Mariano Navone – Roberto Carballes Baena 18-02-2025

Then it's time for tournament number two in this year's "Golden Swing." A series of four tournaments in South America, named after Olympic medalists Nicolas Massu and Fernando Gonzalez.

No one has ever won more than two tournaments in the same year, something Baez managed as recently as last year. And this is another good reason to follow Fonseca this week. The youngster won in Buenos Aires last week, and is playing here on home soil.

But even though Baez will be on our odds list , there are two completely different players we will focus on today;

An analysis of Mariano Navone vs Roberto Carballes Baena

Although Navone made a commendable effort in his attempt to crack the hard court and grass court code in 2025, he is back on home turf here. At least figuratively speaking, because it is on the clay that he thrives best. But he was theoretically at home last week, in Argentina, and although he beat big names like Comesana and Rune, he fell short against Fonseca in the quarterfinals.

There he showed his enormous ability to build up points and exploit intricate angles. And we will see much more of that here. But Roberto Carballes Baena is no easy opponent. He is good in defense, and is good at both pulling out exchanges and fights. And like his opponent, he also thrives best on the red clay.

Two typical clay court players

Although both have extensive trophy cabinets, only Roberto Carballes Baena has won ATP titles. Two in total. And both on clay. But if we look at both the ITF and Challenger levels, both of them only have clay titles. So here we can expect a real clay battle.

And that was the last time these two met. Exactly one year ago, in February 2024. Back then, Roberto Carballes Baena won 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 in a match that lasted 2 hours and 44 minutes. And although we also have Navone as the favorite here, we think the match might be more even than the bookmakers are predicting.

An even match at good odds?

Because we were a little surprised when we saw where some bookmakers had placed the list. If we get at least one set to tiebreak, or 7-5, then this should be a bet, even without a third set. And at 1.71 it is a risk worth taking. Therefore, we land on the following bets;

Tennis at 22:30: Mariano Navone - Roberto Carballes Baena: Over 20.5 games (1.71)