Lock – Kärpät 09-01-2025

This week we take a trip to Finland and the Liiga. The top league in Finland has been one of the best leagues in Europe since 1975. Many great players have found their way through playing here.

After struggling a bit, we found a fantastically good game in the German DEL last time. We continue to search deep, and some of the reason for that can be found here in this article we wrote a while ago. We believe that if you look hard in the slightly lesser-known leagues and sports, you often find good games. Which we also believe this time.

This time we are going to Rauma, a small town in Finland with about 40,000 inhabitants. Here the home team is Lukko, a team the whole town rallies around. They are favorites when they meet Kärpät at home this round, and will definitely be disappointed if they don't win this one.

Lukko – Top team as usual.

As usual, Lukko is fighting at the top of the table. They are currently in a good 2nd place. 4 points behind league leader Tappara. But if you look down the table, it is close. In that sense, this is not a match Lukko wants to lose. They are simply dependent on victory, to hold on to their good position. We think they will soon be able to do that too.

Because we have a home team that is in good form at the moment. They have won 4 of the last 5 games, and even though they lost at home last time, we believe in a better result this time. The loss came against SaiPa who is in 4th place.

But this time it's top to bottom, and the conditions for winning are absolutely present. Kärpät, who they now face, is all the way down in 14th place, and should normally not be a threat here.

It is especially at the back of the pitch that there is a difference between the teams. For Lukko is one of the best teams defensively. With 90 goals conceded in 36 matches, there are only two teams that have conceded fewer goals in this year's Liiga. It is lacking a little up front, but it has been quite okay with 112 in 36 matches. Here there are actually 6 teams that have scored more, including today's opponent. That is probably also the reason why the odds are as good as they are. There is a threat in today's opponent considering what they produce up front on the pitch.

Kärpät – A disappointment in the last two years.

Kärpät, who as recently as the 23/24 season were number 4 in the Liiga. They have been very disappointing the last two seasons. Last year they were number 13, which is the place just outside the playoffs, and this year they followed up by being in 14th place so far. They simply have to make sure that they don't end up in the relegation playoffs (15 and 16). Right now, only goal difference is keeping them out of that position.

The team is also in bad shape these days, and has only won 1 of the last 5 games. But it should also be said that they have faced good opposition, and they do so in this one too. They fight hard, and often play evenly with many of the better teams. But often end up losing in the end. But the fact that they play so evenly with so many, keeps us from thinking of a handicap game.

The team scores well with goals, as I said. But they are like a sieve backwards in the field. Which is often the reason why they lose so many even matches. They simply cannot hold on when they have got into a position to win. 115-124 in 37 matches, which means that they have conceded the most goals of anyone so far in this year's Liiga.

Conclusion – Favorite with value.

Here it is so easy for a clear favorite to meet a bottom team out of form. When we still get value on a clean win for the favorite. Then it must be tried. If we also include the internal results from this year, Lukko has won both. 5-2 as late as 10.12.2025 and 5-7 away early in the season.

Historically, Lukko also has a very good hold on Kärpät, and stands with 9 wins and 1 loss in the last 10. We must therefore try the following bets:

Hockey at 17:30: Lukko – Kärpät: Lukko wins (1.72)