Italy – Norway 16-11-25

"Free to be Solskjær!" You run around the bumpy patch of grass with your friends and dream of the big games. The goals are made of various jackets and little Per's nice sweater that he has promised on his honor not to get dirty. The game is intense, everyone wants the ball, and in the end there are some who cry. It's always like that. It's probably like that when you grow up too, and the games mean even more. Not that you can grasp and understand that the games can mean more than what they do right here and now. Again, it's Erling who scores the most goals. Erling is always a horse's head ahead of the others. It's terribly annoying, well, if you're not on his team then! You end the day, it's lunchtime anyway, and it's high time to stroll home. Per picks up one of the goal posts and puts it over his head. Sure enough, full of greenery. Wasn't this the one that was supposed to be used for tomorrow's birthday? Little Per chooses the long route home. For Erling, the story is quite different. In a way, the dreams seem a little closer for the tall, blond man. He cycles home, feels the fresh autumn air, and thinks about what it must be like to shoulder the beautiful national team jersey. Imagine only being able to do it once! To be the man who scores the decisive goal and thus ensures that people explode with joy. Erling is met by his dad at the door. Dad, yes, he made it happen, then at least I will be able to do it too!

Italy – Here, but no further

Because Italy is not Italy anymore, are they? The biggest profiles are gone. The notorious goal scorers with the great Italian names are nowhere to be seen, and the elegant midfielders with long flowing hair are nowhere to be found. Italy had it all. Everything from sloppy guys with a flair for goal, to stalwarts in defense. If you faced Italy, you knew that the chances were few, the bruises were many, and the threats against them were frightening. We don't need to start listing all the big names, but the fact is that the Italian national team is in an ever-so-small trough. 10-20 years ago, Italian football was right up there, both at national level and for club teams. AC Milan and Juventus, yes, maybe also Inter, made up the azure blues, and they were the best in their field. They knew everything, and few defenses in the world could compare to the tacticians from the boot country. It's fascinating to think about how the hard-nosed defensive orientation was so strong, while at the same time you had guys like Pirlo playing football. Terribly difficult to relate to, and rarely a place you wanted to go to play for the national team. Now it's different.

Because Italy are not as good anymore. This World Cup qualification has shown it. Yes, they are on a shooting guard, but the match against Norway in Ullevål in particular was critical for the victorious Italians. With ugly figures they had to go home, knowing full well that the match ball was now in the hands of the Vikings. Norway has not let up since, and Italy has been holding on to the points afterwards. The away match against Israel in particular was worrying. A match they should have won easily swung back and forth quite violently, before they were somewhat lucky to end up with a 5-4 victory. And not only that, they were about to do something big on Thursday night against Moldova. Little Moldova, who lost 1-11 to Norway, almost had the run out against the Italians, and only two minutes before full time they ended up behind. No, this Italian national team is not like itself.

Italy must beat Norway by nine goals on Sunday to take first place in the group. Second place and further qualification opportunities are already secured. It will be very interesting to see how they attack this match, because hope is so definitely gone now. Will they be able to stand up to it and deliver a rock-solid match, or will it be a beaten national team that faces Norway. We may be leaning more towards the latter.

Norway – Finally it would succeed!

Because Norway is going to the World Cup in 2026. Finally we are there. There have been many missed chances along the way, but now we are past the stage where it can work out. Yes, we can lose in isolation in Italy, but not by nine goals. I am not so sure that we will lose at all. Because don't we see a national team now that can withstand a little more? They are a little more stable, and a little more calm in the crucial situations. Having some of the top scorers in the world must create a certain self-confidence within the squad, one would think. As of now, this is Erling's national team.

For Jærbuen has never been better. He says it himself that he has never been as old as he is now, and it is true, experience has only made him better and better. He never goes offside, he stays away from unfortunate situations on the field, and he seems to have an absolutely insane belief in himself. He has every reason to be.

But it is no longer just this one profile that makes Norway good. Sander Berge shines with the flag on his chest, Nusa is a sensation, at least at Ullevål, Bobb has the international cut, while both Sørloth, Ryerson and Berg are solid national team players. And we haven't even mentioned the national team captain. No, Norway is much better shot now, and the way it looks as of today, this group definitely has something to do in a World Cup. Haaland is suddenly the World Cup's biggest profile, and you have a feeling that the giant can shoot Norway into a quarter-final on his own. It could be a lot of fun next summer!

The match against Italy is about staying the course. I don't think you need to mention that for this group. Here you go to the homeland of pasta to finish what you've started, and to really put your wardrobe in order. The odds show that Italy are pretty dominant favorites in this top match, but doesn't that seem a bit strange? Yes, Italy are good at home, at least they have been, but there are definitely opportunities here. We must not forget that we beat this team 3-0 a few months ago, nor that Israel put four balls past Donnarumma earlier this fall. Italy seems to be more vulnerable than before, and if hope and effort disappear, a certain fair-haired Viking can make life miserable for the Blues.

Conclusion – A match without meaning

A truth with certain modifications. The match obviously means something for the honor and for the flow towards a championship. Norway probably wants to complete a qualification without a single mistake. It will send a real signal around the football world, if you actually go to Italy and win. 24 out of 24 points and at least 30 plus goals. In a group with Italy. Yes, this will be heard.

For Italy, it's about self-image and professional pride. Because this wasn't how it was supposed to go. They got a very nice group, and were big favorites. Norway was on the way to something, but strictly speaking nothing compared to the experienced Italians. The match at Ullevål was a real awakening, and this change in reality probably left a fairly deep mark. Italy must try to get out of this with some of its honor intact.

Isn't this a game that Norway can win then? We think so. Norway can play with low shoulders, they can play with loads of self-confidence, and they play with the world's best striker at the top. Guess if this man wants to bring down the old greats on his own turf then! If Italy is not able to stay sharp and sharp throughout these 90 minutes, Norway will have big chances. We have seen it before this fall, Italy is not as solid at the back. Norway will have opportunities, and there is something that leans towards Ståle's men being chopped too big on Sunday.

One last point is the FIFA ranking. Norway is currently number 29 in the world rankings, and this will have something to do with the group stage in the World Cup. Beating Italy, on home turf, could send Norway up the ladder. Whether it helps in terms of ranking in the World Cup is still uncertain, but it doesn't hurt. Both Canada and Ukraine are right in front of the Norwegian national team, and will quickly be eaten up with three points in Italy. Norway has to go for it now, and that's why we land on a recommended bet in that direction. The away odds are so high that here we can throw in a half-guard, and still get a very nice alternative. There is much to say about Norwegian cheers on Sunday evening.

World Cup qualification at 20:45: Italy – Norway: X2 (1.81)

Alternative bet
World Cup qualification at 20:45: Italy – Norway: Over 2.5 goals (1.73)