Germany–Portugal

Shortly after the roars of joy have died down at the Allianz Arena, after PSG held a playhouse with Inter, the mighty stadium is once again ready for another football party as Germany clash with Portugal in the semi-finals of the UEFA Nations League. Two teams with offensive qualities, historic rivalries and much to prove meet in a match that could become a classic. With class players on both sides and a place in the final at stake, everything is set for an intense and goal-oriented showdown under the floodlights of Munich.

Germany: Home field advantage and historic advantage

Germany head into this Nations League semi-final with high expectations – and solid form. After an impressive group win in League A, Group 3 – ahead of the Netherlands, Hungary and Bosnia-Herzegovina – Julian Nagelsmann's men have truly bounced back from the low morale that prevailed before last summer's European Championship on home soil. In this tournament, they have won four and drawn two, with a strong 18:4 goal difference.

In the quarter-final against Italy, Germany showed both their offensive strength and defensive fragility. They led 5-1 on aggregate after the first half of the second leg, but conceded three goals after half-time – and were saved by VAR, which overturned an Italian penalty in extra time. Still, it was enough to secure advancement, and it helped to reinforce the belief that Nagelsmann's project is on the right track. At home, Germany have been rock-solid: only one loss in their last eleven – against Spain in the European Championship quarter-finals. The mood is set for another great evening for the home crowd.

Joshua Kimmich (who is also playing his 100th international) is in solid form and showed class against Italy with one goal and four assists over two games. Marc-André ter Stegen is back in goal after a nine-month injury break. Whether it is a chess move to pull him straight into goal ahead of Baumann or Nübel remains to be seen, but he at least has Nagelmann's full confidence. The injury list is long, however, with profiles such as Antonio Rüdiger, Nico Schlotterbeck, Jamal Musiala, and Yann Bisseck out. Kai Havertz is also not at risk heading into this match. Jonathan Burkardt is also uncertain heading into the match.

Historically, Germany have had complete control over Portugal in recent times – they have won the last five meetings, including in both the World Cup and European Championships – and are now aiming for the final in their first Nations League play-off appearance.

Key statistics

• Undefeated in the Nations League with 4 wins and 2 draws.
• Scored 18 goals and conceded 4 in the group stage.
• Beat Italy in the quarterfinals with a 5-4 over 2 games.
• Marc-André ter Stegen back as first-choice goalkeeper.
• Several key players out with injuries, including Musiala, Rüdiger and Schlotterbeck.

Portugal: In search of new glory with Ronaldo at the forefront

Portugal is the only nation in this play-off to have won the UEFA Nations League previously – in 2019. They have been solid in the group stage of this edition, where they went undefeated through a group with Croatia, Scotland and Poland – and recorded a 13:5 goal difference.

However, it has not been without drama: In the quarter-finals against Denmark, they lost the first leg 0–1 and looked to be out when the score was 2–2 at the end of the second leg. But Francisco Trincão saved the day with an equaliser just before the end and a goal in extra time, sending Portugal through.

Roberto Martínez has received mixed reviews as national team manager. Last year's European Championship was disappointing, with a defeat to Georgia and a narrow penalty shootout win against Slovenia before they were eliminated by France. There is also uncertainty surrounding his decision to consistently start Cristiano Ronaldo, who faces a team he has never beaten – and who appears to be reaching the end of his international career. Ronaldo now has 219 caps and could record his 220th in Munich. Nothing short of impressive, but whether it is in the best interest of the team for him to start is questionable.

The midfield, however, is strong and flexible, with Bernardo Silva celebrating his 100th game, as well as PSG duo João Neves and Vitinha in great form after Champions League success. Diogo Costa is stable at the back, while Rodrigo Mora has been called up as a replacement for the injured Geovany Quenda.

Although Portugal has a well-built and technically strong team, they must now break a grim statistic: since 2000 they have not beaten Germany in five attempts – and they lost 2–4 in the previous meeting during Euro 2020.

Key statistics

• Won Group A1 in the Nations League with 4 wins and 2 draws.
• Scored 13 goals and conceded 5 in the group stage.
• Beat Denmark in the quarterfinals after extra time.
• Cristiano Ronaldo still a threat in front of goal.

Conclusion: Two offensive forces should mean goals

These are two of the top-scoring teams in the 2024–25 Nations League, and everything points to a goal-rich affair. Germany has an explosive midfield and good width offensively, but their defensive structure could be vulnerable – especially in the absence of Rüdiger and Schlotterbeck. Portugal will try to control the tempo through their strong midfield, but their reliance on an aging Ronaldo in attack could be a hindrance. It is mainly goal play that is relevant here, but there are also cards seen in what is an important match. Slavko Vincic is tasked with keeping control of the game, and he is averaging 3.71 cards per game. In Germany's last 3, there have been 5 cards on average (of which 2.33 for Germany) and in Portugal's last 3, there have been 3.33 (of which 2.00 for Portugal). We get over 4.5 cards at 1.79, over 2.5 to Germany at 2.33 and over 2.5 to Portugal at 1.95. All of these can be considered, but then it will be most relevant as a live bet as you get to see how the match develops.

With the home crowd behind them, solid form and psychological advantage, it is difficult to imagine Germany letting this chance slip away. Portugal has the ability to threaten – and will probably be on the scoresheet – but the overall package points in one direction. Marking may be tempting here, but goals are more tempting, so the main play will therefore be:

UEFA Nations League A Semi-Final at 21:00: Germany - Portugal: Over 2.5 goals (1.78)

Alternative games:

UEFA Nations League A Semi-Final at 21:00: Germany to win (1.89)

UEFA Nations League A Semi-Final at 21:00: Both teams score and over 2.5 goals (2.25)

Follow us closely before, during and after the match

Join our Discord server for analysis, betting tips, live discussions and odds chat before and after Norway – Italy.

Click here