Las Palmas - Valencia 03-05-2025

The match between Las Palmas and Valencia on Saturday represents a crucial stage in La Liga's relegation battle. Las Palmas are desperately fighting to secure a new contract, while Valencia are coming into the match with greater confidence after a positive spring season. The clash at the Estadio de Gran Canaria could have major consequences for both clubs, although the pressure is far heavier on the home team.

Las Palmas – a season in waves

Las Palmas have actually had the upper hand in previous meetings with Valencia this season. They won 2-0 in February 2024, and back in 2018 they won 2-1. This gives them a mental edge ahead of Saturday's game and could be a motivational factor in their quest for three vital points. Spanish sports website AS also reports that coach Martínez Penas has used these victories as inspiration in his squad's preparations. They have only played three games against each other in the 2018/2019 and 2019/2020 seasons, and must go back to the 2018 season to find their last meeting in La Liga before Las Palmas were relegated to the Segunda División.

After a promising autumn and strong results against several top clubs, Las Palmas have fallen back into a negative form curve. Martínez's team has only two wins in the last ten games and is currently below the line with 32 points. It is primarily a weak defensive structure that has been decisive - the team has conceded 53 goals, the second most among the teams at the bottom. At the same time, Fábio Silva has been noticeable in attack. The Portuguese has 10 goals and 3 assists in 24 games, and his return to Wolverhampton in June after the loan agreement expires will be another loss for Las Palmas. Midfielder Javi Muñoz is back after quarantine and provides important balance in the middle. It is also worth noting that Muñoz is rumored to be at Valencia next season, which adds an extra dimension to the match.

Valencia – from crisis to security

Valencia have experienced a season with two very different phases. Under Rubén Baraja, the club was near the bottom, but the change of coach to Carlos Corberán in December was a turning point. In the 16 games under his leadership, the team has collected an impressive 27 points – almost double what they took in the first 18. Valencia now has 39 points, seven points ahead of Las Palmas, and is looking to secure another season in La Liga. They have found better structure in both defense and attack, where players like Hugo Duro and Javier Guerra have been central. Duro has scored 8 goals, Diego López 7 goals. It is not impressive so far, and both seem a bit shaky and inconsistent in away games. Goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili has saved the team on several occasions with his strong reaction ability and composure on the ball. He will be important on away pitches, and can prevent the team from conceding goals.

Conclusion – Goal drought

Las Palmas will most likely play with high energy and attacking pressure, especially in the opening stages of the match. They will need to take the initiative and chase goals early. Valencia, on the other hand, may play more wait-and-see, but have several players who can exploit transition opportunities. Corberán is known for organizing the team well defensively and punishing mistakes – something Las Palmas will need to watch out for.

On both sides, there are no significant changes in defense at the time of writing.

So this match has all the ingredients for a dramatic and emotional match. For Las Palmas, it's all about survival - and with the home fans behind them, key players back and a favourable statistical base, this is a must-win match. Valencia have less pressure, but with their current form and better structure they could easily end up as a party stopper for the home team, and they can live with a draw thanks to a better defence.

The temperature is rising in Spain now. The match is played in the afternoon and the pace of the match could quickly slow down if the score remains zero-zero at halftime.

Both teams have conceded a lot of goals, but are struggling to score. That's why we are going for too few goals in the match. Valencia are also not comfortable at Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, and Las Palmas lack self-confidence ahead of this match. A hard-fought match with a result of 1–0 or 0–1 could easily be the outcome for one of the teams. 0–0 or 1–1 and a point split is an alternative suggestion.

Spain at: 18:30: Las Palmas - Valencia: Under 2.5 goals (1.78)

Alternative game:

Spain at: 18:30: Las Palmas – Valencia: Draw (3.45)