Las Palmas - Leganés 18-05-2025

The winner can survive – but only if Alavés stumbles. Who is betting the most?

When Las Palmas and Leganés meet in the penultimate round of the 2024/2025 La Liga, it will be with their backs pressed right up against the wall. The two bottom teams are in 18th and 19th place respectively with 34 and 32 points, and both MUST win to have any hope of avoiding relegation. But that's not enough, they also depend on Alavés, who have 38 points, dropping points away to Valladolid. Leganés can also save themselves if Getafe or Espanyol stumble in their last two games. This makes this match a mental and physical discharge – where everything must be sacrificed, but where fate ultimately lies in the hands of others.

Las Palmas

After a promising start to the season, Las Palmas have completely collapsed. Their form in recent weeks has been weak, and the home team now has only two wins in their last 10 games. Goal production has been a problem at times - 40 goals in 36 games, and at home they have only scored more than one goal in two of the last ten games.

Coach Diego Martinez has experimented with different formations, but regardless of the formation, the team has struggled to create clear-cut chances. Loaned player Fabio Silva is the top scorer with 10 goals, but he is out with injury himself, so now the only threat is Sandro Ramirez with his 9 goals. The contributions from the rest of the squad have been far from consistent. Nevertheless, there is faith in Gran Canaria, there have been many shots on goal, but the team still has a touch of control: if they win their next two games, and Alavés lose their last two by a few goals, then there is hope for another La Liga season.

Leganes

It looks dark for Leganés too, who with their 30 points not only have to win – they also have to hope that one of the teams with 38-39 points loses their last two. That means a win here is necessary, but not necessarily sufficient. The team has been in a difficult period all spring, and defensively it has unraveled in several games – especially on the road. 30 of their 58 goals have come from outside their own turf.

Coach Borja Jiménez will probably have to sacrifice the usual 5-3-2 formation in favor of something more offensive. Daniel Raba and Juan Cruz are the offensive mainstays, but they need support from the back to create enough chances. The midfield has been too passive for much of the season, and that is not enough when you need three points and hope for a miracle.

One possible hope for Leganés is that they will take some of the pressure off. They are already down unless something extraordinary happens – and that could give them the freedom to play without fear.

All or nothing – and still not entirely in your own hands

This match MUST be won by both sides. A draw is worthless – and if Alavés is not leading in their match, desperation could spread to Gran Canaria. This means that, especially after the break, this could be a fiercely open match. We could see a match that starts off controlled and nervous, but explodes in the second half, when the teams have to throw everything forward.

Las Palmas and Leganés go into the match with one common destiny: victory or relegation. Neither team can survive with a draw, and both are at the mercy of Alavés not winning their match. This sets the stage for a desperate and open duel where everything must go, and the risks will increase as the match progresses. When no one has anything to lose – but everything to gain – it is set for an intense, high-stakes match with high drama. The goal total can quickly be higher than normal, and late-game drama is almost guaranteed. That is why we believe that there is very good value in these bets;

La Liga at 19:00: Las Palmas - Leganés: Over 2.5 goals (1.82)

Alternative games:

La Liga at 19:00: Las Palmas - Leganés: Both teams to score - Yes (1.68)

La Liga at 19:00: Las Palmas - Leganés: Half with most goals: second half (2.09)

Las Palmas have tended to be at their best after the break. With a nervous first half and more openness throughout, this could provide high value:

La Liga at 19:00: Las Palmas – Leganés: Draw at half-time + away win (6.20)