Melbourne City - Perth Glory 15-02-2025

The first pair out this Saturday are the light blues from Melbourne against the team from the west coast, and there are many indications that Perth Glory may have made the trip in vain. Because last year they went home with a 0-8 in their suitcase, and there are things to indicate that this year's match could also be a complete overrun.

Our analysis of the teams

Melbourne City have been extremely injury-hit this year, and while the list is still long, there are several key players who are now starting to look fit enough to contribute from the start. But things are also happening in Perth's squad. The January window was used well, and it will be exciting to see if they can find room for all the new faces. We take a look at the respective teams.

Melbourne City (home ground)

We've talked a lot about all the failures at City. And while they looked solid for a long time, despite this, they have now lost three games in a row. But even though they are in a boring 7th place, they are only 1 point behind Macarthur Fc, who hold the last play-off spot. And it's time to do it.

Because with Tilio, Caputo and Leckie back, we expected them to score goals against Adelaide. They didn't. And it was a bit surprising to see Tilio on the bench. But Vidmar can't continue with that, if the hope of a Grand Final is to live. Leckie was back from the start last time, and will probably continue there, even if he was a little rusty. But with Tilio in the middle, City's attacking play will flow even better
than it has done so far.

But of course, we should have had Nabbout, Cohen and Kuen with us, but luckily Max Caputo is also healthy, and he will probably start right up front here too. And for having been out with a broken foot, I think he looked surprisingly healthy last time. The youngster has a huge physique, and he can quickly cause trouble for the backs at Perth.

Perth Glory (away)

In many ways, Perth Glory appear as they have in recent years. The results are poor, and they create an incredible amount of problems for themselves. And most recently, Olli Sail showed why Wellington Phoenix sold him, and why he has struggled to establish himself at Perth. That mistake, where he lets the ball through his legs, will haunt him for a long time, and we may see a goalkeeper change here. Although it does not necessarily mean an upgrade.

But unlike last year, Perth are not scoring as many goals. This is a bit surprising, but it could be because Taggart is the man who has previously been behind everything, and now that he is older and his teammates are weaker, fewer chances are being created.

Lachlan Wales came in in January and will probably be the player who will create these chances. He has a long career behind him in the A-League, and we know he can. But the question is whether he can. But he has a past at Melbourne City, and maybe he will be extra motivated by playing against old teammates.

So inefficiency in front of goal is the main reason for today's game. But it is also important to mention that both Risdon and Lebib are injured. The latter they can cover for in central defense, but Risdon will be sorely missed at right back. And with the uncertainty that reigns between the posts, it could quickly be a tough day at work for Perth Glory

Our best betting suggestions

Last year Melbourne City won 8-0 here. And the first meeting earlier this year ended 0-5 to City, when they visited the West Coast. So the psychological advantage is clearly with the light blues. But the bookmakers have priced City goals very low, and with all the offensive failures of the home team, we don't find value there. But we can still use the information we have available to find other bets with value. And we think;

Melbourne City to win -1.5

Because we will be surprised if City does not win this one. But at the same time we have to go up to 2.5 goals for the home team to get odds with value. And with so many offensive players out, and not least that those who are back are still a little behind schedule, we do not dare to do that. But against the league's worst away team, who now stand with 0-3-2 in the last five, we throw in a handicap.

And while we don't like to play pure marks in this league, we should remember that Perth have only scored 12 goals in 17 league games this year. And they are still averaging under 1 goal per away game, with their six goals in seven away games.

And it helps to know that only the utterly boring Auckland have been better at the back than Melbourne City. But 15 goals behind in 15 games, Perth will struggle to score, and if Tilio, Caputo and Leckie approach match fit they could easily score three or four goals here.

Our conclusion

City are a good team, and not least a good home team, who despite offensive lapses have looked very solid in the past. And when they then face the league's worst away team, who have also crossed a continent to get to the game, and who are also struggling to score, we think there is good value in the following game;

Australia at 07:00: Melbourne City - Perth Glory: Melbourne City to win -1.5 goals (1.85)