Jessica Pegula – Madison Keys

The Australian Open is the story that is written while the rest of the world sleeps. Here, on the blue hard court, where dreams can be lifted or shattered in a matter of hours, two of the world's best tennis players – Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys – meet.

Both have gone through the first week without dropping a set, both have found their rhythm, and both are ready to take the leap from hope to reality. This is one of those matches that reminds us why we love tennis: two established top players, two different paths to the top – and margins so small they can barely be measured.

Pegula – rhythm, control and tempo

Jessica Pegula has a history of going deep in the Australian Open, before the last two seasons ended with early exits. This year, however, she seems to have found her confidence back in her game. She has been rock solid in the first week, and has been a threat both on her own serve and in the return game. Pegula's ability to control the pace of duels is often underestimated, and this is where she can gain an important advantage.

At the same time, her serve is not the most poisonous on the tour, and if she becomes too predictable from the baseline, Keys could be given the opportunity to dictate more. The key for Pegula will be to vary her shots more and break her opponent's rhythm - if she succeeds in that, she can put Keys under constant pressure.

Keys – power, risk and impact

Madison Keys, like Pegula, has been very solid in Melbourne, although she has had brief periods where her play has fallen a bit below par. She leads 2-1 in the head-to-head against Pegula, and her only loss of the year came against a dominant Aryna Sabalenka. So the reigning champion is in form.

Keys thrives on aggression, flat and hard groundstrokes and a serve pressure that can knock down most players. At the same time, there is always a risk in her game: when the timing is a little off, the errors come quickly. To win this match, she must attack Pegula's somewhat weaker serve consistently, maintain a high level on her own first serve and keep unpressed errors to a minimum.

Summary and betting suggestions

Everything points to an even and long showdown between the world numbers 6 and 9. Mutual statistics, form curves and playing styles indicate small margins, and the last time they met in Adelaide last year, there were a total of 26 games. It is therefore difficult to imagine a short and one-sided showdown here.

Pegula may seem a bit more stable at the bottom, while Keys has the highest top level – and it is precisely in the span between control and risk that the nerve of the match lies. This could quickly become a three-setter, as the bookmakers' odds do not reflect the balance of power, in our eyes. We therefore try the following bets;

Tennis at 01:30: Jessica Pegula - Madison Keys: Over 20.5 games (1.68)