Liverpool - Everton 02-04-25

It all has to be decided. Computers smarter than you and me have calculated that there is a 99.2% probability that Liverpool will be running around town at the end of May with their medals around their necks. The remaining 0.8% is given by Opta to Arsenal. The figures are so extremely one-sided that anything other than league trophy number 20 for the Reds from the Beatles city is a complete sporting disaster. So the stage is really set, Liverpool must deliver, and four or five wins in the last nine league games must be secured. For a team that has only one league loss so far this season, this should be more than manageable. If we are going to dig deep for any reefs in the sea, it has to be the fatal last week before the national team meeting. Liverpool fell to PSG in the world's most prestigious club tournament, and the hope of the two big buckets side by side at Anfield in the spring sun evaporated. Just days later, the favorites lost the League Cup final to Newcastle. Two nasty scrapes, and some evidence of a surplus that had disappeared. Everton awaits a duel on Wednesday, and if there is one thing the Blues would have loved, it would have been to inflict another defeat on the supreme league leaders. Because their neighbors don't have much else to play for. There is safe ground under their feet, and the season is basically saved. Under the floodlights at Anfield, there will therefore be bragging rights and a Premier League title in the pot. It guarantees an exciting football match from the ball island!

 

Liverpool – Now there is only one thing that matters

 

The season was on the verge of greatness. Arne Slot has barely made a single mistake in his first season at Liverpool. The team has played with great confidence, and when the referee blows the whistle for full time, they have generally found a way to win the game. Injuries have been few, and the core of the team has played a lot. Maybe a little too much. You have seen small glimpses of players who have seemed tired in recent weeks. Perhaps this is especially true for the season's big phenomenon, Ryan Gravenberch. A somewhat magical season as a midfield anchor, but also with a lot of minutes in his legs. The attacking players suffer a bit of the same. Luis Diaz stopped scoring goals, Darwin Nunez misses too many times, and if Salah doesn't have his day, it is often up to Gakpo to save the points. Things have been a bit mixed for the Reds.

 

In addition, these contracts are floating above the Anfield carpet. Who stays, and who goes. By all accounts, Salah and captain van Dijk will continue, while Trent will probably put on the lily-white Madrid shirt in the fall. The fans would have loved a U-turn in good old Gerrard style now, but that seems increasingly unlikely. Can Slot maneuver the ship through turbulent seas and bring the league title to port? There is a lot that will go wrong if that is not the case.

 

After all, Liverpool is by far England's best football team this season. There are match winners all over the pitch, and Salah is about to record his best season in the red shirt. The batteries should be charged again, and the injuries are not many. Yes, Trent will be missing, and that is of course a loss, but perhaps Slot can pattern an injury-free Bradley at right-back again. In that case, it will solve a lot. Otherwise, there are no injuries to mention. Liverpool have a solid course for silverware, and as of today they are a significantly better football team than Everton, in all phases of the match. Note, however, that Alisson will be checked by the protocol before he is cleared after a headbutt for Brazil.

 

Liverpool have won eleven, drawn two and lost one at home at Anfield this season. The goal difference is 31-11, and the 35 points they have collected here are one more than Everton have accumulated throughout their entire season. The last two meetings between the teams on red turf have ended 2-0. Salah has scored three of those four goals.

 

Everton – Another classic Everton season

 

It doesn't end in relegation, and it doesn't end in the top half. Everton are similar to themselves, and deliver just enough to play with the big ones next season too. Seven wins in 29 league appearances is weak, and having a negative goal difference when we write April is not good either. 13 draws tells a bit of the problem. The defensive structure is occasionally good, but there are too few offensive contributions throughout an entire season, at least when key players repeatedly suffer injuries. Calvert-Lewin and Ndiaye in top form, injury-free, throughout an entire season, would have given Everton a much greater chance of ending up in the top half. But, unfortunately, that is not the situation as of today. Injury-prone players remain injury-prone, and then Everton will have another start-and-stop season. The two mentioned are also missing on Wednesday.

 

What about motivation? Well, heading into this particular match there shouldn't be anything to complain about. It's an exciting time to face Liverpool. A couple of painful setbacks, and a slight fear that you'll stumble again. That's probably exactly what Moyes is teasing you towards kick-off. Here you're supposed to be the party stopper, and here the city will be painted blue in the days after the match. A David versus Goliath approach may be effective, but it will of course be a long way to go if you're going to stroll home through the park with three clean points in your bag this time.

 

Everton have won three of their 14 away games in this year's Premier League. However, their form over the last couple of months has been good, without them having faced the big teams. Many draws, but also some nice wins. The match between the two Liverpool teams a month and a half ago ended in a draw, fittingly. Liverpool were the leading team, but Tarkowski became the hero eight minutes into extra time, with his 2-2 score.

 

Conclusion – What is Liverpool's mental state?

 

Perhaps the most crucial point heading into the match, how is the Reds' top flight? Are the defeats in the Champions League and at Wembley over? Have they managed to change their focus, and is it considered good enough if they "just" win the league? If their heads are in place, I think this will end with a home win. Everton will lie low, fight for every metre, and give as much beating as they are allowed. However, I think Liverpool's legs are tingling to get the old lady up now. Much is forgotten if they sweep Everton off the track, and set a steady course towards the league title. It doesn't take many of these three points before they can pop the bubbles, and I think this certainty provides the necessary security. The shoulders don't need to be particularly high, the distance down to Arsenal is simply too great.

 

The last match between Everton and Liverpool at Goodison ended 2-2 in February, and the last three games at Anfield have ended 2-0 to the home team. It doesn't seem to be a particularly surprising result this time either, all the while Salah is chasing new heights, while the Reds' midfield has been given some much-needed rest. The surplus should be there, and with Gakpo once again available on the left, the home team has several strings to play on. I wonder if Slot doesn't choose to bench the two guys from South America, and field the aforementioned Gakpo alongside Jota and Salah. Curtis Jones would probably love to start this one, but for fear of complete over-excitation, the smart choice would probably be to give Gravenberch, Szoboszlai and Mac Allister the nod. Either way, the favorite stamp is safely placed on the home team.

 

We are aligning ourselves with the latest matches at Anfield, and predict a Liverpool victory by more than one goal. A certain Egyptian loves to meet the blue neighbors, and not disregard a goal or two from that side. Haaland is in all likelihood finished for the season, and Salah can with a little luck write his name in gold in the record books in just under two months as the all-time top scorer. Derby is derby, though, so be on the lookout for good bets in terms of cards and corners. There are usually friendly conditions in the stands, but not necessarily down on the grass.

 

England at 21:00: Liverpool - Everton: Liverpool - 1.5 goals (2.00)

 

Alternative game

England at 21:00: Liverpool - Everton: Salah scores (1.80)