Analysis of:

Fredrikstad – Viking – 23-11-2025

Anders

Written by: Anders

Analysis Information
Sport
Tournament
Elite Series
Match start
23/11/2025 19:15
Units
5 / 10
Odds

1.63

The excitement and nerves are palpable when Viking visits a strong-form Fredrikstad. And the fans have really mobilized, the 2700 available away tickets were sold out and a generous home team has opened up one long side for additional away fans. For Viking, of course, one thing matters: 3 points. But Fredrikstad is by no means a dream opponent at this stage of the season, the home team is on an upward curve and is undefeated since October 1. The last match in the penultimate round of this year's Elite Series could not have been better!

Fredrikstad – Here to spoil the party

Fredrikstad welcomes Viking with a nice form curve in their luggage. It is also worth looking closer behind the form curve, as teams such as Strømsgodset, Kristiansund, Sarpsborg and HamKam are lurking here, in addition to Sandefjord. Strictly speaking, this year's Fredrikstad edition will take on teams. A gold-chasing Viking will be something else. In addition, Fredrikstad does not have much else other than as high a table position as possible to play for. As of now, they are in 5th place and Hagen's main focus will probably be full professionalism in the last two games to maintain that position, with both Sandefjord, Vålerenga and Rosenborg chasing behind them.

The squad is largely injury-free, apart from Hummervoll-Nunez who has been an important contributor this year. It is expected that they will go out in their winning 3-5-2 formation, alternatively 5-3-2 as we saw in the previous home game against Kristiansund. Considering the match picture here, it could easily lean towards the latter to create defensive security to a greater extent. Because they know that Viking will come into play offensively with all guns ready in the 4-3-3 formation.

Viking – Form, confidence and belief are there – but are nerves taking over?

Viking has convinced when the pressure has now increased to a greater and greater extent with each week that has passed since the 3-0 victory over Brann. Gold hopes have been lit, extinguished and relit during this period. It is lit to the highest degree now, but they know they have to take 3 points in Fredrikstad. There is hardly a worse challenge than "having to take 3 points". Naturally, Jensen and Aarsheim phrase it in a completely different way and get the dark blues mentally set for the task based on the good football team they are and the form curve they are in. Fredrikstad is always a challenging opponent, especially in Fredrikstad. Last year, Viking lost 3-2 here, but the team has built up experience and quality in one year. In the spring, Viking won 3-0 in Stavanger.

Viking is missing D'Agostino for this match, while Berisha is back to full fitness. He could be important in a possible final push. Other than that, the squad is injury-free and very ready for the task ahead of them, if we believe local media.

Conclusion: This will be even

This will be an even match, perhaps a bit like when Viking visited Strømsgodset. Here, skill, patience and precision are needed for the away team. The home team will not necessarily be behind, but it will think that Fredrikstad will not drive at the same pace as Viking, but rather take them on transitions when Viking is off-balance. Taking everything into account, the following games are considered in more detail:

  • Over 2.5 goals (1.58): This is the "safe" option and in that sense it's good. With a chasing team, who produce goals on a regular basis, against a team that works very well at home, it could easily be goals either way. Incidentally, there have only been over 2.5 goals in 6 of Fredrikstad's 14 home games this season, but Viking will have over 2.5 goals in 11 of 14 away games. It can go either way of course, but my gut feeling leans mostly towards overscoring considering the conditions for the game.
  • Both teams to score (1.63): This is quite attractive. Both teams have scored in 8 of Fredrikstad's 14 home games, while there have been BTS in 12 of Viking's 14 away games. If we take the last 4 meetings in a series context between these, 3 out of 4 have ended with BTS. Viking must, as I said, Fredrikstad can take them off balance, as many teams have done this season, so that we get goals both ways here is absolutely realistic. In addition, there are quite decent odds on exactly that.
  • Over 9.5 corners (1.65): There have been some unstable tendencies for both teams with corners in the last 5. Fredrikstad with everything from 3 in total in the match (against KBK) to 13 in the previous round against Sarpsborg. The average is 9.8 for the record. For Viking's part - one of this year's corner guarantors - it has also been a bit up and down lately. 8 in total in the match against HamKam in the previous round and 20 in the round before that against Strømsgodset. The average for Viking's last 5 is 10.2. The match in Stavanger ended with 12 corners. Especially based on the fact that Viking has to move forward, the shots come from all angles, similar to what we saw against Strømsgodset. A nice game, but it's not where the gut feeling is closest in terms of the main game.
  • Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals (1.95): If you are looking for higher odds, you can combine the first two bets. If you are going to make an honest attempt to look into the crystal ball, the undersigned sees the result as 1-2. Time will tell, I am not a wizard last time I checked.

This will be an even and entertaining match with a lot at stake. All things considered, the following bets are the most attractive as main bets:

Norway at 19:15: Fredrikstad – Viking: Both teams to score (1.63)

Alternative games:

Norway at 19:15: Fredrikstad – Viking: Over 9.5 corners (1.65)

Norway at 19:15: Fredrikstad – Viking: Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals (1.95)

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