Manchester City - Liverpool 23-02-25

Many would have thought that this would be a decisive match in the title race this season, but it didn't turn out that way. Or, maybe it is a bit like that after all? Manchester City don't have their own chances to play for the trophy, but they can clearly provide wormwood in Arne Slot's cup. Because we are at a critical point now. Liverpool wasted two points away to Aston Villa on Wednesday, and it would be fatal if Darwin Nunez's miss were to remain as the symbol of the title ambitions that derailed in February. These matches simply have to be won, and especially when you produce so many chances, without being left with the three points, it can be tough to get back up again. The Etihad is not the place to find your footing again. Not in a normal season, that is. Because Manchester City is not themselves. The performance in Madrid scared no one, perhaps except Pep himself, and it will be very interesting to see how the team responds to being out of the Champions League. Should Liverpool leave City's big room with three points, I'm afraid the home team's season will seriously crumble.

Manchester City – The decline continues for the light blues

It ended up being 3-6 on aggregate against Real Madrid. Two deserved losses, and in reality not even close. It obviously hurts the big club not to be able to follow up on last year's season, and perhaps even more that they were played around to such an extent. City didn't seem to believe in their own skills, and Mbappé was basically allowed to do exactly as he wanted. This has to be sorted out relatively quickly, because on Sunday Salah is coming to visit, and the Egyptian is walking on water during the day.

In the league, City are fourth, 17 points behind Liverpool. There is little that is right for Pep's boys this season, at least if the league gold is to be the goal, and it is. 35 goals have been conceded in 25 rounds, also an abnormally high number. And here we can actually stop for a moment. Because the number of personal mistakes in the back rows is a bit shocking. Support beams from previous seasons look like Bambi on the ice, and regularly give away goals. It is strange to see a player like Guardiola mess up so much. Self-confidence is like dew in the sun, and there is little that resembles the machine that has wreaked havoc in light blue for several seasons now. The fact that Erling Haaland may also have to watch this from the sidelines doesn't help either.

Ahead of the match against Liverpool, there is a lot of honor at stake. The home team must rise after the failure in Madrid, and at the same time they are playing for Champions League games next season. Because be aware of this, if City continues at the pace they have now, this is not a guarantee. As of now, they are three points down to seventh place. A place that offers nothing more than a seat in the middle of the sofa when the anthem is played next season.

Liverpool – Salah needs more people to come forward now

There is a lot of Salah these days. His somewhat sensational season could end with very little if the others don't step up a notch. The match against Aston Villa is a good example. Diogo Jota was alone through, but his attempt ended with a throw-in for the home team. Darwin Nunez would probably like to forget the whole thing, because again he failed when it mattered most. Power before precision is like the Uruguayan's mantra, and then it ends as it must. The squad will then be the army leader from Egypt, and in the long run it will not last all the way. The bright spot for Liverpool ahead of the big match in Manchester is that Gakpo is reported ready, while Diaz will be recovered. This is probably the attacking trio that will trouble City's uncertain defense.

Because here Liverpool must have three points. One point in isolation would be okay, but it quickly leads to Arsenal being right on the heels of the Reds, and then this title race is wide open again. How Slot attacks this scenario will be exciting to see, because there is a lot at stake next Sunday is beyond any doubt. Liverpool are odds-on favorites, away against Manchester City, and that is a pretty good indication of how the pendulum has swung in the direction of the team from the Beatles city. The away team's mobile midfield trio will soon be the key, and if Diaz, Gakpo and Salah have their day, this could end up being a joyous one for the Reds.

Liverpool have 32 points from 14 away games in the Premier League this season. An average of just under 2.3 points. The goal difference is 36-16, and they are also the league's best away team by far. Now the away game against Aston Villa ended with a draw, and 2-2 on the scoreboard, but again the Reds created an overwhelming number of chances, as evidenced by an xG of 2.44. My guess is that the away team will attack City where it hurts the most, and constantly put pressure on the home team's back lines. It could be a lot for the light blues to handle, especially with the Madrid game in their legs.

Conclusion – Is attack the best defense?

So then we know where the country stands. City must rise after another brutal loss, while Liverpool must put three points in the bank. It will probably lead to an entertaining and nerve-wracking match, where the away team in particular knows that sharing points here is not enough. The scenario could have been a little different if the match away against Villa was won, but now just victory is good enough. The home team has had a sad tendency to mess it up in defense, and at the same time the team seems somewhat heavy and sluggish, perhaps especially in the middle. Here Liverpool have foot-step perpetual motion machines, and it will be exciting to see how Pep wants to stem it. Rodri would obviously have been the answer, but as long as the Spaniard is not available, you have to think again. It has proven difficult.

We keep Liverpool as narrow favorites, as the odds indicate, and we expect red goals. Whether they will last to win is uncertain, but if there are to be three points, one must question City's defensive play. Slot probably has the plan ready. Haaland is uncertain ahead of the big game, and without the Norwegian at the top, City's chances will be reduced. We choose to recommend a goal bet on the away team anyway, as we feel this is the most likely outcome that gives a playable odds. At least two goals for Liverpool, preferably signed by Salah, will therefore be our bet in the giant duel at the Etihad. Note that it is now two years since Manchester City last beat Liverpool, and that the match at Anfield in early December ended with a 2-0 victory for the reds. Goals by Gakpo and Salah at the time, with an xG for Liverpool of over 3.5.

England at 17:30: Manchester City – Liverpool: Over 1.5 goals to the away team (1.70)

Alternative game

England at 17:30: Manchester City - Liverpool: Salah scores (2.15)