Liverpool – PSG 11-03-2025

This year's robbery was carried out in Paris on March 5, 2025! The previous match did not go quite as we had imagined, and Liverpool were outplayed and outclassed in every way, except for putting the ball in the goal. If it hadn't been for a very good Alisson in goal for Liverpool, I think it would have been very ugly in Paris.

In tonight's game I hope and believe we will have a more open game, a game like I imagined in the last round. Preferably with goals for both teams, and hopefully more goals. This time the game will be played at Anfield, and the roles will probably reverse tonight. I don't believe Liverpool will play two such games as they did in Paris. Liverpool city is known for mobilizing before European games, and the atmosphere will probably be electric when the players arrive on the pitch and when they sing "You Never Walk Alone"

Liverpool – Robbery of the year?

What really happened to Liverpool in the last match? There was only one player who showed up for Liverpool in the last match, and it was a very good Alisson who stopped 10 out of 10 shots that came at him, and he saved 2.34 expected goals. Number of shots: 27-2. Shots on goal: 10-1. Ball possession: 70 percent–30 percent. Goals: 0-1. Congratulations on the robbery of the year!

Arne Slot said at the pre-match press conference that he did not agree that Liverpool played a bad game, but that it was PSG who played an incredibly good game! He highlighted that they have not faced a team this season that has so much quality and intensity. He was determined that they would do better in the return match at Anfield with the help of the fans, but pointed out that the intensity needs to be raised 3-4-5-6 notches. He also highlighted the example against Manchester City away and home and referred to the difference in ball possession in the two games, where they were better at home than away.

At home in the Champions League this season, Liverpool have played 4 games, with 4 straight wins and a goal difference of 10-1, 54% to 46% possession and 17-14 corners (4.25-3.5 on average). In the Premier League, they have played 14 games, which have ended 11-2-1, with a goal difference of 31-11. In terms of corners, they have produced 80 (5.71 on average) to 67 (4.79).

Liverpool played Southampton on Saturday, and Arne Slot chose not to rest any of his players. The only players who started in Paris and were rested over the weekend were Robertson, Mac Allister and Diogo Jota. Otherwise, they look to have a nearly full squad, apart from Joe Gomez, Conor Bradley and Tyler Morton who are still out with injuries. It is rumoured that Cody Gakpo is back in full training and could be ready for Tuesday's game.

I think we will see a completely different Liverpool team than the one we saw in Paris. I think we will see a Liverpool that we “recognise” from previous matches in the Champions League and Premier League, and the players have stated that they did not like PSG’s assertiveness in the media. They will “jack them down” and secure promotion in front of their own fans!

PSG – The only team so far to have "stopped" Liverpool?

What a game by PSG, and what a first half. My God, how they surprised Liverpool and ran them over to such an extent in the first half. Will we see anything similar in England? I don't think they will be as superior there, but they will probably have the ball by far the most, and they have to go forward and score goals to have a chance of progressing. PSG's self-confidence is high, and they play with extremely high intensity and pressure.

The players are extremely eager for revenge, and they almost promise PSG goals in Liverpool and that PSG will advance. It bodes well for us neutrals in this match. As I said, PSG had 22 matches without a loss before the Liverpool match. Now they started the trip counter away against Rennes and have collected one win since last time and are aiming for another win this Tuesday. Based on Wednesday's match, I wouldn't be surprised if PSG is the team that knocks Liverpool off the stick, because there aren't many teams that have been close as far as I can see.

There are many who do not believe in PSG's advancement after they did not get any points at home, and that is precisely what PSG manager Luis Enrique uses as motivation for his group. PSG have never won the Champions League, and that is the biggest goal they have set themselves. They are still struggling with the "ghost of elimination" from previous years. Enrique says that they have just as big plans to attack as they did in Paris, and they will go forward and attack. He also points out that the team that wins this round is the team that will reach the final.

Previously in the Champions League, PSG has played 5 away games, winning 3 and losing 2, with a goal difference of 4-10. PSG has had an average of 59% possession and produced 24 (5-3-5-8-3) corners and 14 (1-4-1-2-6) against. In Paris, PSG ended up with 14 corners and conceded 2.

PSG have a full squad and no injuries to report. PSG played away against Rennes on Saturday and rested a lot of players. From Wednesday's starting eleven, only Pacho, Neves and Barcola started away against Rennes, the rest of the players were rested. Five from the starting eleven came on in the 64th and 74th minutes. PSG still have to be careful with cards, considering a possible quarter-final. Several players are at risk of suspension.

Game suggestions:

According to the bookmakers, Liverpool are favourites at 2.28 to 2.95 for PSG, and they are clearly expecting goals, as over 2.5 goals "only" gives 1.57. Given the teams' goal averages, over 1.5 goals for both teams could be an exciting bet. Over 1.5 goals for Liverpool gives 1.88, and 1.5 goals for PSG gives 2.20. Liverpool's match corner average is 7.75, and PSG has 7.6 match corners on the away pitch. Over 9.5 corners at 1.61 can be considered. Over 5.5 corners for PSG at a nice 1.91 is also good, considering the previous match with 14 PSG corners in Paris! Both teams to score only gives 1.52, but if you combine both teams to score + over 2.5 goals, you get 1.80, which is a good bet.

Conclusion:

Before the last match I was 100% sure that PSG were totally dependent on taking points at home, but because of the performance in the last match I have become more uncertain, and my gut feeling says that PSG will take this match, but it is marginal. I think it will be a more even match, and Liverpool will definitely be more forward than they were last time. PSG will probably have the most ball and press Liverpool high, at the same time they will have to be careful of Liverpool's counterattacks if they lose the ball.

Since PSG is the team that is already down 1-0 and has to come forward and attack, tonight I choose to go for corner bets on PSG. Over 5.5 corners gives a nice 1.91, which I think is a good price considering what is at stake for PSG and that they have to come forward. Last game they had 27 shots which resulted in 14 corners!

Champions League at 21:00: Liverpool - PSG : Over 5.5 corners to PSG (1.91)