Liverpool - Manchester United 19-10-25

There are some football matches that make the world stop for a moment. Matches that are about so much more than three points and 90 minutes. You have fans who are excited, and dread, for days, and who can barely watch the match when the referee blows the whistle. Rival supporter groups who not only want their own team to win, it is almost as important that their arch-enemy loses. On Sunday we will have another such match. The two most winning teams in England are barking together, and Liverpool wants to get the train back on the rails after a couple of weak performances. What about Manchester United? Nothing would have tasted better than chastising the reigning champions on their own turf, and thus also climb a little closer to the top. This match does not hand out more points than some of the others, but it feels like it does. The feeling that there are at least ten points in the pot, and that the season stands and falls in this hour and a half is becoming more and more apparent towards the start of the match. Liverpool versus Manchester United. It doesn't get much better.

Liverpool – The season that suddenly came to an abrupt halt

Because it absolutely did. The question is why. Why did they win seven straight games, then lose three on the spur of the moment? How did they manage to pull off all these wins right from the start, right after the shock of losing a teammate had paralyzed the entire squad? And then, why did it suddenly stop, and where did all the goals go? Arne Slot probably didn't use the international break to just relax.

For Liverpool, the margins were initially on their side. The matches turned at the last minute, and all the points were red when they trudged back into the dressing rooms. It almost seemed as if it was decided that it would be that way, and the belief in the team was great. They were going to be able to turn this around before it was over. The two league losses to Crystal Palace and Chelsea in particular were worrying for the league leaders. A top of the table that they have now had to see Arsenal take over. If we look at the two losses together, there are certainly some similarities to be drawn. In particular, the aggressiveness and the ability to win the ball high up the pitch were almost absent. The contributions from the full-backs were more sporadic, the central defence looked uncertain, and important contributors up front, like Salah, had bad days at work. Slot has to figure this out quickly, because the matches are getting close, and suddenly you find yourself behind.

Another key moment for Liverpool is to find out what the preferred starting eleven is. Last year, the midfield should have much of the credit for the 20th league title coming to the city. Gravenberch, Mac Allister and Szoboszlai were the best in the league, and complemented each other almost perfectly. Now Wirtz has come in, one of the world's best footballers, and with that the problem arises. Who should actually start? Should Wirtz play out on the left? What about Gakpo? Should Ekitike start at the top when he is showing signs of good form after all, or is that place reserved for Isak? What about Salah, does he have a cut card no matter what his form tells us? The fact is that Slot has many good players available now, but perhaps not a crystal clear plan for how they will all work together. As of now, it seems almost the most obvious to place Wirtz on the bench, start with the midfield trio from last year, and let him be joined by Isak. You have to earn a starting spot, and as things stand now, everyone would probably be best served by seeing these two as substitutes somewhere after the break. Both Mac Allister and Szoboszlai scored goals during the current international break, and should have a good case for starting the important match this weekend.

At Anfield, Liverpool have begun to get a good grip on their fiercest rivals. The last two meetings have indeed ended in draws, while the two before that again contain two monumental victories, 7-0 and 4-0 respectively. They now host a team from Manchester that is struggling greatly against the other top teams, who are struggling away from home, and who under Amorim are not coherent. The occasion is great, the need for three points even greater, and the opponent might be exactly what you want? When Manchester United comes to visit, you know that the ignition level is where it should be, and that the home team is now a bit like a wounded predator that can have the desired effect. Because here the home fans will urge the team towards victory, and expectations will be sky-high. Can the twelfth man literally suck the ball in behind the opponent's goalkeeper? Liverpool needs something redeeming now.

Manchester United – Start and stop. Stop and start.

Manchester United delivers the occasional good football game. The only problem is that it is often followed by a bad one. And with that, you have to start over again, in a way, and hope that you can maybe put together a series of good performances. So far, this has not been successful, and as of now, the old powerhouse is hovering around mid-table.

