Liverpool - Arsenal 31/08/2025

The title fight starts now - only one can set the standard!

Already in the third round of the league we get a match that could set the tone for the entire season. Liverpool against Arsenal. Two teams that are both predicted to fight at the very top, and who have shown in recent seasons that the margins are small when these teams meet. This is not just three points – this is an early statement about who actually has the most to offer in this year's title fight.

Liverpool

Last year's superb winner of the league ahead of today's opponent is not going to make it easier for the teams behind this season either. Players like Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitike, Jeremie Frimpong, Milos Kerkez and Leoni Giovanni have arrived in the doors, while they have also got rid of Darwin Nunez, Luiz Diaz and of course the tragic passing of Diego Jota. But it shows that the Merseyside team really means business this season as well, and it will not be easy to beat the reigning champions this year either.

But what is perhaps a little different in this Liverpool team than before is a bit of the same problem you had when playing the manager game CM (Championship Manager) later called FM (Football Manager). With a bit too many new signings at the same time, it could often result in a bit of strange results at the start until the chemistry had settled properly, and I feel that is a bit of what we are seeing now in the two games Liverpool have played. They beat Bournemouth (4-2) in the series opener at home at Anfield, and against Newcastle on Monday night everything looked rosy when Gravenberch sent the Reds into the lead when the game clock showed 35 minutes, and just before half-time when the home team's Anthony Gordon received a straight red card, I was almost on my way into the dugout to find a bullet frame, because here it could really be a party of numbers now.

Right after the break Hugo Ekitike made it 0-2 and I was sure that this would be a lead-heavy evening for the boys in black and white. But instead Newcastle managed to regain the two-goal lead and we actually had to go all the way to 90+10 before the decision was made, when 16-year-old Rio Ngumoha suddenly stood unmarked inside the box and widened the winning goal as if he had never done anything else.

Yes, they have the full pot in terms of points, but with an Xg of 2.98 for and 3.54 against and a goal difference of 7-4, it shows a Liverpool team that overperforms in front of the opponent's goal, while being much more open at the back of the field, and I think that until they get this sorted out, they will be vulnerable when they face slightly better opposition than what has been the case so far. I'm not saying that Newcastle are a bad team, but when Isak is out and you get a whole half with one more man, it's strange to look at the statistics from the match that Newcastle were the better team. 0.98 in Xg against Liverpool's 0.69, 7-1 in corners in favor of the home team and 4-2 in big chances, shows that with so many offensive players on the field at the same time, it is very open for the opponents.

Arsenal

Is this the year that the team from the capital will finally succeed?

Last year's season where they fought against Liverpool was really decided when injuries came in droves. Ødegaard, Saka, White, Timber, Havertz and Gabriel all had to watch a good number of games from the stands and I seriously believe that this was a direct reason why Liverpool got the small lead they needed to secure the title. There has been constant talk that if Arsenal just get a striker in place, they will be serious contenders for Premier League gold.

When they brought in Andrea Berta at the end of March, it became a little more positive that Arsenal could finally get the long-awaited striker they all dreamed of. But when you sit here at the end of August and look at the players who have come through the doors at the Emirates, you almost can't believe your eyes, because it seems like there has been a plan to strengthen the entire squad ahead of this season, and not just bring in a striker. They have brought in Kepa as a reserve goalkeeper behind Raya. Also in are Zubimendi, Norgaard, Madueke, Mosquera, Gyökeres and the latest in goal Eberechi Eze from Crystal Palace. So this shows that Arteta wants a wider squad so that any injuries would not put an end to a long season this year as well.

And talk about "getting put to the test" right away, because in the home game against Leeds last weekend we saw Ødegaard (shoulder) and Saka (hamstring) both leave the field in the 5-0 victory, and then you understand why Arteta wanted more than just a striker in his squad.

Arsenal opened the series with a strong 0-1 win away at Old Trafford before sweeping Leeds 5-0 at home at the Emirates, and there's something rock solid about this Arsenal side that I haven't seen before. Yes, you could say that beating United, who don't look like anything yet, or crushing Leeds at home on their own turf is something you can only demand if you're going to be in the top flight, but the problem with Arsenal in recent years is that they've rarely done just that. They've struggled against teams that come from behind and it's mostly ended in one-goal wins at the end of games, so maybe this side can give the starving supporters something to cheer about again?

"Gyökeres – the machine in front of the goal"

The man who carries much of the offensive responsibility for the visitors comes from two adventurous seasons at Sporting Lisbon where he scored a total of 68 goals in 66 games for the team from Portugal. He was brought in as the long-awaited number 9 at Arsenal, and although I was not entirely impressed after his debut against United, I think he gives the team a whole new dimension up front, he is fierce in duels, he ties up at least one if not two defenders with his mobility and speed, and he just loves to score goals. He is almost a bit like Haaland at City, I feel.

But in today's football, players are not brought in if they do not also have the right numbers/statistics, because in the technological age we now find ourselves in, everything can be documented down to the smallest detail, and even though Gyökeres has crazy numbers in front of goal, I am convinced that he was also brought in to give Arsenal something more in their offensive game. I checked the OPTA statistics after the Leeds match and there you could see how Gyökeres is doing right up there: 11.67 km run, 22 sprints, 324 intensive runs, 40 runs without the ball and a top speed of 34.5 km/h. Then you suddenly see that here they have brought in a player who will contribute with more than just goals. He will be able to stretch the opponent both lengthwise and widthwise with his enormous mobility, which will be able to give space to the more creative players of Arsenal, at the same time as he will be a constant source of unrest inside the box due to his enormous physique.

When we look at the hard facts so far, we see that Arsenal have a 4.07 goal difference for and 1.53 goal difference against, and with a 6-0 record, it shows a team that is solid defensively and has been paid a little too well offensively, but it is good to have them in the doors at the most difficult away ground you will find in the Premier League. Not many have come away from Anfield with anything positive in recent years, but for Arsenal it has not looked completely terrible, fortunately.

Conclusion

We actually have to go all the way back to 2021 to find the last time Liverpool won this match in the series and both the matches at Anfield and the Emirates last year both ended 2-2. So this is evidence of two teams where there is extremely little difference, and where margins could possibly decide one way or the other.

England at 17:30: Liverpool – Arsenal: Arsenal or draw (1.74)

Alternative games:

Arsenal over 1 team goal asian (1.77)

Under 9.5 corners (1.88)