Mainz 05 – Freiburg

We have an exciting match in store when Mainz 05 host Freiburg on Saturday afternoon. This match will be exciting primarily because both teams are strong defensively, which makes the tactical approach crucial. Both teams have had a solid season, and the preparations have probably been characterized by a great focus on how to break each other down. Who will win the defensive duel between Bo Henriksen and Julian Schuster remains to be seen, but there is no doubt that they both know how to close down at the back.

Mainz is in 3rd place after going five games without a loss, of which the last four have ended in victory. Freiburg is three points behind in 5th place and has an unbeaten streak of six games. A defensive duel is unusual in an otherwise goal-rich league, which makes this matchup extra interesting to analyze. The match is also of the important kind: Neither team can afford to lose if they are to keep up with the fight for a European place.

Mainz 05 – The European dream is alive and well

With 44 points from 25 games (13-5-7), Mainz 05 have never been so high at this stage of a Bundesliga season. The team started weakly with only two wins in the first seven games, but bounced back with six wins in the next seven. After a variable period with only one win in four games, they have now found great form with five games in a row without defeat. Henriksen has implemented a fantastic defensive composure in the team, which has become an increasingly important part of their DNA throughout the season.

Last round they beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 away, their fourth straight win. Mainz 05 have won six of their last seven home games, and with five defeats in those games defensive stability has been a key to their success. However, they have historically struggled against Freiburg, with a seven-game winless streak. Only against Union Berlin do they have a longer negative record in the Bundesliga. It will undoubtedly be a tough battle, but with this year's solid Mainz team, the belief in victory is stronger than it has been in a long time.

For this match, Mainz will have to do without centre-back Bell, who is out with a hamstring injury. This means that Danny da Costa, Moritz Jenz and Dominik Kohr will likely form the back three. In midfield, Sano and Amiri are expected to take their places centrally, while Caci and Mwene will probably operate as wing-backs. Further up the pitch, there could be changes in the attacking line-up as Burkardt had to go out with an injury against Borussia Mönchengladbach. If he is not fit, Weiper will be the most likely option to take his place up top, with Paul Nebel and Lee as the other attacking pieces. Burkhardt has 14 goals this season and is naturally an essential piece in Mainz 05's attacking game, so it is important to keep an eye on whether he will be fit for this match or not.

Key statistics for Mainz 05:

• Undefeated in last five games (4-1-0)
• Six wins in the last seven home games
• Kept a clean sheet in five of the last seven home games

Freiburg – Defensive wall and chase for Europa League

Freiburg have been extremely solid at the back and set a new club record when they kept a clean sheet for the sixth consecutive game in the 0-0 draw against RB Leipzig. They are well placed to extend that record here. With 41 points after 25 games, Freiburg are currently enjoying their third-best Bundesliga season ever, surpassed only by 2022-23 (46) and 1994-95 (49).

With a win in this match, Freiburg can potentially move into the top four and enter the fight for a Champions League place. They have won two of their last three away games, after going five straight without a win on foreign turf. It must be mentioned that the opposition has been of lower quality in several of these matches. This year's edition of Mainz 05 is far stronger than Bochum, Heidenheim, St. Pauli and Werder Bremen, so Freiburg will have to be at their very best.

Freiburg also have some injury concerns ahead of this round. Florent Muslija is struggling with an ankle injury and could miss the game, while Ogbus is out for the rest of the season with an Achilles injury. Kyereh is still out with a knee injury that will likely keep him on the sidelines until March, and Rosenfelder could miss his fourth straight game due to illness. In addition, Röhl is uncertain after missing the previous game. In the absence of several offensive players, Lucas Höler could be given a deeper attacking midfield role behind Adamu. Grifo started the last game on the bench, but could be back in the starting lineup this time, which in that case could mean Dinkci has to make way.

Key statistics for Freiburg:

• Six straight games without a loss (4-2-0)
• Kept a clean sheet in six consecutive games – a new club record
• Won two of their last three away games

Underplay will probably soon be the way to go here

The last time these two met it ended 0-0. And it was a match that ended up on the odds list where a high-odds draw was suggested. And it is not surprising that underplays, draws or some 'forgotten' statistics that may have good value here are looked at more closely. Should this be a goal-rich affair, I will be extremely surprised, it will be rare between these two, and how that will happen when both have a fantastic (defensive) season is difficult to imagine. The last 4 matches have ended with under 2.5 goals and this is where we start:

• Under 2.5 goals (1.74): With good odds, statistics and expectations for this match in terms of the teams' form and team news, this is clearly the first candidate for the main game. Mainz has 5 clean sheets at home this season, Freiburg with 6 away and both teams are in the upper echelon of keeping close at the back. It is assumed that this will be a ball-throwing match where they try to find loopholes through breakthrough play. We know that there are goals in both teams, but the defense is the strongest. This is a solid candidate for the main game.
• Draw (3.40): This one is exciting, because you always get high odds on a draw. The last 3 of 4 matches between these have ended in a draw (0-0, 1-1 and 1-1). Mainz has won the last 4, but it must be said that at least 3 of these opponents can be considered weaker opposition. Before that, there was a draw against Augsburg. Freiburg is coming off 2 straight draws, against Leipzig and Augsburg. There is a lot of room for another draw here.
• Mainz over 1.5 cards (1.52): A low-odds alternative is a card bet on Mainz. At home, they average 2.33 cards per match. Last time against Freiburg, there were 2 cards, and in the last 5, Mainz has an average of 2.2 cards per match. It can be argued that it could quickly be a tough battle, but they face a very disciplined Freiburg and it is difficult to predict whether the match will have that type of aggressiveness. It is published late who referees the matches in the Bundesliga, and at the time of writing I cannot find a referee listed for this match. If Ittrich, Willenborg or Hartmann is listed here, this will be looked at more closely. These are high on the card average per match and in an important match here, this could quickly become a relevant bet. And then you can also look upwards at over 2.5 cards for Mainz (2.55) .

The last thing that can be mentioned is of course a selection bet on one of the teams, preferably combined with keeping a clean sheet. But here I can't pick a clear favorite, so I may have to use live bets. Without dwelling too much on the options, it's most natural to go for under bets here. The main bet is therefore:

Germany at 15:30: Mainz 05 - Freiburg: Under 2.5 goals (1.74)

Alternative game:

Germany at 15:30: Mainz 05 – Freiburg: Draw (3.40)