Heidenheim - Bayern Munich

A brave Heidenheim, once again struggling at the bottom of the Bundesliga, host Bayern Munich in the last match of the round before the winter break in Germany. Bayern Munich, as expected, have dominated this season. They roll over most opposition on their good days, but also show vulnerability at the back. They stumbled last weekend at home against Mainz 05, but that doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. There is little hope left for Heidenheim here and Bayern Munich are constantly involved in goal-rich matches – the last match of the round could easily be a treat!

Heidenheim – new season with fight for survival

Heidenheim barely made it last season and never strengthened enough to be able to defend that the story would be different this season. The squad is varied with some experience and some talent, but not enough talent to be able to challenge anything much higher than where they are. That said, they have earned 6 important points in the last 5 games, a strong away win against Union and a nice home win against Freiburg. Not everything is black and white, but something special will have to happen when Bayern visit. Some key players are out, Zivzivadze and Beck. That means that the hope of getting something lies with Pieringer, Honask and Ibrahimovic.

Bayern Munich – goal and entertainment guarantor

There are rarely less than 2 goals when Bayern are on the pitch. In fact, there have been over 2.5 goals in all home and away matches. There have been over 3.5 goals in 4 of 6 away matches, so goals when Bayern are involved are as close to guaranteed as they get. Bayern come to Heidenheim with some absences – Neuer is out, Olise is uncertain after eye surgery and Jackson is unavailable due to AFCON. But that's when Bayern have the quality they have in the squad. Kane is ready, shooting star Karl is ready, Luis Díaz is sparkling at the moment and Urbig is replacing Neuer nicely in goal. Anything other than 3 points will naturally be a disappointment for Kompany's team here.

Conclusion: the challenge of finding good odds in Bayern's matches is real, but not impossible

Because if you look at goals, you need over 3.5 goals to get interesting odds. There is not much to gain from Bayern winning and scoring more than 2.5 goals. But there are other very interesting bets that do not necessarily involve Bayern goals and victory. We take a closer look at both teams scoring, goal bets and card bets, because here there are good candidates.

• Both teams to score (1.81): It's not that Heidenheim don't know where the nets are. And it's not that Bayern are pot-tight at the back, quite the opposite. Both teams have scored in 5 of Heidenheim's 7 home games, while both teams have scored in 3 of Bayern's 6 away games. And we saw that clearly last weekend when it went towards a loss for Bayern and 2 draws against Mainz 05 who are in last place. This is an interesting bet at very good odds.
• Over 1.5 goals in the 1st half (1.73): It is more or less 50/50 on goals in the 1st and 2nd half in Bayern's matches this season. For Heidenheim we are looking at 40% in the 1st half and 60% in the 2nd half. This bet can't be backed up by Heidenheim's last 5 either – only 1 of these has ended with over 1.5 goals in the 1st half. But in Bayern's matches, the last 4 of 5 matches (in league context) have ended with over 1.5 goals in the 1st half. Bayern always go out hard, home and away, so it is easy for Heidenheim to get a quick slap in the face. Nice bet at nice odds, but perhaps more of a candidate for a side bet.
• Over 1.5 cards to Heidenheim (1.76): This fits quite well into the predicted match picture. Heidenheim will defend and focus on counterattacks. They will naturally get high pressure against them. This bet is simply based on a Heidenheim that can quickly have a tough day at work where it can become more and more sloppy with tackles and what comes with it beyond the 2nd half. Statistically, Heidenheim has received over 1.5 cards in the last 4 of 5 league matches - then this bet is even better supported at very decent odds.

Here it is easy and straightforward to land on a card game. Good odds, predicted match picture and recent statistics support this choice well.

Germany at 17:30: Heidenheim - Bayern Munich: Over 1.5 cards to Heidenheim (1.76)

Alternative game:

Germany at 17:30: Heidenheim - Bayern Munich: both teams score (1.81)