Hoffenheim - Stuttgart 23-02-2025

Hoffenheim will be looking to build on last weekend's strong away win against Werder Bremen when they host Stuttgart at the PreZero Arena on Sunday night. The hosts are fighting to stay out of the relegation zone, while Stuttgart are chasing European football. Hoffenheim have proven to be unpredictable of late – they held Eintracht Frankfurt to a draw, but collapsed completely in a 0-4 defeat to Union Berlin. With the second most goals conceded in the league, they face a Stuttgart team that is among the highest scorers in the Bundesliga. If Hoffenheim are having one of their better days, this could be a close and unpredictable match for both teams, but if they are having a bad day, it could quickly turn into ugly numbers.

Hoffenheim – the team that needs a home comeback

Christian Ilzer's side got a much-needed boost in the last round when they beat Werder Bremen 3-1 away from home. It was Hoffenheim's fifth win of the season and they have now scored 15 goals in their last seven games - as many as they netted in the previous 18. However, they still find themselves in a precarious position in 15th place, just one place above the relegation zone. They do, however, have a seven-point gap to Heidenheim, who currently occupy 16th place.

However, home form is a big problem for Die Kraichgauer. They have not won in their last seven home matches (all competitions) and have lost four of their last five on home turf. This gives cause for concern ahead of the meeting with a Stuttgart team that has been strong away from home this season. Hoffenheim are still hit by injuries, especially in midfield, where Samassekou, Prömel and Tohumcu are unavailable. This means that Stach and Becker will likely start centrally. In defence, they will probably have to rely on Chaves and Østigård, as Lenz, Kabak and Gendrey are out. In attack, an attacking trio of Bischof, Kramaric and Bülter is expected – a trio that has shown sparkling synergy at times and was absolutely central in the away win against Werder Bremen. In addition, we may see the speedy Orban at the top again, if not from the start, then as the match progresses. Hložek and Bebou are not available, which are clearly two big misses.

Stuttgart – a team that can't find its rhythm

Stuttgart have had a good season but have stumbled recently. After opening 2024 with four straight wins, the team has now lost four of its last six matches (all competitions), including a 2-1 defeat to Wolfsburg last time out. Despite this, Die Roten are still in the fight for the Champions League places. They are in 7th place, four points behind fourth-placed Freiburg, but have one game in hand. A win on Sunday could send them back into the fight for a top-four finish. Stuttgart have proven strong on foreign turf this season, with five wins in their last six away games. However, the team has had defensive problems of late, with only one match without a goal in the last seven. They have conceded 12 goals in that period, which could give Hoffenheim hope of capitalising on the home team's attacking form.

Stuttgart will have to do without Al Dakhil and Zagadou, both out for several weeks. This means Chabot and Hendriks could get a chance in central defence. Up top, Undav and Woltemade are expected to lead the attack, while Touré is close to a comeback but is unlikely to be ready until March.

The weekend will probably be rounded off with a goal-rich match

I dare to go out on the offensive here and say that there will be goals here. In Hoffenheim's last 5 (all tournaments) all matches have ended with over 2.5 goals. Stuttgart is just behind with over 2.5 goals in the last 4 of 5 matches (all tournaments). It was 1-1 in the autumn between these, but the uneven form of both teams lately makes me lean more towards goal bets here. But an important statistic, even if it goes on historical grounds, is that five of the last ten matches between these teams have ended with a point split. In other words, it is more even between these than you might think, and marking games are scary here. Stuttgart have also been dangerous in this match in recent years, with 19 goals in the last ten meetings. However, Hoffenheim has struggled defensively this season, with 45 goals conceded in 22 matches - second most in the league. Stuttgart, on the other hand, have been among the better attacking teams, with 40 goals scored so far, a feat only four teams have surpassed. And with that mix, we'll take a look at the following games first:

• Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.48. In other words, the bookmakers are on the same page and expect goals here. Therefore, I look further at the combination with BTS instead, as I imagine goals at both ends. Both teams are with BTS in 68% of the matches this season, and the last 4 of 5 matches have ended with BTS. BTS + over 2.5 goals we get at 1.70 and it is quite nice and highly relevant as a main bet. Stuttgart is with BTS + over 2.5 goals in 64% of the matches this season, while for Hoffenheim the same has happened in 55% of the matches. History is also in the game's favor here: the last 5 of 7 matches between these have ended with BTS + over 2.5 goals.
• There were 5 yellow cards in the previous match between these teams. And Stuttgart has not been very disciplined this season, especially on the away field. Here they average 3.10 yellow cards per game. In their last 5 Bundesliga matches they have received 2 yellow cards or more in each match. We actually get over 1.5 cards here at 1.58 which is a good bet and very likely considering their statistics and playing style. If you take the away statistics well under your arm and go for over 2.5 cards to Stuttgart, you get odds of 2.80. It is not at all unlikely as I see it and worth a try, albeit with a lower stake. Hoffenheim is generally a disciplined team, but has shown worse tactics on that front lately. In their last 4 matches there have been two yellow cards or more in each match, we have to go back to the away win against Holstein Kiel on January 18th the last time there was one card. With this cleared up, and in what could be an open and physically tough match, you can look at cards in total. Over 3.5 cards in the match are available at 1.54, while over 4.5 cards are available at 2.15. Here I personally make an assessment after the first 10-15 minutes and throw in live bets. But Stuttgart with over 2.5 cards is the high odds of the weekend for me, which is entered before the match starts.

Despite Hoffenheim getting an important win last time out, their home record has been disappointing this season. Stuttgart have impressed away from home, but their lack of form and defensive vulnerabilities make this an open game. Stuttgart will be favourites based on their performance this season, but Hoffenheim have shown that they have goals in them. With both teams' defensive problems, this could be a goal-rich game. I mostly believe in an open game that can go either way, so it is seen as most appropriate to go for goal play and ignore marking. The main game will be:

Germany at 19:30: Hoffenheim – Stuttgart: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (1.70) 

Alternative game:

Germany at 19:30: Hoffenheim – Stuttgart: Over 4.5 cards in total in the match (2.15)