Melbourne Victory – Macarthur Fc

There is something special about the A-League. It doesn't reach the pace and precision we find in Europe, but it carries a different kind of beauty. An honest, slightly messy and imperfect football, driven by unpredictability and chaos. And in the middle of this landscape we find a match that smells of both goals and drama when Melbourne Victory takes on Macarthur FC.

Melbourne Victory – Version 2.0

The home team has really got things going. What looked sluggish and unimaginative earlier in the season has been transformed into something far more exuberant – and much of the credit can be attributed to one man; Juan Mata. Four goals and ten assists in 20 games is impressive in itself, but it is the way he does it that really sets the tone. He is involved in everything. Adjusting the tempo. Dictating. Opening up space. Serving. Now that the top-6 looks assured, there is no reason not to set your sights on the top-2.

The special thing about this year's Victory edition is that the goals come more from midfield than from the forward position. Nduka and Vergos know where the goal is, but it is the creativity and goal-scoring flair of Grimaldi, Jelacic, Clarismarino, Genreau – and not least Mata – that drives this team forward. It is mobility, combination play and willingness to shoot in the second wave that create problems.

And it's not just our selective memory that's playing tricks on us. And that's painting the picture beautifully. Because the numbers are crystal clear; Melbourne Victory is one of the more offensive teams in the league. In fact, they're the team that finishes the most, with 17.10 shots per game, and they're also the team that produces the most corners in the A-League, with 6.25 per game.

Yet it's not all joy and glee. Defensively, there are cracks. In The Big Blue, against Sydney FC, they squandered a comfortable 2–0 lead within a few minutes of the break. 2–2 away from home is a workable result in isolation, but the way it happened will sting. Concentration slipped. Structures disappeared. It's moments like these that separate a top team from a near-top team.

Macarthur Fc - empty tank

For the visitors, the situation is much darker. 0-2-3 in the last five in the series speaks volumes, and as if that wasn't enough, they were recently knocked out of the AFC Champions League 2 against Bangkok United. The squad is simply not broad enough to handle two fronts, and now they are paying the price.

The top 6 is slipping through their fingers, and it is urgent to find something resembling stability again. The fact that Uskok has to serve the red card against the Central Coast Mariners weakens them significantly. Robinson also got a red card last time, but the loss is less. The youngster had indeed played his way into the team, but in my eyes Filip Kurto is a safer last resort.

It's also a question of balance and recruitment. Several mainstays are starting to show their age. Caceres, Brattan and newly acquired Duke are all well over 30. When the game schedule gets closer, it's noticeable. And why bring in another big, stationary forward when they already have the league's tallest forward in Sawyer?

It's too predictable. Too straight forward. Caceres is a brilliant footballer, but it's unreasonable to expect him to carry everything alone. And without Uskok in central defence, this could easily be an afternoon where Mata can frolic.

We believe in action

This smells like a home team. Melbourne Victory has rhythm, confidence and a top-notch playmaker. Macarthur looks tired, predictable and vulnerable – especially defensively without Uskok. Although Victory has shown signs of weakness at the back, they now face a team that lacks flow and struggles to create enough pressure over time.

With the offensive power that lives in Victory's midfield, and with Mata as the conductor, they should be good chances for both shots, corners and goals from the home team. Especially considering that the bookmakers have dumped the odds on over 2.5 goals. But the game cannot go over 2.5 goals unless one of the teams scores over 1.5 goals, so we choose another variant, at far better odds;

Australia at 09:00: Melbourne Victory - Macarthur Fc: Over 1.5 goals to Melbourne Victory (1.65)

Alternative games:

Australia at 09:00: Melbourne Victory - Macarthur Fc: Melbourne Victory over 5.5 corners (1.72)

Australia at 09:00: Melbourne Victory – Macarthur Fc: Melbourne Victory over 14.5 shots (tba)