Ruben Amorim. The man who is constantly in the spotlight, even if he may not want it. Because it is rare for the lights to be turned on in his direction to come with words of praise and buckets of bragging. Amorim has the lowest win percentage of all United managers in the post-war period, and seems to have problems adapting to both the player squad and English football. He stands his ground, is consistent with his ideology, and while it is storming around his ears, Manchester United is only getting worse and worse. The fact is that last year's bottom listing does not seem to be a coincidence, and that this season is just a continuation of the misery. The numbers speak for themselves, showing three defeats out of seven in the league, negative goal difference, and being knocked out by Grimsby in the League Cup. Will Amorim last until Christmas?

Manchester United spent a lot of money again in the transfer market. The entire attacking line is new, and with that one hopes that the goals will come. So far it has not worked out completely, and one is still waiting for a player like Cunha to start delivering. For United, of course, these players in themselves can be enough to raise the table position from last year, but the question is whether the team as a whole is good enough to catch up with the big ones. The highlight must be the victory over strong Chelsea. A chaotic football match, an early red card, but still, an important victory against one of the fiercest competitors. These are matches that the fans want to see more of.

The occasion could hardly be greater on Sunday. Sesko, Mbeumo and Cunha will be up against van Dijk & co, while Liverpool's attacking line will try to weave through United's defensive alibi, with Lammens in the cage. On paper, United fall short, but can they still frustrate a home team looking for the right formula, and go home with a result in their bag? Let's take a look at what we believe is the most likely scenario below.

Conclusion – There are many aspects that speak for a home win on Sunday

In terms of numbers, Liverpool are favourites. The home team are favourites on the odds, they are favourites when the two teams face each other, they are favourites from a historical perspective, and they have the advantage of playing in front of their own fans. It is the away team that will have to deliver beyond their means to get a result this weekend. But if football has taught us anything, it is this: numbers are numbers, and football is football.

We imagine a match where the home team has the ball. The play is dictated by Liverpool's centre-backs and Gravenberch, and the ball goes from side to side. United will try to be aggressive, and quickly counter-attack if the opportunity arises. We have seen in recent matches that there is space behind Liverpool's ranks, and the full-backs in particular have seemed rusty. Kerkez played well for Hungary at half-time now, and Slot will probably hope that he will bring his game into this very important match. This is precisely the position we will be following very closely, because the player who ended up in the team of the year last year has not started the season particularly well. Kerkez has probably been singled out by Amorim as a weak point.

Liverpool will try to exploit their possession advantage to create chances wide of the pitch. Both Salah and whoever gets the nod on the left will be set up repeatedly, and if they manage to play around and get in front of goal, there will be many shots. With a home team on top and a somewhat inexperienced goalkeeper for the away team, there could be many corners. Historically, we have an average of around eleven corners when these teams meet, and there is little to suggest that we will have any major deviation from this on Sunday.

The home team's players have found their way into the net with their respective national teams. In fact, Salah, Gakpo, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai and van Dijk have all been in the net for the past week, potentially injecting some much-needed confidence. With big home wins between these two powerhouses recently, belief in itself can be a factor. An early goal could set the match on fire.

For the away team, the weapon is patience. Liverpool can get bogged down, as we have seen in the last couple of weeks, and frustration can spread through the team. United have players to take advantage of the transitions they get, and on a good day the away team will come with several potential match winners. The key may turn out to be the midfield, as it often is. For the away team, it is important to move their feet quickly, and perhaps this applies especially to Casemiro. The experienced brass has lost a lot of pace in recent seasons, so here you must hope to compensate with smartness and the right positioning. The home team will probably want to come up with a dynamic midfield three with quick movements. United must be clear and direct when the chance arises.

We think it will be a win for the home team. Slot knows that only three points are good enough now in the match against Arsenal and Manchester City, and with a squad that is almost injury-free, you have a lot of cards to play with. Almost too many. If you manage to hit the balance and selection on Sunday, it will be tough for the guests. The contributions from the bench can be decisive, and here too the home team should be a horse's head ahead. We believe that the form players from the various national teams will be the deciding factor, and that all three points will remain at Anfield.

England at 17:30: Liverpool – Manchester United: Home win + Over 1.5 goals total (1.86)

Alternative game

England at 17:30: Liverpool - Manchester United: Over 9.5 corners (1.64)

England at 17:30: Liverpool - Manchester United: Both teams score + Over 2.5 goals (1.79)

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