Gateshead - Southend 05-05-2025

The final round of the National League, England's fifth tier, may not be an event people have marked off their calendars, but when we're treated to a finish like this, we have to take a closer look at the teams in action.

Analysis of the teams

Getting promoted from the National League is no easy feat. Only one team gets promoted directly, along with the winner of the play-off. So in many ways the National League is an eternal resting place for a bunch of mediocre teams. This is the bottleneck on the way into good company. And should you get through, it is just as difficult to return, as it is to leave this department. And that is why we believe both Gateshead and Southend are willing to do everything in their power to emerge victorious from this battle.

Gateshead – time to forget Ali Dia and Steve Agnew

Some may have already forgotten them. Or never knew who they were. But so small are Gateshead that promotion from the National League would be front-page news in the history books. The gang from the north have lost two FA Trophy finals behind them, but they can't beat them much more.

And now, on the last day of play, the good season is about to end in nothing. Because after a terrible spring season with 2-0-9 in the last 11, they hold the bitter 8th place. The first place that gives nothing at all. But they still have everything in their own hands, and 3 points here could be the start of something big. Our tip is that Luke Hannant, 10 goals and 15 assists this year, will play a central role.

In addition, Gateshead probably want to bury the ghost of last year. Then they finished 6th, and were supposed to participate in the qualification for promotion. But since the club could not guarantee the loan of the stadium for the next 10 years, they were not allowed to participate. This led to the departure of Marcus Dinanga and Ed Francis, the team's two best players. But now they are here again, ready to make up for last year.

Southend – economic chaos and old memories

You have to go back to 1992 to find something noteworthy to celebrate for fans of The Shrimpers. A name they carry with pride, as the maritime industry is part of their identity. Back then they were in the old 2nd division, and financial ruin was their future. Now they hold the important 7th place. And with a win or a draw they will secure a ticket to the playoffs.

But it will be tough. Gateshead won the reverse fixture last autumn, and Gateshead lead 3-2 in the head-to-head. But 1,600 Southend fans have bought tickets, and the fact that so many are travelling from Southend-on-Sea in the south to Gateshead in the north says something about the importance of this match.

In addition, Southend are in good form, with 2-2-1 in their last five. And with Scott-Morriss on the pitch, Gateshead will be under constant pressure. He has 17 goals so far this year, and listen; Gus Scott-Morriss, the team's top scorer, is a centre-back (!). Now he can also play wing-back, but there is no doubt that there are goals in that boy. And rarely has a goal-scoring game on a defender had better value.

All or nothing

Let's start with what we know; the home team MUST win. Anything else means they will end up outside the good company this year. The season will be over, and it will be another season in the fifth top tier in England. But should they win, they will swap places with Southend, and thus secure a place in the play-offs. For Southend it is the opposite. A win or a draw will be enough. A loss will send them out of the play-offs. As simple as that. And as difficult.

In terms of match plan, we can be reasonably confident that Gateshead will fly out of the blocks. But it is a little more uncertain what strategy the away team will choose. Do they park the bus and go for a draw? Do they park the bus but take the counterattacks that come when Gateshead throw everything forward? Or do they go for a win to decide this for themselves? We don't know. But we know that there is a lot at stake, and we know that both teams are willing to bleed for that 7th place.

And it helps to know that the team that really needs goals and points is playing at home. And it also helps to know that Gateshead are averaging 3.2 goals per game this year. And that they have gone over 2.5 goals in six of their last six.

Unfortunately, the numbers aren't as encouraging for the away team. Southend only average 2.4 goals per game, and although they have gone over 2.5 goals in their last two, they have 20 games over and 25 under 2.5 goals this year. And if they fall behind, it could ruin our game.

But considering what is in the pot, we think the home team will throw everything forward. And if Gateshead scores, it will be Southend who will have to attack. Because no matter what the position is, one of the teams will have everything to play for. And therefore we must try the following bet;

England at 16:00: Gateshead - Southend: Over 2.5 goals (1.67)