Closed – Vaasan Sport 31-03-2025

We have reached the third round of the quarterfinals in the playoffs of the Liiga in Finland. A league that a few years ago was ranked as the second best league in Europe. This is a league that is outside the Finnish Hockey Association. But they have good cooperation, and an understanding of how this is organized. They have also, for the first time in many years, reached an agreement on promotion/relegation from Mestis, the league below this. Now the team that loses the Playout series of the two bottom teams, meets the winner of the Playoff in Mestis.

But enough about that. Now we're going to the other end of the scale, where Lukko takes on Vaasan Sport in a match at Aijansuo Arena in Rauma, Finland. Lukko, who won the regular season this season, will once again be visited by the team that finished 11th, Vaasan Sport. There should be a good chance that the home team will take this one.

They have already played two games in this series, and both have ended in victory for Lukko. First they won 6-2 at home, before they also won 1-4 away. Solid things from the favorite, and we believe they will continue in the same vein. Here it is about saving energy by winning in as few games as possible.

Lukko – The seriousness has lifted the team.

Lukko, who struggled against today's opponent earlier in the season, has risen dramatically in these matches. In fact, Lukko did not win more than 1 of 4 matches against this team during the regular season. They also won it after overtime. So if you look at this as a basis, you can think that this match could have easily gone the other way from what we think. But we have been on the ball in the first two matches here, and had tips on Lukko winning at good odds in both. Because there is no doubt that this team will be better than its opponent. Something we have also seen in the first two matches.

As I said, the seriousness has begun, and the team seems to be sharpened. Clearly the best in the home game they won 6-2, where they dominated the shooting statistics with a whopping 36-17. The away game was more even, but with good goalkeeping and effective attackers they won 1-4, as I said, even though the shooting statistics this time were 19-19. The team was clearly the best in both boxes, and the result was very well deserved even though the statistics this time were even. The surplus and energy have also been noticeably better for the home team. We are betting that it is a trend that continues.

Vaasan Sport – Tough match schedule can be decisive.

Because while Lukko has had a nice break heading into the quarterfinals, Vaasan Sport has had to play 4 tough games against KooKoo to get to this quarterfinal. We think that has been the big difference between these teams in the first two games. They played games on March 18 and 19, as well as March 21 and 22, before starting the matches against their opponent.

The games tend to be close, which of course takes a toll on the players. While Lukko had 11 days off, Vaasan Sport had to play 4 games in the same period. Vaasan Sport's problem is that they are neither good forwards nor backs on the pitch. They have no confidence in what they are doing, and often wins or losses seem very random. They can suddenly beat a top team, before losing the next game to the bottom team.

This unstable form is certainly not helping to build self-confidence in such matches. If we look at away form in isolation, this is also a crisis. Because there are actually only 2 teams that are worse on foreign ice throughout the season. 30 games and 32 points are a given, and a negative goal difference of 79-102. We think it will be too tough away against one of the favorites to win it all.

Conclusion – Quality difference should be enough.

We think that sometimes games seem so obvious that you don't need to argue so much to try a game. This is one such match. Two solid wins, when it counts, make Lukko the natural favorites.

The problem is that bookmakers also understand that. So there are not all the odds in the world on a clean home win. So here we have to go to a handicap bet. But we don't see that as the big problem. If the favorite wins first in a playoff match, it is often by two goals or more. We see that time and time again. Opponents get desperate at the end of the match, and play with an open goal to score. It just as often ends in a goal against them. We have also seen teams take out a goalkeeper even though they have a sent off at the end, so here all reason is gone when you go into panic mode.

We believe in a victory for Lukko, and we believe in a victory with more goals. So that's why we play.

Hockey at 17:30: Lukko – Vaasan Sport: Lukko wins -1.5 goals (1.88)