Analysis of:

Frølunda HC – Luleå HF 09-04-2025

Ragnar Sundberg

Written by: Ragnar Sundberg

Analysis Information
Tournament
SHL
Match start
09/04/2025 19:00
Units
4 / 10
Odds

2.25

The Swedish hockey playoffs continue, and this time we will be heading to Gothenburg's team Frølunda HC, who will be visited by Luleå HF for game number 3.

When the puck drops in Scandinavium, the score is 1-1 in games. Luleå had the advantage of having the most home games. But after Frølunda won one of the first two games, they are the ones who can decide this with home field advantage. If they win their next 3 home games, they are ready for the finals in the playoffs. We can already say that Frølunda has impressed so far. Even though they lost the first game 4-2, it was only a bad start and an ineffective last period that ruined a game they dominated for much of. In game number two they won 2-5 and were clearly the better team.

So it will be exciting to see what happens when they get back on home soil.

Frølunda HC – Semi-final last stop this year too?

Frølunda have been eliminated from the tournament in the semi-finals in the last two seasons. We think they might be thinking of doing something about that this season. The team has the experience needed to take a step up this year, and they are in the process of playing their way into form. The team finished 1 point behind their opponent in the table this year, and it is expected that this will be a close match.

Now that game number 3 is ready, as I said, the score is 1-1 in a best of 7 series. Home games are often decisive. Here I think Frølunda will have a chance. They were the best home team of all teams in the division. Considering that it will now be enough to win all the home games, we think they will go for it. They are confident on their own ice, and many good teams have had to see themselves beaten on this field. They lost somewhat surprisingly to Timrå in the first home game in the quarterfinals. But they got back up nicely, winning the next two. The results in these were a whopping 4-0 and 6-2. D

It shows that if they take it seriously, many will struggle to win here. As coach Roger Rønnberg also said after the previous match; the team brings a lot of self-confidence after the first two matches, and when you manage to win one of the two matches, the arrow clearly swings our way. It will be exciting to see if that is true, but we think he is onto something.

Luleå HF – Definitely a surprise.

There weren't many experts who had Luleå all the way up to 2nd place in the regular season this year. You actually have the feeling that this team has overachieved. We also saw in the quarterfinals that they had many even matches against Vaxjø, who they still won 4-1 in matches against in the end. But all 3 of the last matches ended in overtime. We don't think that's a strength. Because there's no doubt that they face a stronger team in this round.

They will also be taking a trip to one of the arenas they like the least. They have actually lost the last 6 games they have played away against this team. The internal statistics also show that they are struggling. They have only 2 wins in the last 10 games. Considering the ugly loss they also experienced at home last time. We don't think it will take much before it unravels here too. As I said, we think this team has overperformed. We think it stops in the semi-finals this time, and that it starts with a loss here.

Conclusion – Frølunda HC has worked best so far.

With the two away games in mind, we think Frølunda look like the better team. They bring good self-confidence, and have an exceptionally good grip on this team. They have won all their home games against Luleå this year, and we think that will continue. We get what we think are good odds on the match and try the following bets.

 

Hockey at 19:00: Frølunda HC – Luleå HF: Frølunda HC wins (2.25)

Discord server