Liverpool - Newcastle 16-03-25

It's final time on the ball island! The League Cup, or Carabao Cup as it is actually called, is the least prestigious of the three significant trophies in English football. But, we are talking about Wembley, and silverware in the cupboard is and remains a day of celebration. The League Cup is less prestigious than the venerable FA Cup. Much of the reason is probably that while the FA Cup is open to hundreds of British teams, only the top four divisions participate in the Carabao Cup. A few years ago, we would happily see teams fielding their reserve players in this cup, but it has picked up a bit in recent years, and now I dare say that the cup has a little more value again. After all, this is the opportunity for many teams to really challenge for a bigger trophy. Liverpool are the most successful of all time with their ten trophies, while Newcastle, on the other hand, can hit the table with a final loss. Historically, this is a rough match, but the reigning champions from the Beatles city are shaken after their exit from the Champions League on Tuesday. Can Newcastle finally go all the way to the top?

 

Liverpool – The best football team in the world, or maybe not?

 

Many experts have hyped Liverpool as the best football team in the world this season. It has been difficult to argue against it, at least up until this week. A solid lead in the domestic league, the final at Wembley, and a crushing victory in the regular season of this year's Champions League. If you spice this up with Salah and a giant center back from the Netherlands, the Reds have had good cards in their hand. But then PSG was on the opposite side. The match in Paris was of a strange kind, and Liverpool went home with a most undeserved 1-0 victory. With Anfield at their backs, and the floodlights on, this should have been managed safely. But, where they were lucky in France, they did not have the margins with them. Salah missed two early chances, Dembele scored against the flow of the game, and even with massive pressure after the break, there was never a goal. Substitute Quansah came closest when he headed the ball into the post. PSG gradually took over, and suddenly Liverpool were out of good company. Over two matches, there is little to say about it. What does this mean for the final on Sunday? Yes, we're thinking a lot.

 

First and foremost, Liverpool have 120 minutes of football in their legs. Newcastle, on the other hand, played 90 minutes the day before against West Ham, a match they also won. The wear and tear showed in the match against PSG, and Konate had to come off with a real cramp. He is reported in the schedule, so maybe he will still start on Sunday. One who is definitely out, however, is right-back Trent Alexander-Arnold. A massive loss for Liverpool, as his right foot is often the way to the big chances, and the great free plays by Salah, among others. In addition to wear and tear and the occasional injury, we have the psychological aspect. Liverpool smoked out, and the dream of standing there in May with the two biggest buckets is over and done with. A tough blow to deal with, and it will be very exciting to see how they respond when they now have to go out and play another important match. If they face Liverpool in a match, in familiar style, it must still be said that they carry a pretty clear favorite stamp.

 

Newcastle – More than just Alexander Isak

 

Newcastle are about to put behind them a great season. The form has varied somewhat drastically at times, but now that we are halfway through May, the team from the north has the opportunity for European play. It must be said to be completely in line with what one can expect. The bonus is of course Sunday's match against Liverpool in a final at Wembley. That is what one dreams of, when fighting in headwinds and sleet in November. Even if Liverpool have to accept being favorites, this will not be an easy task, because here there are players who can tip this in the direction of the black and white stripes.

 

The downside, however, is a couple of significant absences. Botman has been out for a while, but the fact that neither Hall nor Gordon will be on the mat on Sunday simply makes the team worse. Plain and simple. Gordon has had several good games against Liverpool, while Hall is one of the most promising full-backs in English football. This forces Howe to start with Livramento and Trippier, and one can say a lot of positive things about the latter, but he was definitely better before. Trippier will probably be found on the right in the back row, and will then potentially face Gakpo or Diaz, in what will suddenly become a small key duel in the match. The front trio consisting of Murphy, Isak and Barnes are capable of dancing, however, and with Joelinton and Tonali in the middle there is enough quality to be able to wear the most prestigious medals in the end.

 

Newcastle's challenge may be to get the team ticking over from the start. Over the past month they have faced both Manchester City and Liverpool, and been ripped to shreds in both. 0-4 against City was brutal, and the game at Anfield three weeks ago was terribly one-sided. Liverpool produced many chances, and Newcastle never really got into it. The conclusion was 0-2 in the bag, and defeated in most aspects of the game. You can't afford to end up under on Sunday, and the approach must be a compact defense, as well as exploiting the spaces on the right in Liverpool's defense. A certain Swede probably doesn't need to be asked twice.

 

Conclusion – Are Liverpool ready for a new test of manhood?

 

That will really be the biggest question heading into the final. Are Liverpool where they should be in terms of effort and energy? Arne Slot has a task to do heading into the match. He has to motivate, he has to turn this into an opportunity to immediately fight back, and he has to field the right team. We already know that Trent is out, but could there also be changes in midfield? In attack, Gakpo is probably the closest to getting back into the team.

 

The only thing we know for sure is that the player of the year, Mohamed Salah, will be found on the right. The Egyptian has 27 goals in 29 Premier League games, and has seemed almost unapproachable in recent months. The low point, also for him, came against PSG on Tuesday. He missed two clear chances early in the game, but then Mendes had control. That must have irritated the quick-footed winger quite a bit, and if we know him right now, he can't wait to fight back. From the chalk mark in the penalty shootout, he was, as usual, ice-cold. There were to be three penalty goals in the last two games. It is not at all inconceivable that we will see a penalty at Wembley either, as Liverpool usually have a lot of ball touches in the opponent's half. But that said, Salah doesn't need penalties to punish Newcastle on this day. The chances will fall for the Egyptian sooner or later, he will take care of that himself.

 

So, in a match where it is difficult to know the state of the Reds, where Newcastle are a bit weakened, and where it is Wembley we are talking about, we steer clear of marking. UB gives the small pennies 2.20 at Norsk Tipping, and could of course be worth a penny. It is far from shocking if this goes to extra time. However, with the match at Anfield fresh in our memory, and with the quality difference that there is after all, we choose a different angle. We simply recommend a goalscorer bet this Sunday. Salah will be on fire, and when the odds on him finding his way to the net now stand at 1.95, we cannot let the chance pass us by. Salah in the back, Salah with quick combinations, Salah twisting it into the far corner, and Salah from the penalty spot is enough for us. Trippier and/or Livramento will have to deal with it.

 

The alternative bet takes into account that Liverpool may concede the match on Tuesday, which results in goals against. It will most likely be Kelleher who guards the cage in the final, not that it has to mean anything, but he is still not quite in Alisson's class. Isak is on the field after all, so goals both ways are not at all unthinkable. Whatever you end up with, enjoy the first final of the year from England!

 

England at 17:30: Liverpool - Newcastle: M.Salah scores (1.95)

 

Alternative game

England at 17:30: Liverpool - Newcastle: Both teams score (1.65)