Marseille - Atalanta 05-11-2025

Let the fall rage, and let the winter come. Because if they plan to serve us PSG against Bayern Munich, Manchester City against Dortmund, Bodø/Glimt against Monaco and Liverpool against Real Madrid between weekends that are also packed with goodies, then I will survive. By a good margin.

But here, in this analysis, we are not going to visit any of the already mentioned matches. We will let others take care of those. On the other hand, we are going to France's most important port city and the capital of the Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur region. Namely; Marseille. And when my two favorite teams meet, as they did in the Europa League last year, I have to take a closer look.

Marseille – controlled chaos

In many ways, the club fits very well where it is located. Or; maybe the club is a product of the city? Marseille is the gateway for many refugees from Africa. Which has led to Marseille oozing with different cultures, smells and tastes. But the multicultural city also has its challenges. And so does Olympique de Marseille.

But we'll leave the businessman, politician, actor and singer Bernard Tapie alone. The years with him as president and owner were turbulent. But also successful. Among other things, they won the League Winners' Cup in 1993. But more about that another time. Now Roberto De Zerbi is managing the team, and we know him well.

The passionate Italian has put things in order in France's second largest city, and it's been a long time since the home fans burned down a clubhouse. Thank goodness. But he has also turned Marseille into a stable and good football team. At the time of writing, they are only two points behind PSG, and although their form is a bit on the decline, the dream of a change of hegemony is alive and well in the domestic series.

In Marseille, De Zerbi has had time to compose a team that suits his playing style. We know that he likes to play on pressure, get out of difficult situations using triangles and high precision in the passing game and not least that there are fast counterattackers who are ready when the ball has passed the first pressure link of the opponent. Then the ball should be quickly in the longitudinal direction, and it is best not to use too many attempts because the ball is in the net.

And with a ball-secure back four, and a confident Pierre-Emile Højbjerg to receive the passes, and then set up a very fast and goal-scoring Mason Greenwood, De Zerbi's football has silenced all critics. The Italian has been a much-talked-about character, but it seems he has perfected his style since he was at Sassuolo, via Shaktar Donetsk and Brighton before coming here. When does it work. Finally.

But of course; his playing style is risky, and it is not uncommon for dangerous pass breaks in the build-up phase when Marseille plays. This has been the cause of both late goals, corners against and throw-ins high up the pitch. And if Atalanta chooses to stand high from the start, we could have a very entertaining football match here.

Atalanta – the era after Gian Piero Gasperini

When these teams met in the Europa League last year, it was Atalanta who were in charge of the party football. But since then Gasperini has left, and the squad looks very different. And although his philosophy is reasonably entrenched in the system after nine years in charge, Atalanta have not appeared as exuberant under Ivan Juric. When you also sell last year's top scorer, Retegui, to Saudi Arabia and choose to clash with the team's real profile, Ademola Lookman, there is little that reminds you of the good old days in Bergamo. Because those days were good. I won't reminisce too much, but my heart gets a little tender when I think back to Papu Gomez, Hateboer, Gosens, Malinovskyi, Illicic, Muriel and Zapata. Damn. Football was fun then.

But even though they are 0-5-0 in their last five in the series, the team is full of potential. We have seen what Krstovic can do, and now that Lookman is back in good terms with the management, they have a fantastic footballer back in the playful Nigerian. He has now started 7 games in a row, and most recently against AC Milan he was brilliant. In addition, De Ketelaere will tie the forwards together, scattering passes high and low, and in Sulemana they have a versatile striker who, with enormous speed and technique, can occupy several positions in the offensive line.

Conclusion – mismatch in odds

I stand 100% behind the odds setting when it comes to HUB. This match is wide open, and it is logical that Marseille are slight favorites as the home team. But with odds of 2.12, the bookmakers indicate that this match is open. There is no big favorite here. And that is why I was surprised by the odds on corners.

Because with 6.56 corners per game, only Inter creates more in the domestic league. And with players like Lookman and Sulemana ahead of a player like De Ketelaere, the attacks will come. They will probably also stress Marseille in the build-up phase, and we know the home team is vulnerable in that part of the game.

Now, Marseille have only conceded 3.40 corners per game, but it's not often they face teams of this caliber. In addition, we should remember that both of these are outside the top-8. And whoever loses this one could also end up outside the top-24. That's critical.

If we get an away team that dares to stand tall, and if the bookmakers are right that it is Marseille who will win, then it could well be that we have found gold here. And if we look at this year's three matches in the Champions League, Marseille has given away 6.33 corners on average. And in the only home match they have had so far, against Ajax, the Dutch were given a whopping seven corners. Therefore, we give the following bet a try;

Champions League at 21:00: Marseille – Atalanta: Over 3.5 corners to Atalanta (1.72)

Ps. It's natural to think about goals when Marseille meets Atalanta. And feel free to bet on that. I was just a little scared by what I saw against Slavia Prague. In addition, they have only managed three goals in the last five games in Serie A. That's why I found better value in today's main game.

Anyway; good luck.