Analysis of:
Frölunda HC – HV71 23-10-2025

Written by: Ragnar Sundberg

Analysis Information
We're going to the top of the SHL when Frølunda welcomes their guests to Scandinavium in Gothenburg. The bottom team HV71 will be visiting. Not only are they last this year, they were also last last season. We think they'll have a tough time this season as well.
Frølunda has 10 wins in 12 games. Where they have won 5 of 6 at home so far. As well as 3 home games in the Champions League Hockey. So it is without a doubt a strong home team.
HV71, on the other hand, are exceptionally weak away from home, and have 1 point on away ice so far in 5 games. This has to go the home team's way, right?
Frølunda HC – tough match schedule may be the only reason for loss
Let's not make this too exciting. There should and is a class difference between these teams. So even though Frølunda is probably a bit familiar with a tough match schedule. We think this will go the way of the home team.
We have a home team that scores a lot of goals 44 in 12 games. Which is second most in the division with one game less played. In addition, they are very greedy in the back of the field, and have only conceded 18 goals. That is clearly the least of all teams. They simply seem like a solid team this season. They have won many home games this year, and most of them by 2 goals or more. That is probably what we have to try to exploit here.
Because we don't get all the odds at home. It's now 1.60, which could be a good bet. But we think they'll win by more if it's a draw. At home they have a goal difference of 17-7 in 6 games. Where they only scored 1 goal in the game they lost. That means the rest of the games have an average of over 3 goals per game. Which isn't extremely much. But it's probably about the teams coming here falling behind. If today's opponent does the same, they won't be able to defend themselves completely. If you look at the fact that they have only conceded 7 goals in the same number of games. that's just over 1 goal per game.
Now the bottom team is coming to visit. We think this will be overrun.
Hv71 – will be the bottom team this season as well
The team is last in the table. But they still look better this season than last year. Unfortunately for them, we don't think it's good enough.
They have a young team, and the team can make strides during the season, so we're not writing them off completely. But this season has started just as badly as the last one ended. So they really need to improve if they're not going to end up last again. They've shown in individual matches this year that they can get some results. But it's primarily at home. Away, the team has lost everything. They do that here too when the opposition is of such a standard.
In their 13 games, they have only collected 10 points. There are 9 of these at home. The goal difference also tells a story here. They score well with goals. A total of 31. Which is not as bad as the table position would suggest. But they are the team that allows the second most goals of all with a total of 44 goals against. Here lies a bit of the problem, for a team that often tries to defend itself to victory.
They are simply not good enough. The goal difference away is 11-23. Which is much weaker than the 20-21 they have at home.
Conclusion – class difference
As we wrote at the beginning, there will be a class difference between these teams, unless the home team is facing a tough match schedule due to their Champions League Hockey.
We don't think so here, as they have had 5 days of rest since the last match. Considering Hv71's away form, this should be an "easy" match for Frølunda, and we try the following bet.
Hockey at 19:00: Frölunda HC – HV71: Frölunda HC wins -1.5 goals (2.01)
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