Hellas Verona – Genoa

Serie A remaining and nerves on the outside of the shirts, the stage is set for a showdown that smells of both green grass and yellow cards. In the northern Italian football hotbed, with Verona from Veneto and Genoa from Liguria, this is primarily about survival.

Both teams are in that part of the table where every point counts, and where margins are often decided by dueling rather than the finest combination play. This is not a night for silk feet – this is a night for will, structure and rawness.

Hellas Verona – all's fair in love and war

Hellas Verona are fighting for their lives in an attempt to renew their contract in Serie A, and it doesn't seem like they have any plans to change their strategy. They continue to hand out beatings to everyone who shows up. Unfortunately, it doesn't always result in the same number of points, but the numbers speak for themselves; 2.25 cards per game and a whopping 15.71 free kicks on average.

Interim coach Paolo Sammarco hasn't performed miracles, with four points in five games, but he has at least given the team a touch of structure. But even though the team is no longer bottom, the gap to safety is seven points - a formidable task with ten rounds remaining. Still, Sammarco can be sure of one thing; the players give it their all. Always.

Led by card-collectors like Belghali, Frese, Akpa-Akpro, Al Musrati, Gagliardini and Orban, the Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi will smell burnt. The injury list is long – Serdar, Bernede, Slotsager, Bella-Kochap, Lirola and Lovric are still out – but that has almost become normal this season. Therefore, Sammarco is likely to choose the same starting lineup that impressively beat Bologna last week.

Genoa – Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde

At Genoa CFC, led by Daniele De Rossi, the season has been very much a two-part affair. Apart from Atalanta, no team has provided greater contrasts between home and away. It is a fact that Verona clings to, and which perhaps gives them increased belief in victory.

The victory against De Rossi's old employer was perfectly orchestrated and sent the team six points over the line – a small respite, but far from a guarantee. So here too, there is a battle to be fought. Leo Østigård rules the central defence with authority, and although he has been solid, he is also a player who collects cards. Marcandalli, Norton-Cuffy and – incredibly – Ruslan Malinovskyi also contribute on that front. The latter is perhaps best remembered as a shooting midfielder in Atalanta and Marseille, but has shown a more uncompromising side this season.

Genoa average 1.86 cards and 13.32 free kicks per game – not quite on Verona's level, but close enough to promise a temperature. Tommaso Baldanzi is still out with an injury, Patrizio Masini is serving a suspension, but Lorenzo Colombo and Junior Messias represent an offensive threat that can tip the game.

Conclusion and gaming tips

We can't give a card/free kick tip without looking at today's referee, and Matteo Marchetti is fortunately the generous type. On average, he hands out four cards and blows for 24.44 free kicks per match, so it's probably not him.

When he refereed Verona earlier this year, he gave 15 free kicks at Verona alone. Unfortunately, he has not refereed Genoa so far, but when these teams met last year, it ended with 28 and 30 free kicks respectively – and four and five cards. So the numbers point in a clear direction; this will not be a game for the sensitive. It will be a game for the uncompromising. For teams fighting for their lives, for coaches fighting for their jobs, and for players who know that every tackle can be the difference between hope and despair.

Italy at 12:30: Verona – Genoa: Over 24.5 free kicks (1.76)

Alternative game:

Italy at 12:30: Verona – Genoa: Over 4.5 goals (2.12)