Mainz – St. Pauli 22-02-2025

Mainz 05 host St. Pauli at the MEWA Arena on Saturday afternoon in an important match for both teams. The hosts are chasing a place in European competition next season, while the visitors are fighting to avoid being dragged into the relegation battle. Both teams have been solid defensively, but St. Pauli is struggling to score goals, which could be decisive in this match. The analysis choice fell on this match because we need a different approach here, a somewhat unfamiliar approach if you will, seen in the context of a very goal-scoring league where we have a match where few goals are expected. In this way, you can quickly find valuable games that could otherwise be easily overlooked.

Mainz 05 – built on solid defensive structure

Mainz have had an impressive season so far and are in 6th place after 22 rounds. Bo Henriksen's men have been strong at home, where they have gone undefeated in their last 7 matches at the MEWA Arena. After drawing 0-0 against Augsburg in their previous home match, they bounced back with a solid 2-0 win away to Heidenheim last weekend.

The team has one of the best defensive records in the league, conceding just 24 goals, bettered only by Bayern Munich (19). They have also kept a clean sheet in four of their last five home games. Up front, Jonathan Burkardt has been a key figure with 13 goals this season, including six match-winners – second only to Harry Kane in the Bundesliga.

If Mainz wins here and Leipzig and Freiburg drop points, they could potentially climb into the top four. With a solid defensive organization and strong home form, there is great optimism among the home team's supporters. There are also no major absences, so Mainz is in a strong position here.

St. Pauli – also solid defensively, but also struggling to find the back of the net

The visitors from Hamburg have had a difficult period and come into this match after three straight games without a win. They lost 2-0 to Leipzig and 1-0 at home to Freiburg in their last two matches, and they have now gone goalless in 12 of their 22 league games this season. St. Pauli are 14th, just five points above the relegation zone, and they risk being dragged into the bottom battle if they do not find their form again.

Although St. Pauli have struggled offensively, they have been solid defensively. They have conceded just 25 goals this season, the third-best defensive record in the league. Four of their six wins have come away from home, including impressive triumphs against Freiburg (3-0), Hoffenheim (2-0) and Stuttgart (1-0). However, they are in a weak period with two straight losses and they cannot afford another defeat. That kind of pressure is mentally tough to go into a game knowing you will face a defensive wall.

The visitors will be without several key players, including Ahlers, Burchert, Guilavogui, Mets, Saliakas and Zoller, which could further weaken an already goal-starved team.

Expect a defensive battle with underplay in focus

This is a match between two of the Bundesliga's most solid defensive teams, so it could be a low-scoring match. However, Mainz have proven strong at home, while St. Pauli have struggled to find the back of the net. So we first look at the following exciting options:

• Both teams not to score (1.78). This is based on St. Pauli's inability to find the back of the net, especially in the last 2 games and the fact that they face a strong defensive team that has kept a clean sheet in 3 of the last 5 games. The previous match was also won by Mainz 3-0.
• Mainz wins and keeps the score (2.77). This is of course a risky high-odds bet, but now several important players are out for St. Pauli, so if there are any games in the season where such bets should be considered, I would argue that this is one of them.
• Under 2.5 goals (1.70). This one builds a bit on the two bets above and could be a nice alternative. Mainz's last 4 out of 5 games have ended with under 2.5 goals and the same goes for St. Pauli. It was 3-0 the previous game between these, but I'm not putting too much stock in it here.

What I also want to look at is mostly based on having watched various matches from Mainz this season. There is aggression in the team and tackling, they don't hold back. With that, it comes short. Furthermore, they have impressed with offensive power in line with defensive power, something few teams manage to do. This has led to a nice corner cut, but as we will see further down, recent form does not necessarily support the season statistics here. Finally, we bring with us a simple goalscoring game.

• Mainz has 3 or more yellow cards in 4 of their last 5 games. In their last match against St. Pauli, they ended up with 3 yellow cards. They average 2.41 cards per game, and I think the value for cards on the home team is good here: over 2.5 cards is available at 2.33. If you want a safer bet, perhaps combined with another bet in a double, then over 1.5 cards is available at 1.44 in odds.
• On the corner side, Mainz averages 4.82 corners per match. There have been some mixed drops on this point lately, and it doesn't fully represent the average. In the last 5 matches they have had everything from 1 corner to 9 corners. In the previous match against St. Pauli there were 2 corners (4 in total in the match). So it is clear that the statistics do not support overbetting here, but you can consider live betting (then with a focus on Mainz, who I assume will take control of the match). Here you get, for example, over 5.5 corners at 1.71. The total number of corners is not a good odds value, as it is based on statistics.
• Jonathan Burkardt has delivered this season. He has 13 goals and is in 5th place on the top scorer list. Recent scoring averages must be disregarded, as he has been injured. He scored in the previous match against Heidenheim and will undoubtedly be one of the biggest threats St. Pauli has to fight against. Burkardt as a goalscorer is available at 2.38.

Mainz have home field advantage and a solid defensive structure which should give them an advantage against a St. Pauli team in decline. And there will be a lot of bets in Mainz's favor here, but it is based on value and the premise of this match. The visitors have been good defensively, but their inability to score goals could cost them dearly here. Mainz should be the favorites to take three points and solidify their position in the fight for European play. The main bets here will be:

Germany at 15:30: Mainz 05 – St. Pauli: Both teams do not score (1.78) 

Alternative game:

Germany at 15:30: Mainz 05 – St. Pauli: Over 2.5 short for Mainz (2.33)