HJK – NSI Runarvik 17-07-2025

While horse hooves in the forest, linnets returning from migration and goslings on the willow are sure signs of spring, qualifying matches in the CL, EL and Conference League between teams you have barely heard of are sure signs that football in the big leagues is just around the corner.

And today we have picked the match that perhaps woke us up the most last week; namely the match between HJK and NSI Runarvik. The Finns went to the Faroe Islands to lay the foundation for advancement, but came home with shocking figures. And such a starting point gives us oddsmakers many exciting opportunities.

HJK – attack is the best defense

No team is bigger than HJK in Finland. With 33 league titles, and 14 second places, it is miles ahead of the next team in that table. To show how big HJK actually is, we can mention that number 2 in the same table has nine league titles. That's how big HJK is, and how surprising it was that they may be about to stumble over little Runarvik.

But after four straight league championships, last year's third place was a disappointment. And this year's 4th place has made the Helsinki press find the war types. But after 0-2 away against VPS last time, and 7 points up to 1st place, there is no reason to capitulate. HJK should be among the top, as well as representing Finland in Europe, and hope is alive. Both at home and in the Conference League.

However, we cannot ignore the fact that the task is enormous. But after the 11-11 draw last week, HJK should be a lot better than NSI Runarvik. And the team's top scorer; Temu Pukki, knows that they have to fly out of the starting block if there is to be any hope. And although hope is a dangerous thing, hope is also the last thing to die, and with 32 goals in 15 games this year, hope should live on.

In addition, one finds solace in the statistics. For one thing, they score over 2 goals on average at home, but they are also the team with the most "shots on target" in the domestic series, with their 6.27 per game. And only Inter Turku and Ilves finish more often than HJK. And if you look at xG, they average 1.85 per game. Impressive. And these are the numbers they must cling to when they now need at least four goals to have any hope of further E-cup play.

NSI Runarvik – giant killers

Although NSI Runarvik are currently in second place in the Betri Deildin, they are no giant. Not even on a national scale. Because you have to go back to 2007 to find the only time they won their domestic league, and beyond that they only have four second places to show for it. Now, league football was not played in 1944, due to a shortage of footballs during the British occupation, but one win, and four second places since 1942 scares no one. And it is also worth mentioning that the surprising victory last week was only the fourth victory in Europe in 31 attempts.

And that's exactly why few would have imagined that HJK would return home from the Faroe Islands and almost be out of the Conference League before the tournament had even started. But 4-0 doesn't tell the whole story. After 22 minutes, midfielder Kallinen was shown a red card, and HJK played with one man less for over an hour. It was 1-0 before the red card came, but after 90 minutes, possession was fairly evenly distributed.

But the win against HJK is part of a series of good games this year for NSI Runarvik. They are 11-2-3, and have scored an impressive 64 goals in 16 games. The gap to Klaksvik is too big, but they are the best of the rest. But it is interesting to see that even though the league is fairly split, and of course a lot of goals are scored, they have conceded 21 goals in this year's 16 games. And most recently, against table giants TB Tvøroyri, they conceded two goals. And that against a team that has only scored 14 goals in their 16 games. So something tells me that HJK should have good chances to score some goals.

Conclusion – a home team that needs to attack

4-0 from the first match gives us, as mentioned, many exciting opportunities. But there are also some possible pitfalls here. For how long will HJK press on, if the goals don't come, before they give up? And can uncritical attacking play be punished in the form of counter-goals against? Of course. It can happen. But first of all; a critical home crowd at the mighty Bolt Arena will not allow HJK not to try until the referee blows the final whistle. And we think NSI Runarvik will be reasonably low, as they know that they can withstand one, two and three against.

But if the goals are delayed, both doubt and frustration will creep in for the home team, and self-confidence will increase for the away team. And these are things we have to take into account when choosing our bets. But we are reasonably confident that HJK will control the game, both from the start, but also after the first goals are scored, and that the away team will hope to frustrate their opponents enough for the game to end with sufficient numbers.

To us, it doesn't seem like the bookmakers have taken sufficient account of the fact that the match was evenly matched in the end, despite the early red card, as well as the difference in level between the teams, and therefore we are going for a safer variant as the main bet, and a little more risk in the alternative bets;

Conference League at 18:00: HJK – NSI Runarvik: HJK -1 Asian handicap (1.77)

Alternative games:

Conference League at 18:00: HJK – NSI Runarvik: Over 5.5 corners to HJK (1.84)

Conference League at 18:00: HJK – NSI Runarvik: HJK -1.5 goals (2.25)

Conference League at 18:00: HJK – NSI Runarvik: Over 3.5 goals (2.40)