have certainly wanted to move up a place, so they could have avoided this relegation battle. They have put themselves in a difficult situation by being second to last in the division.

These two teams are playing as they said to not be relegated in a best of 7 series. Modo has, due to their position, the advantage of starting with 2 home games. They must use it. It will be crucial to get a good start to reduce the pressure. We think the home team will be the best in this one, as they have shown a little lately. They have 3 wins and 3 losses in the last 6, with wins against strong teams like Timrå, Luleå and Malmø. But in the same period they lost to today's opponent. We think the team has realized for a while that they will play this series, and in the last game they saved their money when they lost 6-1 to Skellefteå.

The team was number 11 last year. So they didn't have to go out in this relegation duel. So it will be something new for them. But the coach and the team seem positive. In total, the team ended up with 63 points in 52 games, and a goal difference of 135-170. This means that the team scores okay goals, but concedes far too many. At home, things have looked a little better, and the team seems safer on their own ice than on foreign ice. 36 points in 26 home games, and 76-82 in goal difference at home. We see it as an advantage Modo that the team seems to have better control of the games on home ice.

Hv71 – As expected.

Hv71, which was part of our first analysis of the year this season, we predicted to be at the very bottom of the table when we arrived at this point. Here we must say that we were right, but at the same time no surprise.

Hv71 has been one of the weakest teams in this division for a while. The team was relegated last time they were at the bottom of the table in the 20/21 season. Before they came back up the following year. Their first year back gave them a safe position in 11th place. Before the following year they ended up in the bottom two (23/24). Then they avoided relegation, by sending Oskarshamn down. Finances and other challenges in the organization have meant that they did not get away from this position again this year, and it was a predicted result in the end. You had to trust young players, and several of them took steps.

They haven't done that. So then you stand here as the weakest team. They ended up with a total of 57 points in 52 games, with a goal difference of 127-164. Which means that the team scores a little less, but concedes far too much. Away from home, things have been even worse, where the team only has 26 points in 26 games, and a negative goal difference of 67-88.

The only thing that speaks for them now is that they have experience in these games. But they have also felt the relegation, and will probably feel that pressure this year as well. There is a huge difference financially between being in the SHL versus Hockeyallsvenskan. So it could easily be a small crisis for the club to be relegated. You get support the first year you are relegated, but much less from year 2. It is not the case that teams that are relegated from this level automatically take the step back up. The needle's eye to get up is narrow. We still feel that this is the team that belongs in the division below.

Conclusion – The team that is last, stays last.

We feel pretty confident that the team that will be eliminated from these two is Hv71. But for that to happen, it is important that Modo tries to use their home field advantage. Otherwise, the psychology of this series could quickly be turned upside down.

Modo seems to be offensive, and have faith that the team will save the place. They themselves believe that they are too good to be relegated, and we believe the same. Internally, the statistics have not been on Modo's side, and Hv71 has won 3 out of 4 games so far this year. But we think we have seen development in Modo, and trust the gut feeling here. Also, MoDo are good at home, and Hv71 are bad away. We try a good odds.

Hockey at 19:00: MoDo Hockey – Hv71: Modo wins (2.25)