Germany – Italy 23-03-2025

In a clash between two of Europe's footballing powerhouses, Germany will be looking to finish the job and secure a place in the UEFA Nations League semi-finals. Having won the first leg 2-1 away in Milan, Julian Nagelsmann's side have a solid starting position ahead of the return leg in Dortmund. Italy, meanwhile, are looking for revenge but face a tough task against an in-form Germany.

Germany: Stability under Nagelsmann gives optimism

Germany had to fight back after an early Italian goal in the first leg but eventually turned the tables with goals from Kleindienst and Goretzka, both assisted by captain Kimmich. The victory was Germany's first in Italy since 1986 and gave Julian Nagelsmann's team a mental edge ahead of the return leg in Dortmund.

Germany have now won 11 of their last 16 games and head into this match with a healthy dose of confidence. Nagelsmann's team have also proven themselves defensively, conceding just three goals in their last five Nations League games. Offensively, they have also been effective, with a 7-0 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina in November proving their attacking potential.

Tim Kleindienst now has three goals in his last three internationals, and his ability to exploit crosses could be crucial again. Kimmich is a key player in midfield, and he showed against Italy why he is the team's engine with two assists. Goretzka was the best player on the pitch in the previous match and will again be an important piece, while the offensive creativity of Musiala could cause big problems for Italy's defense.

Nagelsmann will have to do without several key players. Havertz, Henrichs, Nmecha, Pavlovic, Marc-André ter Stegen and Wirtz are all out with injuries. Wirtz is undoubtedly a big miss, but Germany have good coverage across the board, as shown in the away game. In addition, there is uncertainty about the condition of Rüdiger, but he is expected to start.

Italy: Spalletti needs response from his team

Italy's opening match was a disappointment, especially as they took an early lead through Tonali. Spalletti's men pressed hard towards the end but struggled to break through Germany's defence, finishing with an xG of 0.87. This was their second straight defeat after their defeat to France in December, and they risk being eliminated from the Nations League at the quarter-final stage.

A major challenge for Italy has been defensive problems in the second half of matches. In four of their last five Nations League matches, they have conceded goals after half-time, which is a cause for concern against a German team that often grows in the match. However, Italy have shown strength offensively, with goals in 19 of their last 20 Nations League matches. They have often started matches strongly, and with an early goal they can put pressure on the Germans and create a nervous atmosphere at Signal Iduna Park.

Sandro Tonali continues to be a driving force in Italy's midfield, scoring two goals and providing two assists in the Nations League. His partnership with Nicolò Barella will be essential to control the midfield. Offensively, Spalletti will rely on Scamacca and Raspadori to have a good day, while Frattesi could be a wild card with his ability to attack from deep. Defensively, Bastoni and Di Lorenzo will need to step up after a poor second half at San Siro.

Serie A's top scorer Retegui is still out, and Dimarco is also absent. In addition, Calafiori is struggling with an injury after the first match and could be replaced by Buongiorno. Cambiaso is back in the squad and could be given a role on the left wing, while Zaccagni is also available again after struggling with minor injuries.

A settlement with several good options

Italy will have to attack from the start to catch up to Germany's lead, and they have shown they can create chances early. Considering that the Azzurri have scored before half-time in their last 10 Nations League matches, they could easily find their way to the net early in the match. At the same time, Germany have proven tactically flexible and strong defensively under Nagelsmann. With a 2-1 lead from the first leg, we have a very exciting match ahead of us that could easily go either way. This opens up several exciting possibilities:

• Both teams to score (1.81): The first place to look is both teams to score. And there is something that sounds good about this game considering the match picture. Italy must advance, and as mentioned, they have shown a good ability to score early. If they do that here, Germany cannot sit behind. The risky thing here is that Germany may run high pressure really hard from the start and score, and then control this, something they have shown a good ability to do in the past. However, I have the most faith in a German team that tends to start a little slow and plays its way more and more into the game. The odds are good on this game and it is by no means unlikely that both teams will score.
• Italy to score over 0.5 goals (1.52): This is an exciting low odds bet. Italy need to go ahead and it is certainly not unlikely that they will score here and create excitement. The odds are too low for a valuable main bet, but is certainly an exciting candidate as a low odds bet, preferably combined with another low odds bet in another match to create good overall value.
• Most goals in the 2nd half (2.16): If we follow the trend, where we see an efficient Italy from the start and a Germany that heats up like a diesel engine, then it fits well with the most goals in the 2nd half, which we also saw at San Siro. This could be a good candidate for live betting if Italy scores early - then we could quickly get a replay of the match in Italy.
• 1 goal Asian in the 2nd half to Germany (2.31): An Asian bet on over 1 goal to Germany in the 2nd half sits nicely with good odds, based heavily on how Germany typically plays and tends to dominate the 2nd half. They have good coverage across the board and can bring in players who can make a big difference in even games. The alternative here is over 0.5 goals at 1.52, which is also nice and considered highly likely. With Italy weak in the 2nd half and Germany strong in the 2nd half, form and trend wise, this could sit nicely.
• Over 0.5 goals in the 1st half to Italy (2.54): This one definitely needs to be considered, again based heavily on the teams' tendencies. The preparations in both camps are of course that Italy will go forward straight away and build on their trend of scoring early/first, while Germany is a bit more undecided: here we get either a Germany that puts high pressure to get an early goal or a slow-starting German machine. I'm leaning mostly towards a typical German performance where they go. Therefore, this bet offers very good value, if not a main bet, then at least an alternative high-odds bet with a lower stake.
• Germany over 1.5 goals (1.81): This bet also offers good value as Germany are producing in the attack at home. The last 4 of 5 matches on German soil have ended with over 1.5 goals, and against an Italy where they have scored over 1.5 goals in the last 2 matches, where Italy must advance, it could create space and great opportunities to kill the excitement of the match.

A close match is expected with Italy putting pressure on Germany in the first half, but with Die Nationalelf's defensive stability and ability to exploit set pieces, they should be able to hold their own. With the home crowd behind them, Germany can secure a draw, which would be enough to send them through to the semi-finals. Several bets sit well here, and it is difficult to choose a main bet with the best value. There are undoubtedly several good options here, but the feeling here is that both teams score.

Nations League A quarter-final at 20:45: Germany – Italy: both teams to score (1.81)