Jannik Sinner – Jesper de Jong 12-05-2025

Can De Jong surprise Sinner on home soil?

Jannik Sinner will face Jesper de Jong in the third round of the ATP Rome. Sinner is back after a three-month break and won his previous match against Mariano Navone 6–3, 6–4. De Jong, who entered the tournament as an underdog, has impressed with victories over Alexander Shevchenko and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, the latter with scores of 6–0, 6–2. 

Jannik Sinner

Sinner, world number one and home favorite, has had an impressive season, including victory at the 2024 Australian Open. After a three-month break, he is back and showing solid form. He has previously met De Jong once, at the 2024 Australian Open, where he won comfortably 6–2, 6–2, 6–2. 

Jesper de Jong

De Jong, ranked 93rd in the world, has had a strong start in Rome. He came in as a surprise and has picked up impressive wins over Shevchenko and Davidovich Fokina. He has shown solid play on clay and will be motivated to challenge Sinner.  

Does Sinner dominate so early that the match barely has time to start?

Sinner is the favorite, but De Jong has shown that he can surprise. With Sinner's recent break and De Jong's form, the match could be more even than expected. Sinner will likely try to dominate from the baseline, while De Jong will try to exploit any rusty moments in Sinner. 

For Sinner, this is more than just a tournament, it is the first time he has played in Rome as world number one, and with that comes enormous expectations from the home crowd. That gives motivation, but also pressure. In his opening match against Navone, he looked a little rusty at times, but not unexpectedly after three months out. He played solidly, but not impressively. De Jong, for his part, comes to the match with fighting form and self-confidence. After losing in qualifying, he got his chance as a lucky loser and has taken it to the fullest. The 6–0, 6–2 win over Davidovich Fokina, a real clay-court specialist, was especially impressive.

Still, it's important not to over-interpret one match. De Jong has played a lot at the Challenger level and lacks experience from the big stages. He has 6 wins at the ATP level in all of 2024–2025 combined, and now faces not only the world number one, but also one of the most complete players on the tour. Sinner is 24–3 on clay over the past 12 months and has won 7 of his last 10 wins against players outside the top 50 with fewer than 20 games total.

De Jong's strong serve and good forehand can give him some comfortable serve games, but he will have to constantly overperform to avoid being broken. In terms of match play, it is expected that Sinner will take the initiative, pick up the pace in the duels and put De Jong on the run. If the Italian gets an early lead, there is little indication that the Dutchman has what it takes to turn the match around.

Due to Sinner's previous win over De Jong and his ability to dominate matches, it is likely that the match will have few games. Sinner has previously shown that he can finish matches quickly against lower ranked players. Therefore, we are running this bet;

ATP Rome at 15:00: Jannik Sinner – Jesper de Jong: Under 19.5 games (1.87)

Alternative games:

ATP Rome at 15:00: Jannik Sinner – Jesper de Jong: Under 9.5 games in the first set (1.67)