Fritz – Alcaraz 11-07-2025

Wimbledon semi-final on Centre Court – 5 sets away from being one step closer to the biggest title in tennis. First time for Taylor Fritz, third time in a row for Carlos Alcaraz.

Five-setters are something special in tennis, in ordinary three-set matches you often see surprising results – the path to the goal is relatively short. But this happens far less often in five-set matches.

To use a simple and widely used football analogy; this is not a sprint, it's a marathon.

But this year's Wimbledon has offered many surprises, favorite after favorite has fallen flat on its face and gone astray - could it happen again, in a semi-final?

Taylor Fritz

A hard-hitting American whose strengths are his serve and his fearsome forehand. He averages a first serve of over 200 km/h, and he hits hard, flat and precise with his forehand – perfectly suited to fast courts.

A so-called "western grip" is the most extreme forehand grip you can have - you get a violent angle on the racket and with it you can generate enormous amounts of topspin. Fritz not only has a western grip, he's a little bit beyond that too. So what does that mean?

Basically, it is a grip that requires a lot of spin, but Fritz has a very unique and unorthodox forehand technique that allows him to hit flat and hard even with that grip, a shot that can be difficult to predict and which often ends up completely behind the baseline.

This is a natural technique for the American and he masters it very well. Fritz also has a solid two-handed backhand, although his main weapons are serve and forehand.

What about weaknesses? Here I would like to highlight one thing: footwork and movements.

There's no getting around the fact that Fritz has an Achilles' heel. At times, it can look like Leif Juster in his prime is staggering around on the pitch. It doesn't become apparent as long as he's allowed to dictate the game with his strengths – but as soon as his strengths are challenged, it immediately looks worse.

Carlos Alcaraz

This is a young gentleman who really needs no further introduction. The greatest natural tennis talent among current players, a man who is completely devoid of tennis technical weaknesses.

He has perhaps the best forehand on the entire ATP tour, a brilliant two-handed backhand, a serve that is right up there, has a sensitivity and technique in his strokes that no one else comes close to, the world's best dropshot player - and we could go on and on.

Are there any weaknesses? In my opinion, it doesn't matter in terms of tennis skills, but there is always a downside; he tends to switch off a bit and lose focus – at times maybe a little too much play and fun?

Conclusion:

Alcaraz is perhaps the worst player for Fritz to face in terms of skill. He can neutralize Fritz's serve with a brilliant return game, he will challenge Fritz's mobility with drop shots and variation in the game - what does Fritz really have to offer here? He plays more evenly than Alcaraz. So far in 2025 Fritz/Alcaraz:

• Points won on first serve: 79.4%/73.2%
• Serve aces per match: 11.8/5.4
• Double faults per match: 1.5/3.2

With the level Fritz has shown so far this year, and not least so far in Wimbledon, I think this match will go out and be much more even than the odds suggest. There is a clear advantage for Alcaraz in most areas, but the stability of Fritz's game - as well as his strengths on serve and forehand - will be a challenge for a sometimes a little unfocused and playful Carlito.

The value lies with Taylor Fritz, and we play:

Tennis 11-07 at 14:30: Fritz – Alcaraz over 36.5 games (1.87)

Alternative bet for the daring: Fritz +1.5 sets (2.58)