Manchester City–Arsenal

Arsenal did it again. Stumbled when they should have been standing firm. The curse will never end. At home against Bournemouth, they lose, and with that, Manchester City is back in the game. The Londoners had the gold wholesalers at arm's length, but now they are light blue at shooting range. It will all be cemented on Sunday, in a way. Arsenal lead by six points, but City have a game in hand. At the same time, the Gunners have a slightly better goal difference. Should City win on Sunday, on their own turf, the gap is down to three points, and the goal difference is evened out. Then it will be a real acid test from here on in. But should Arsenal take the bull by the horns, break City to the ground, and go home with three points in their bag, you can start planning the big party. The home team really can't live with a point gap now. City must win, while Arsenal cannot lose. When it comes to football matches with everything at stake, it doesn't get much bigger than this Sunday!

Manchester City - This is what they can do

City have been here so many times before, so it's nothing new that you write April and the league championship is about to be won. Pep has steely control on the run-up side, and it's far from the first time that they end up a point ahead of number two right at the finish line. They know what's going on, and they know what it takes. Of course, it helps that Arsenal seem somewhat uncertain, while they themselves won the League Cup against the reds from London. There are several aspects that speak in favor of a new feat signed by Pep and the victorious ones.

Some are just better at winning than others. City thrashed Liverpool 4-0 in the FA Cup, beat Arsenal 2-0 in the League Cup final, and crushed Chelsea 3-0 away in the last round of the league. Just when the red lights start to blink ever so slightly in the distance, they step up their game. They raise the bar, run faster, fight harder, and win the games. We've seen it ever since the famous Aguero goal in extra time, City have become good at winning. Of course, that goes beyond everyone else, and this year it's Arsenal who will get a taste of the machinery from Manchester.

This League Cup final could be decisive on Sunday. Pep won, he made a better plan than Arteta, and he probably sees better form in his players than his colleague can boast. Important cards like Haaland, Silva, Cherki, Semenyo and Guehi seem to find the necessary class, and the total will be terrifying. A victory on Sunday would make the end of the season a real classic. It would not surprise anyone if it resulted in new light blue bubbles. The only thing missing is a festive Grealish with his party glasses on.

Arsenal – Can they turn the tide in record time?

Because it has to happen now. Arteta has to stop the bleeding, reset, set a new course, and at least grab a draw. You don't have much time, it has to happen at once. Arsenal has three losses in their last five, and the games against Sporting are the only ones that have gone the right way. What is also a little alarming is that overall they were left with 1-0, without a goal on home soil. They don't want to get in front of the goal, and they don't get many chances either. You almost have to ask yourself if these offensive cards for Arsenal are good enough. The thing is obvious, but with injury-prone as he is, there will be a lot of start and stop. Madueke, for example, seems far too weak. Trossard as well. Havertz is also up and down a lot. It's the Swede with the Batman mask who is the asset. It doesn't help that the team's captain is showing greater and greater signs of a body that has taken enough beatings. Martin Ødegaard is struggling with pain far more frequently now than before, and if this is not corrected, the question is whether Ødegaard will also be weighed and found too light in time.

The central duo in midfield is solid. Rice and Zubimendi are class. If only they had a few more cards up front that created problems for the opponent, this would have looked good. The fact is, however, that they have three goals in the last five, and for a team that wants to fight for the big titles, that doesn't hold up. Ødegaard, Saka, Merino and Timber on the pitch could have made the difference. Arteta is in a way unlucky now.

What can you hope for this Sunday then? Arsenal will probably do as they often do, make sure that the defense is in order. Sharing points ensures that the gap is intact, and also gives the team a fair chance of getting to the goal first. It is a fragile approach, however. Assuming that City takes an early lead, which they are capable of doing, then the visitors will have to respond. Then it will not help that the team is set up to keep the zero. Unfortunately, there is much to suggest that Arsenal will have to have the flow on their side to come out of this unscathed.

Conclusion – The student versus the teacher

Pep vs Arteta. City vs Arsenal. First place vs second place. City have the momentum, Arsenal have the lead in the table. So, which way does this swing? What is the point difference between the teams when they find the cushion on Sunday?

If Arsenal come up with a plan to park the bus, the match could become a bit of an anticlimax. And they do it quickly. That's why betting on goals in this one is a bit risky if you ask me. City have to win, that much can be said, and at some point you just have to go for it. If it's 0-0 at this point, Arsenal can of course counterattack to take a lead towards the end, and laugh all the way home to London. But then the visitors will have to stay in the match for a long time, they have to endure the beating, and they have to endure the pressure from the stands. The feeling is still that it will be too much to handle. That City simply takes the lead during the first half, and thus forces a more open match. Arsenal did not benefit from that.

We therefore end up recommending a selection. City wins the match, ensures that the gap is reduced to three points, and with the hanging game they have to their credit, it is therefore wide open ahead of the final month of the season. City has the home ground, the crowd, form and experience. It will be decisive on Sunday.

England at 17:30: Manchester City – Arsenal: Home win (1.89)

Alternative game

England at 17:30: Manchester City – Arsenal: E. Haaland scores (1.97)